Juniors Success?

[summer]

Does anyone know where to find information on the success rate of Juniors?

% of players who make it to DI?

% of players who make it to DIII?

% of players who go to college with no hockey?

% of players who play other hockey with no college?

% of players who burn out, no hockey, no college?

[Gopher Blog]

How do you truly determine "success rate" of juniors? There are so many different factors that it is impossible to say success is truly because of one thing.

For instance, some kids have the D1 commitment done before they even play a second of junior hockey. They may still end up playing junior hockey but they got the scholarship before that. So do we say junior hockey was "successful" there since a kid still ends up playing in the league later?

And what determines "burn out"? Do you simply mean kids who age out and have no options left? Or do you truly mean "burn out" like they get sick of hockey?

It just isn't cut and dry to make obvious conclusions. No doubt it helps but it varies with each case. I highly doubt you'd be able to make any accurate statistical references with some of those categories because of all the different variables.

[summer]

How do you truly determine "success rate" of juniors? There are so many different factors that it is impossible to say success is truly because of one thing.

For instance, some kids have the D1 commitment done before they even play a second of junior hockey. They may still end up playing junior hockey but they got the scholarship before that. So do we say junior hockey was "successful" there since a kid still ends up playing in the league later?

And what determines "burn out"? Do you simply mean kids who age out and have no options left? Or do you truly mean "burn out" like they get sick of hockey?

It just isn't cut and dry to make obvious conclusions. No doubt it helps but it varies with each case. I highly doubt you'd be able to make any accurate statistical references with some of those categories because of all the different variables.

I would just like to see some data, whatever there is. I would include DI commitments beforehand, because that can change. I thought burnout was obvious; no hockey, no college, for whatever reason.

You see many kids going to Juniors, either because a college suggests it or demands it for a scholarship, or going on their own hoping for a full ride, but you know all don't make it. Some go to DIII, where do the others go, and it would be nice to see the percentages.

[mulefarm]

Both the USHL and NAHL have commintments on their websites.

[The Exiled One]

Does anyone know where to find information on the success rate of Juniors?

% of players who make it to DI?

% of players who make it to DIII?

% of players who go to college with no hockey?

% of players who play other hockey with no college?

% of players who burn out, no hockey, no college?

You have to narrow the parameters. From which season(s)? Which junior league(s)?

Without looking it up, I'd say the vast majority of kids who played USHL four years ago went on to D1, D3, ECHL, AHL, NHL, or (depending on your definition of higher level) a CHL team. I'd be shocked if it was less than 85%.

[seek & destroy]

Both the USHL and NAHL have commintments on their websites.

Most of the Junior hockey teams try to lure the interest of players (and their parents) by showing how many players they have "advanced" to college teams. To be honest, most players that advance to D1 get there because of their hard work prior to arriving at those teams and not because of what those teams have done. It is also true that many of the D1 commitments shown were already committed prior to making a USHL team. Nothing wrong with them showing their names but it is interesting how they seem to want to take credit for their advancement when it was already done before they arrived.

As far as the D3 commitments that they like to show, they are somewhat meaningless. D3 teams do not give athletic scholarships so when a player says he has committed to a D3 team it really means that he is going to school there and going to tryout and hope that he makes the team. Nowadays, D3 teams are made up almost exclusively of former USHL and NAHL players who are 20-21 years old and are unable to play Juniors any longer. That means that D3 hockey has really improved but there are a lot of former USHL and NAHL players who tryout and don't make the team that they "committed" to.

[summer]

Does anyone know where to find information on the success rate of Juniors?

% of players who make it to DI?

% of players who make it to DIII?

% of players who go to college with no hockey?

% of players who play other hockey with no college?

% of players who burn out, no hockey, no college?

You have to narrow the parameters. From which season(s)? Which junior league(s)?

Without looking it up, I'd say the vast majority of kids who played USHL four years ago went on to D1, D3, ECHL, AHL, NHL, or (depending on your definition of higher level) a CHL team. I'd be shocked if it was less than 85%.

