Class A Rankings 12-4-11

[HShockeywatcher]

This was a crazy week. All I can say this week is that a case could be made for any of the top 4 being #1. Their seems to be a jumble of teams beating each other.

I added something this week; a team's record against Class A teams. As the season gets going, many of our teams will play Class AA, WI, ND, SD or Canada teams and I would like to have a record of what I am ranking as well; Class A.

Enjoy!

1. St Thomas Academy (1-0) [1-0]
An OT win against a private school rival shows the Cadets are probably not the dominant Class A team they were last year. They play at Aldrich next weekend against a winless (probably not by the time they play) Hill Murray team. Can things be different this year?
This week: Sat @ Hill Murray

2. Hermantown (1-0) [1-0]
An 8-0 shutout of Sauk-Rapids shows us the Hawks haven’t lost step from last year. They play Totino-Grace this week which should give us a great picture of how they do against top notch teams.
This week: Fri @ Hopkins, Sat vs Totino-Grace

3. Breck (3-0) [3-0]
Are Breck’s close wins showing that they aren’t the top team everyone thinks they are or are they just figuring things out? A section and conference game should help them get their feet back under them, we’ll see how they do at Delano, who lost to Blake in OT.
This week: Thurs vs St Paul Academy, Sat @ Delano

4. Rochester Lourdes (2-0) [1-0]
As it was last year, Lourdes’ schedule thus far hasn’t proven much more than they can win games they should. Three teams this week who are rising Class A teams but should be wins for the Eagles.
This week: Tues vs New Prague, Fri @ St Cloud Cathedral, Sat @ Little Falls

5. Duluth Marshall (2-2) [2-2]
Starting the year with two losses isn’t great, but those two losses are to the #1 and #3 teams by a total of 3 goals. They’ll have a great test this coming Saturday.
This week: Tues vs Ashland, Saturday @ Benilde-St Margaret’s

6. East Grand Forks (2-1) [2-0]
The Green Wave shoot up this week with their win against an early top ranked Totino-Grace team. Much talk about them being the team to beat in 8A just may be right. Two games this week will be very telling.
This week: Fri @ Orono, Sat @ Providence Academy

7. Totino-Grace (1-1) [1-1]
Going 1-1 against 8A opponents to start the season and leading into a week of 3 good games.
This week: Tues @ Rogers, Thurs vs Blake, Sat @ Hermantown

8. Thief River Falls (1-1-1) [1-1]
A tie game against Roseau, close loss against Totino and close win over Blake. Good team, but not a top team at this point. This week will just prove they are not a bad team, but their schedule has the potential to bring them way higher with wins.
This week: Fri @ Tartan, Sat @ St Paul Johnson

9. Virginia (2-0) [2-0]
Too high? It’s very possible, but they haven’t lost. The teams they’ve beat have had some surprise wins this season. Their coming games wouldn’t be surprising if they lost but wouldn’t prove much, while wins could help them continue to rise.
Tues vs Grand Rapids

10. St Cloud Cathedral (2-1) [2-1]
Potentially much higher than #10 in the class with their only loss the season opener to Breck. Since then they have outscored opponents 16-2. Their first 4 games are on the road; their 5th game of the season this week is their home opener against Lourdes at the MAC on Friday. A win (or a close loss) will mean a huge jump for them.
This week: Tues @ Little Falls, Fri vs Rochester Lourdes

11. Blake (3-2) [2-1]
Looking at the Bears’ first 5 games I predicted them to be 5-0 at this point, with certain games being much more convincing. Needing OT to beat Delano, getting blown out by a down Cretin team and losing to TRF wasn’t expected. What is surprising about their schedule is the Bears don’t play at home until January. After that, they have 6 away games, all conference games. Everyone outside the program is expecting a loss this week at Totino; we’ll see what happens.
This week: Thurs @ Totino-Grace

12. Duluth Denfeld (2-1) [0-0]
Well, the Hunters haven’t played any Class A teams yet…so anything is really speculation at this point. 2 Class A opponents this week…but they could be 5-1 after this week and not rise too much.
This week: Tues @ Greenway, Fri @ South St Paul, Sat @ St Francis|

