AA Rankings for 12/11/11

[karl(east)]

Here are Week 2’s rankings. This is one of the harder times to rank teams, as they have enough games under their belts that we can begin to make certain arguments, but they’ve played few enough that one fluke upset can make a team look a lot better than it really is, or vice versa. There’s a lot of room for disagreement here, especially in spots 3-8.

It’s the week of the Edina Holiday Classic, which always gives us three great nights of hockey and includes four ranked teams this year. There are plenty of other big games out there, too--we’ll see who’s sitting in good position heading into the Holidays.

1. Duluth East (5-0)
-White Bear Lake showed the Hounds they still have some things to work on, but for the most part they took care of business this past week. All three lines are providing offense right now, and with a relatively easy schedule before a looming Schwan Cup meeting with Burnsville, they’ll have a chance to pile up a few more goals. Two games against mid-level AA teams this week, though any East fan knows never to take a road trip to Cloquet for granted.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Thurs at Cloquet

2. Minnetonka (4-0)
-The Skippers rolled to victory in their only game this past week and, with Benilde’s loss, should cement themselves in the top two in just about every set of rankings. Like East, their pre-Schwan Cup schedule is not overly demanding; the most interesting game on it is up this week, when they host Bloomington Jefferson. They also have a long road trip up to visit Adam Johnson and Hibbing on the docket.
This week: Thurs vs. Bloomington Jefferson, Sat at Hibbing

3. Maple Grove (4-0-1)
-Finally, the Crimson manage a convincing win over Blaine and put themselves in the driver’s seat in both the conference and the section. #3 seems a bit lofty given the Wayzata tie and the narrow win over Andover, but they have a couple of convincing results in hand now and deserve to be rewarded for that. With the big win in hand, they can now continue with NWSC play; their schedule this week includes a potentially interesting game against Centennial.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. Centennial

4. Grand Rapids (5-0)
-The win over Roseau was a bit tighter than I expected, so I’m not going to launch a team that has yet to play anyone from south of Forest Lake any higher quite yet. They’ve done a good job handling some talented top lines on some of these northern teams they’ve faced, but now they get an entirely different challenge as they head into the Edina Classic as the apparent favorite. Time to see how their defense holds up against three of the deepest programs in the state. Given their schedule, they may have more to gain from this week than any other team, with 2 of their 3 games against current top-10 teams and another with major implications for section seeding.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic--Thurs vs. #10 Edina, Fri vs. #8 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #15 Elk River

5. Burnsville (3-1)
-A strong win over Benilde-St. Margaret’s puts them back on the map; they have two huge wins, but that ugly loss to Minnetonka weighs the Blaze down some. They may not have the top end talent of some teams, and their real stars are a bit young. But they work hard and have no real weaknesses, and that’s a nice place to be early in the season. Two SSC games this week, one of which could be interesting.
This week: Thurs at Eastview, Sat vs. Bloomington Jefferson

6. Eagan (2-1)
-The win over Lakeville South was a nice recovery from the Eden Prairie loss, though the shot count suggests they have some work to do on defense. The good news: they don’t face any serious challenges for the rest of the month, meaning they should be able to rack up a bunch of victories while everyone else beats up on one another. Lakeville North got to them last year, but without Lindgren in net I don’t foresee a real shot at an upset.
This week: Thurs vs. Lakeville North, Sat vs. Rosemount

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-1)
-Like Eagan last week, an unexpected loss sends them tumbling to #7. In watching them, it’s clear that they have more talent than this. But the Burnsville game was not pretty, and they need to come together as a team to prove to me that this loss was merely a fluke. They bounced back against Duluth Marshall on Saturday and now continue their stretch of games against mid-level private schools this week. They should win both; the following week’s match-up with Maple Grove will give them the opportunity to re-assert themselves near the top of the rankings.
This week: Tues vs. Holy Angels, Thurs at Totino-Grace

8. Eden Prairie (3-0)
-Andover gave them a good run this week, but the Eagles remain undefeated heading into the Edina tournament. I did drop them in the rankings slightly despite the upset over Eagan; there’s an argument to be made for putting them noticeably higher. But I’m not convinced they’re as much of a legitimate title contender as the teams above them. A strong tournament this week could change my opinion.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic--Thurs vs. #15 Elk River, Fri. vs. #4 Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #10 Edina