Seems everyone is over-thinking this one, Is the data not available? That's fine. Is the data not available because the Junior teams don't want the truth to come out? We can find the successes, but what about the others?

So, if 85 out of 100 made it to a higher level, how many played DI, how many DIII? The rest would be hockey, no college, and the 15 would be no hockey. How many of those went to college?

In this age of instant news and instant statistics one would think this would be broken down so players and their parents could see the realistic value of Juniors.

[seek & destroy]

Does anyone know where to find information on the success rate of Juniors?

% of players who make it to DI?

% of players who make it to DIII?

% of players who go to college with no hockey?

% of players who play other hockey with no college?

% of players who burn out, no hockey, no college?

You have to narrow the parameters. From which season(s)? Which junior league(s)?

Without looking it up, I'd say the vast majority of kids who played USHL four years ago went on to D1, D3, ECHL, AHL, NHL, or (depending on your definition of higher level) a CHL team. I'd be shocked if it was less than 85%.

Seems everyone is over-thinking this one, Is the data not available? That's fine. Is the data not available because the Junior teams don't want the truth to come out? We can find the successes, but what about the others?

So, if 85 out of 100 made it to a higher level, how many played DI, how many DIII? The rest would be hockey, no college, and the 15 would be no hockey. How many of those went to college?

In this age of instant news and instant statistics one would think this would be broken down so players and their parents could see the realistic value of Juniors.

Right on the main page of the USHL site (www.ushl.com) is this years commitment totals: 283 to D1 schools. There are 16 teams so that averages out to just over 17 players per team. Many of those were already signed before going to the USHL but that at least starts you out on your search for stats.

If you click on the link, it will also allow you to see team by team a list of ALL of each teams players that have moved on to college. I think it is pretty evident that the USHL players have good odds of playing in college whether they signed early or after starting to play USHL.

[karl(east)]

Here's an amateur's study; it's not remotely exhaustive but it gives us some good answers for a mere half hour of work.

Of the 171 players who saw ice in the USHL's Eastern Conference in 07-08 (chosen arbitrarily):

119 (73.7%) went on to play in D-1 or a higher league, which was the last stop in their careers.
10 (5.8%) wound up in Europe
5 (2.9%) made D-1 but then returned to the USHL, where their careers ended
7 (4.1%) dropped back down to the NAHL, where their careers ended
16 (9.4%) did not play more hockey after their stint in the USHL.
7 (4.1%) are scattered across lower Canadian leagues or in D-III. One of the D-III players made D-1 but dropped.
4 made the AHL (this number will probably go up as more of these players finish their college careers)
3 made the NHL (see above comment)

I hope that at least gives you a starting point. It's not hard to look up more using hockeydb.com if you want a bigger sample size, more or less recent seasons, or more details on the players' careers.

[summer]

Here's an amateur's study; it's not remotely exhaustive but it gives us some good answers for a mere half hour of work.

Of the 171 players who saw ice in the USHL's Eastern Conference in 07-08 (chosen arbitrarily):

119 (73.7%) went on to play in D-1 or a higher league, which was the last stop in their careers.
10 (5.8%) wound up in Europe
5 (2.9%) made D-1 but then returned to the USHL, where their careers ended
7 (4.1%) dropped back down to the NAHL, where their careers ended
16 (9.4%) did not play more hockey after their stint in the USHL.
7 (4.1%) are scattered across lower Canadian leagues or in D-III. One of the D-III players made D-1 but dropped.
4 made the AHL (this number will probably go up as more of these players finish their college careers)
3 made the NHL (see above comment)

I hope that at least gives you a starting point. It's not hard to look up more using hockeydb.com if you want a bigger sample size, more or less recent seasons, or more details on the players' careers.

Thanks, good stats Karl

[dlhhockey]

Here is a link with an open letter from the head of the USHL in response to some talk of them playing the CHL champion. His comments answer some of your questions and the philosophy of USA juniors.

http://thepipelineshow.blogspot.com/201 ... .html#more