13. Mahtomedi (1-1) [1-1]
Cose home loss to Breck and win over Rogers don’t show much about the Zephyrs. The next few weeks won’t help much beyond common opponents with some teams higher than them.
This week: Tues @ Tartan, Sat @ Simley

14. Rogers (1-1) [1-1]
Very little known thus far and this week won’t help, unless they win. Their next 5 games are at home, before having 8 of 9 on the road.
This week: Tues vs Totino-Grace

15. Orono (1-0-1) [1-0]
Having your lone Class A game be a win against Warroad is never a bad sign. Can they follow it up with another win against 8A team and show they are a real 2A threat?


Teams to watch
Warroad (1-1) [1-1]
Huge drop here because of a loss to Orono. Orono’s only game, so it’s tough to tell much more. The next three weeks could rise them into the top 5 with wins in certain games.
This week: Tues vs Lake of the Woods, Thurs @ Park Rapids, Sat vs Grand Rapids

Hibbing/Chisholm (2-2) [2-2]
The Bluejackets’ close win over the Flyers isn’t looking so great anymore and the loss to Mound is even worse. Keeping it close with Marshall is a good sign.
This week: Fri @ International Falls, Sat @ Roseau

Delano (2-1) [1-1]
The Tigers could be much higher as their loss is in OT to Blake, but I’m not sold on Blake yet and their win over PA wasn’t too convincing. How will they do against Breck this week?
This week: Thurs vs St Michael-Albertville, Sat vs Breck


If I got any schedules wrong this week (or records), please PM me and I'll fix them. The teams I have to watch are teams that are potentially top 10 teams that we have little data on thus far. If you know of one I've missed, or of one around your area that may not be top ten, but could be a surprise in their section, with a good record with their schedule, let me know.

[Redlight]

Scratching my head here on your top three. Why is Saint Thomas #1 when they barely beat a Marshall team that Breck beat by 2 goals, which appeared to deceiving as they were never behind or tied and at one point had a 4 goal lead. And Hermantown crushed their only opponent. Seems that someone is a little caught up in the mighty Cadet legend vs. the team that they have this year. STA should be down at 3 with Hermantown or Breck at 1 with the other at 2. It will probably become clearer this week as STA will likely lose to HM. Breck should sweep and if Hermantown does as well, they should be the clear cut #1.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Scratching my head here on your top three. Why is Saint Thomas #1 when they barely beat a Marshall team that Breck beat by 2 goals, which appeared to deceiving as they were never behind or tied and at one point had a 4 goal lead. And Hermantown crushed their only opponent. Seems that someone is a little caught up in the mighty Cadet legend vs. the team that they have this year. STA should be down at 3 with Hermantown or Breck at 1 with the other at 2. It will probably become clearer this week as STA will likely lose to HM. Breck should sweep and if Hermantown does as well, they should be the clear cut #1.

I agree, Breck #1, STA #2,

[HShockeywatcher]

Glad you asked many of these points early on:
a. They were 1, 2, 3 last week (for reasons explained last week) and they all won. Generally, I won't say "team A beat team X by more than team B did so they are better." Meaning of margin is very hard to determine beyond
b. A team that loses to a good AA team is not necessarily worse than a team that beats mediocre-decent A teams, or the similar. Should team A lose to a good team in the same week team B beats a worse team, with no other factors that will not usually change much in comparison of the two.
c. For the most part, in my book, a win is a win. An OT win doesn't rank much higher than an OT loss to me. But at the end of the day, a win's a win and a loss's a loss.

As for these three specifically, in my opinion:
All 3 are undefeated. All have won their games. St Thomas has played one game, so it's hard to tell what letting up a goal with a few seconds left in regulation and winning in OT means. If I had to guess, I would say at this point Hermantown is probably the favorite this year. They didn't lose much and were quite good last year. Breck is really questionable at this point in my opinion. Allowing 9 goals to Maht/DM isn't great.

Anyway, just my opinion; there are plenty of teams that were upset this week, we'll see how things pan out as the season goes on. It always makes for good discussion.

[HShockeywatcher]

Blake 4
Totino 3
OT

Totino 6
TRF 4

TRF 4
Blake 2

A beat B, B beat C, C beat A.

Earlier:
Blake 6
Delano 5

Results of Hermantown/Totino and Breck/Delano Saturday will be real telling.

[coach39]

[quote="HShockeywatcher"]Blake 4
Totino 3
OT

Totino 6
TRF 4

TRF 4
Blake 2

A beat B, B beat C, C beat A.

Earlier:
Blake 6
Delano 5

Results of Hermantown/Totino and Breck/Delano Saturday will be real telling.[/quote]

You also have the Lourdes/Cathedral game in St Cloud tonight as well. That should tell you a little bit about both teams.

[HShockeywatcher]

You also have the Lourdes/Cathedral game in St Cloud tonight as well. That should tell you a little bit about both teams.

Oh yes, I Cathedral win would really mix things up.

Unrelated, there's the Orono/EGF game tonight as well.

When BSM was undefeated the BSM/DM game seemed decided, but anyone could win that one as well.
Lourdes/Little Falls on Saturday could be good.

[Redlight]

You also have the Lourdes/Cathedral game in St Cloud tonight as well. That should tell you a little bit about both teams.

Oh yes, I Cathedral win would really mix things up.

Unrelated, there's the Orono/EGF game tonight as well.

When BSM was undefeated the BSM/DM game seemed decided, but anyone could win that one as well.
Lourdes/Little Falls on Saturday could be good.

Regardless of what happened against Burnsville, BSM will win this one by at least a field goal and the game will probably end in running time. To take the prediction a step further, BSM's top line alone should score as many or more than DM.

[Goldy23]

Scratching my head here on your top three. Why is Saint Thomas #1 when they barely beat a Marshall team that Breck beat by 2 goals, which appeared to deceiving as they were never behind or tied and at one point had a 4 goal lead. And Hermantown crushed their only opponent. Seems that someone is a little caught up in the mighty Cadet legend vs. the team that they have this year. STA should be down at 3 with Hermantown or Breck at 1 with the other at 2. It will probably become clearer this week as STA will likely lose to HM. Breck should sweep and if Hermantown does as well, they should be the clear cut #1.

I agree, Breck #1, STA #2,

I agree with 50%.

Breck #1
Hermantown #2
STA #3 IF they don't get beat up too baad by HM tomorrow. If they win then I would agree that they deserve #2.

[HShockeywatcher]

Scratching my head here on your top three. Why is Saint Thomas #1 when they barely beat a Marshall team that Breck beat by 2 goals, which appeared to deceiving as they were never behind or tied and at one point had a 4 goal lead. And Hermantown crushed their only opponent. Seems that someone is a little caught up in the mighty Cadet legend vs. the team that they have this year. STA should be down at 3 with Hermantown or Breck at 1 with the other at 2. It will probably become clearer this week as STA will likely lose to HM. Breck should sweep and if Hermantown does as well, they should be the clear cut #1.

I agree, Breck #1, STA #2,

I agree with 50%.

Breck #1
Hermantown #2
STA #3 IF they don't get beat up too baad by HM tomorrow. If they win then I would agree that they deserve #2.

I don't have the time at the moment to look at all the numbers (although I will later) but St Thomas returns their #5-9 scorers from last year as well as their junior goalie who helped them win state last year.

Sure, losing the the top 4 scorers isn't great, but they had many sophomores and juniors on the team last year who are back and will contribute.

They have had all of ONE game thus far. In that game they came back from being down 0-2 to Judd Peterson, scored 3 goals in a row and Marshall had to score with 14 seconds left to tie it. Then they ended up winning by a goal. Breck beat that same team by 2 goals, while allowing 5 GA.
When you break it down Breck scored 1.4 goals for every goal they allowed while St Thomas scored 1.33. It was Breck's second game and St Thomas' first. All this put together, my opinion is that the team who won state last year and is still undefeated should still be considered the team to beat.

How does a team getting second in state, getting older and beating a down team 8-0 jump them over the undefeated team who beat them last year?

[PuckRanger]

How does a team getting second in state, getting older and beating a down team 8-0 jump them over the undefeated team who beat them last year?

I would argue that you answered your own question above. Hermantown didn't lose their top 4 scorers. Last year is last year, this year is this year - thus you have to go with what looks like the best team now, not based on the fact that STA won last year's championship. They just aren't the same teams.

Even if you subscribe to that philosophy, Hermantown lost to STA by one goal --in overtime-- in the championship. Since Hermantown has more coming back, I just can't see the logic in putting STA at #1. In addition, the results so far this year do nothing to say otherwise and in fact probably lean more towards backing this up.

[HShockeywatcher]

How does a team getting second in state, getting older and beating a down team 8-0 jump them over the undefeated team who beat them last year?

I would argue that you answered your own question above. Hermantown didn't lose their top 4 scorers. Last year is last year, this year is this year - thus you have to go with what looks like the best team now, not based on the fact that STA won last year's championship. They just aren't the same teams.

Even if you subscribe to that philosophy, Hermantown lost to STA by one goal --in overtime-- in the championship. Since Hermantown has more coming back, I just can't see the logic in putting STA at #1. In addition, the results so far this year do nothing to say otherwise and in fact probably lean more towards backing this up.

a. As stated last week (and last year) I started my rankings based off of LPH's rankings that had (and still has) it Sta/Breck/Htown, in that order. I bumped the Hawks above Breck on my list because I think on paper they are the best of the 3.
b. Basing off that, there has been nothing yet to warrant changing order from the 5 games total that have been played. Week 1 they were St Thomas, Hermantown, Breck, then all three teams won their games...no reason to change the order.

If you were to really rank them in a vacuum and start totally fresh then Hermantown would be the odd man out by far, the 8-0 win they have shows very little. But that's not the case, we know something about them.

[BleedRed]

How does a team getting second in state, getting older and beating a down team 8-0 jump them over the undefeated team who beat them last year?[/quote]

This is how. Hermantown was in a rebuilding year last year. In their rebuilding year they took the state champ Eagles to OT and lost with 5 seconds left. They took 2nd in State in Class A and that game also went into OT. Easily could have been their game. They will be better than they were last year. They graduated their #1 points player in Skrbich, but several (Thomas. Mattson, etc) are ready to take his place at #1. Out of 12 forwards, only 1 sophmore and he is 4th line and good. Same at D. 1 sophmore out of 6 and he is good. Hermantown is strong and deep at forward and expecially defense. The defense on the team is steller and it will be tough to score on them in 5-5 hockey. Also, these kids are neighbors and have played together for many years. HShockeywatcher Hermantown is a small community team and not a AAA private metro school team. Herm develops their players from the ice mite level and they play for their HS with pride. I is amazing to me that this small community can even compete with the private schools. It's like rink level vs AAA. When a public small community has a team that can compete against these privates, give them some credit. Not many single A small community teams can.

[PuckRanger]

a. As stated last week (and last year) I started my rankings based off of LPH's rankings that had (and still has) it Sta/Breck/Htown, in that order. I bumped the Hawks above Breck on my list because I think on paper they are the best of the 3.
b. Basing off that, there has been nothing yet to warrant changing order from the 5 games total that have been played. Week 1 they were St Thomas, Hermantown, Breck, then all three teams won their games...no reason to change the order.

If you were to really rank them in a vacuum and start totally fresh then Hermantown would be the odd man out by far, the 8-0 win they have shows very little. But that's not the case, we know something about them.

I would never say to rank them in a vacuum. But you should't give this year's teams a rank based on last year's teams results. The best you can do is try to factor in what has changed for each team and go from there. Common sense has to come into play at some point.

Also, at some point you need to stray from the LPH rankings... otherwise you could just repost theirs all the time. Many of those same arguments can be made for other teams further down the rankings.

BTW, don't put too much stock in LPH's preseason rankings... a good example why is that they had the Eveleth-Gilbert girls team ranked 8th in the state in their preseason poll. That team is now 0-10 and has been outscored 68-5 and has been shutout 6 times and might be in the top 8 worst teams in the state. This is exactly why you can't rank based on last year.

[rainier]

I hear what you're saying, BleedRed, but wasn't Skrbich a Proctor kid? Hermantown does get a few players not from Hermantown, after all, they are a suburb of a medium-sized city, not an isolated, middle-of-nowhere town like I-Falls or Roseau.

[BleedRed]

Skrb lived out by Twig/pike lake which is way closer to Herm HS than Proctor HS but in the Proctor school district. Open enrolled at Herm at Mite/Squirt level as it was closer to home and better hockey I would guess. Wasn't a star till his senior year at Herm HS. Good for him he is a great kid. 95% of the kids on HS team grew up in Herm. A few moved in/open enrolled as Peewee/Bantam and none at HS.

[rainier]

What Hermantown has going there is impressive. Does anyone know if they ever discuss opting up to AA? They'd be a top 3 team in 7AA almost every year.

[HShockeywatcher]

Also, at some point you need to stray from the LPH rankings... otherwise you could just repost theirs all the time. Many of those same arguments can be made for other teams further down the rankings.

BTW, don't put too much stock in LPH's preseason rankings... a good example why is that they had the Eveleth-Gilbert girls team ranked 8th in the state in their preseason poll. That team is now 0-10 and has been outscored 68-5 and has been shutout 6 times and might be in the top 8 worst teams in the state. This is exactly why you can't rank based on last year.

I have strayed. The ONLY time I use it is for the pre-season rankings and I do from there.

I don't think last year is used; EP started AA at 8.

What you all are basically saying is that when players graduate the team doesn't replace them. Yes, they were good players and they graduated, but they had plenty of good young players on that team (including the goalie) who are now a year older.

They started the year at #1 and have done nothing to be dropped. If Breck had beat DM the way they beat SCC, things would be different, but beating a team 7-5 vs 4-3 isn't that different.

It is way too early to be getting upset over who is where. Would you prefer I came out and had three teams tied for first?

[The X]

Also, at some point you need to stray from the LPH rankings... otherwise you could just repost theirs all the time. Many of those same arguments can be made for other teams further down the rankings.

BTW, don't put too much stock in LPH's preseason rankings... a good example why is that they had the Eveleth-Gilbert girls team ranked 8th in the state in their preseason poll. That team is now 0-10 and has been outscored 68-5 and has been shutout 6 times and might be in the top 8 worst teams in the state. This is exactly why you can't rank based on last year.

I have strayed. The ONLY time I use it is for the pre-season rankings and I do from there.

I don't think last year is used; EP started AA at 8.

What you all are basically saying is that when players graduate the team doesn't replace them. Yes, they were good players and they graduated, but they had plenty of good young players on that team (including the goalie) who are now a year older.

They started the year at #1 and have done nothing to be dropped. If Breck had beat DM the way they beat SCC, things would be different, but beating a team 7-5 vs 4-3 isn't that different.

It is way too early to be getting upset over who is where. Would you prefer I came out and had three teams tied for first?

I think for early December, You hit the nail on the head for all of these teams. One can only assume that after the X-Mas Holiday tourneys Everyone will have a better look at the field. Of course as We all know, the only ranking that matters for any team is the one given after the teams last game of the year. These breakdowns are great material during the regular season to see how the teams matchup against one another. Keep up the good work! One more thing, please don't put 3 teams at #1 in the state of hockey, all 3 teams will want a trophy for it in December.

[PuckRanger]

I have strayed. The ONLY time I use it is for the pre-season rankings and I do from there.

But you keep referring back to it as being your reason for keeping STA at #1.

I don't think last year is used; EP started AA at 8.

Not sure what this is referring to nor what it means.

What you all are basically saying is that when players graduate the team doesn't replace them. Yes, they were good players and they graduated, but they had plenty of good young players on that team (including the goalie) who are now a year older.

The players on the other teams are a year older as well - and they are proven. While there is no doubt there is talent on STA, those players have not proven themselves yet and do not posses the same level of experience. Every team obviously replaces their graduates, its how many and who you replace them with that matters. STA has the most to replace... Hermantown has almost the exact same team that was a bounce away from a state title a year ago.

They started the year at #1 and have done nothing to be dropped. If Breck had beat DM the way they beat SCC, things would be different, but beating a team 7-5 vs 4-3 isn't that different.

My point was that they shouldn't have started there.

What you are missing here is that there actually was a big difference in those two games. Duluth Marshall was never really in that game with Breck and the score ended up closer than the actual play -- Breck was up 6-1 half way through the game. STA and Marshall was much more even --STA was actually behind 2-1 in the 3rd period.

It is way too early to be getting upset over who is where. Would you prefer I came out and had three teams tied for first?

I am certainly not upset about it... I just think your logic is flawed and you have an obvious bias towards STA.

[HShockeywatcher]

PuckRanger:
LPH's rankings are what the state publishes as their "polls." Quite reliable source imo. They put EP at #8 to start the season (last year's champ) so obviously it's not a "win last year and stay at #1 until you lose system."
As for the specifics of games; I don't have the time (nor the desire) to analyze stats of every game played in Class A. So to be fair, I rank solely based on the scores of games. Ultimately the reason you play the game is to put a W in the W/L column. Beating a team by 2 goals last week that a team ahead of you beat by 1 goal this week doesn't jump you ahead of them.

I use a poll from a state-recognized organization so as to not show bias. The bias I did use was putting Hermantown ahead of Breck because of what I know about the team.

Either I use something as a starting point and go from there, or I wait until January when teams have 8-10 games to start ranking.

I think for early December, You hit the nail on the head for all of these teams. One can only assume that after the X-Mas Holiday tourneys Everyone will have a better look at the field. Of course as We all know, the only ranking that matters for any team is the one given after the teams last game of the year. These breakdowns are great material during the regular season to see how the teams matchup against one another. Keep up the good work! One more thing, please don't put 3 teams at #1 in the state of hockey, all 3 teams will want a trophy for it in December.

Thanks Howie. It's crazy how upset people get over one spot this way or that way the second week of games

[BleedRed]

Hermantown over Totino 7-3. Hawks dominated and game was never close. Shots in 1st period 17-1. 40-21 for game. 6 different players scored.
Knowing something about a team and ranking them accordingly because of your knowledge is not bias. Knowing that a team is probably not as good but ranking them higher because you like them for some reason is a bias.
HShockeywatcher, I don't think PuckRanger is upset at all. He knows more about Hermantown than you do and is actually trying to help make your rankings better. Hopefully the Totino game will increase your knowledge and improve your rankings. If not, there will be more to come.

[/quote]

[HShockeywatcher]

Hermantown over Totino 7-3. Hawks dominated and game was never close. Shots in 1st period 17-1. 40-21 for game. 6 different players scored.
Knowing something about a team and ranking them accordingly because of your knowledge is not bias. Knowing that a team is probably not as good but ranking them higher because you like them for some reason is a bias.
HShockeywatcher, I don't think PuckRanger is upset at all. He knows more about Hermantown than you do and is actually trying to help make your rankings better. Hopefully the Totino game will increase your knowledge and improve your rankings. If not, there will be more to come.

Wow, someone must like circles

I don't know how else to say these things; Breck, St Thomas, and Hermantown seem to be in a class of their own. Anyone could make a compelling argument for any order and not be wrong. I started with one order two weeks ago and nothing has happened (imo) since to say that should be changed. Do you think one should be in a different spot? Awesome. Telling someone they're wrong (when they're not) and ignoring what they're saying isn't going to get to them to listen to you more.

And no, I don't think Hermantown allowing 3 goals to Totino AND Hopkins tells me they should be ahead of a team who allowed the same amount to Marshall and less to an even better Hill team. What I see is two teams (Hawks and Mustangs) with lots of firepower and bad defense and another team (Cadets) with great defense and unproven offense.
Should be a great season.

Go back and read my comments from the state tournament last year. I predicted Hermantown would be the team to beat this year because of who they are losing.

[PuckRanger]

You are the one talking in circles, hockeywatcher. In fact you just did so in your last response to BleedRed. You say that after last year you said Hermantown would be the team to beat.... yet, your still defending your choice of STA still being ranked #1. Which one is it?

LPH's rankings are what the state publishes as their "polls." Quite reliable source imo.

I have been reading LPH for over 20 years now (It is a great publication), there is no need to insult my intelligence by telling me what they do. Also, FYI, the "state" does not publish any polls and does not recognize any specific poll as its official poll. LPH is the most widely read because they send it out to all the media outlets who, in turn, reprint it. The Hockey Hub (which is endorsed by the coaches association), Followthepuck.com, USHSHO.com, Lee's Pagestat, among others regularly produce their own rankings. Many people prefer one of these over LPH's rankings. Its a matter of personal preference.

I don't have the time (nor the desire) to analyze stats of every game played in Class A. So to be fair, I rank solely based on the scores of games.

Doesn't leave you much credibility then does it? Anyone can look at other polls and browse through scores and rearrange them how they see fit. If your not analyzing the teams your ranking, and cannot provide any real insight as to why teams are ranked where they are, then your going to have issues. (Your Virginia ranking is a prime example.)

Final scores do not tell the whole story. Sometimes you run into a one-night wonder of a brick wall opposing goaltender. Quite often teams will play the JV guys and 3rd and 4th line more when they get way ahead or play a backup goalie and the score can creep closer. Thus the final score is not indicative of what happened in the game and does not indicate the true difference between the two teams.

Here is a simple two game example of why you can't rank that way:
Team A - 0 1 1 -- 2 (75 SOG)
Team B - 0 0 0 -- 0 (8 SOG)

Team B - 0 1 3 -- 4 (28 SOG)
Team C - 2 2 2 -- 6 (25 SOG)

Using your logic:
Team A > Team B
Team C > Team B
Team A = Team C

In the Real World:
Team A > Team B
Team A > Team C
Team B ~= Team C

Anyone in their right mind would tell you that Team A will likely rout Team C if they were to play. However, because of the equal goal differential and since Team C scored all those goals and Team A only scored a couple you would probably pick Team C or call them equal. I could go on and on, but I think this makes the point.

-----------------------------------------------------------

By the way, I remember reading last year (or maybe the year before) that you were questioning why people didn't complain about Karl's AA rankings like they did yours... well, this is why. Plus, rather than taking some other opinions under serious consideration, you always seem to choose to contest them and just defend your own.

Karl gets out and watches many of these teams play and he does his homework on each team. As a result, he gets a nice set of rankings and gets mostly positive feedback and has garnered a high level of respect.

With your rankings, its not so much the teams involved and their exact position as it is the process you use and the refusal to accept any information that contradicts your opinion that I have a problem with. The reality is that I could really care less if Hermantown is ranked #1 or #3... or if STA is... I don't live near or pull for either (or Breck for that matter). Bottom line is the more you talk, the more I believe you don't put in enough time or effort to do this correctly. I doubt I'm alone in that line of thinking.

OK, I have said my piece... maybe next week I'll do my own rankings.

[HShockeywatcher]

I still don't know how you infer half the things you write.

-This is my third year ranking Class A teams. Each year I started the first poll with LPH's rankings and adjusted from there. I'm being consistent. Changing that up to a different poll to what I (with limited knowledge) think would be showing bias.

-The only people you want to read rankings from are those who are able to analyze stats from all 70+ teams in the class? I analyze what I can and look at as many teams as I can but if you look at some stats and not others that is showing bias, which is exactly what you are saying I shouldn't do.

-I agree that team A would be better. I don't just look at margin (margin is very misleading) I generally look more at GF/GA (whatever that's technically called. Not sure how you think I'd say differently.

-I'm still confused about this "process" you speak of. I started with a list and have had no reason to change the top 3 yet. Period.

-Every week people say "I don't get why you have team X here, why is that karl?" karl responds and that's that. Here, I get those questions, I explain myself and then am told I'm wrong.

I'm doing this because I have a passion for MN high school hockey, love analyzing numbers, and love discussion. I spend A LOT of time every week dissecting scores and schedules and try to provide some analysis of teams. I don't mind explaining myself at all, discussion is always a positive thing.