9. Wayzata (3-1-1)
-Took care of business in an easier week on their schedule, and slide back one spot in the rankings only because Burnsville jumped over them. The week ahead could be an interesting, with games against a relative unknown in Prior Lake and a wounded but dangerous Hill team.
This week: Tues at Prior Lake, Sat at #12 Hill-Murray

10. Edina (4-1)
-Won their lone game this past week against Anoka and now need to go prove themselves in their own tournament. They stay behind Wayzata due to their results against Maple Grove. A two-win tournament would put them in pretty good shape heading into their next big tournament, the Schwan Cup Gold.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic--Thurs vs. #4 Grand Rapids, Fri vs. #`5 Elk River, Sat vs. #8 Eden Prairie

11. Moorhead (3-0)
-Came out on top in yet another tight, low-scoring affair with Bemidji, putting the Spuds in the sectional driver’s seat in the early going. They face another team looking to prove it belongs in the section race this week when they head up to Roseau. They certainly aren’t a flashy team, but they’ve held their opponents to one goal in each of their first three games.
This week: Tues at Roseau, Sat vs. Alexandria

12. Hill-Murray (2-2)
-Bounced back nicely from a rough opening week by pounding Henry Sibley and then edging out conference rival St. Thomas Academy. The STA win was huge for getting their season back on track, and with the Burnsville loss now looking better than it once did, they might be in position to go on a nice little run to put themselves back in the picture. If they can beat Wayzata on Saturday, we’ll know they probably are top ten material after all.
This week: Thurs vs. Mahtomedi, Sat vs. #9 Wayzata

13. Blaine (3-1)
-The Maple Grove loss may have been a turning point in the conference and the section. With that in mind, the bounce-back win in Elk River was very important for the Bengals, who keep themselves firmly in the rankings and now have some time to regroup and build toward the next meeting with the Crimson. They should win all three of their NWSC games before testing themselves in the Schwan Cup.
This week: Tues at Coon Rapids, Thurs vs. Osseo

14. Bemidji (3-1)
-Still can’t quite get over the hump against Moorhead, which means they have to regroup and load up for the re-match in February. The week ahead could be an interesting one, with road games against two 8A powers. Given their weak schedule, winning these games is a must if they want to stay ranked.
This week: Tues at Warroad, Thurs at Thief River Falls, Sat vs. Monticello

15. Elk River (4-1)
-The win over Centennial boosts the Elks into the rankings, though the Blaine loss shows they still have a little ways to go before moving any higher. This sets up a great tournament in Edina; the Elks won’t be favored in any of the games, so that means that any positive results will be a good sign. The Grand Rapids game especially important; a win could throw a wrench in the 7AA seeding process.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic--Thurs vs. #8 Eden Prairie, Fri vs. #10 Edina, Sat vs. #4 Grand Rapids

Watch List
(This is long this week, as I’m listing practically every team that’s on the radar screen.)
Lakeville South (0-2)
-The tight loss to Eagan is a better sign than the early loss to Edina, but they have yet to prove they are a legitimate top team. The schedule gets a bit easier now, so they should finally be able to start piling up some wins. 3 games this week; they’ll be favored in each, though Eastview and White Bear Lake will have a shot at the upset.

Centennial (1-2-1)
-The loss to Elk River drops them from the rankings, but the tie with Jefferson suggests they belong somewhere in this 15-20 range. They have a big week ahead of them, with games against a tough-looking Andover squad and a road trip up north to visit Duluth East.

Roseau (1-2-1)
-All of their games so far have been tight affairs, and there’s not much shame in their two narrow losses to top-ranked teams. Huge showdown with Moorhead this week; time to see if this young offense can crack the sturdy Spuds.

Brainerd (4-0)
-Rolling along against weaker teams; three games this upcoming week, all of which should be wins. Things start getting more interesting after that.

Andover (2-3)
-Very narrow losses to two the three top teams they’ve played, suggesting they might be a factor before all is said and done. Should win two more NWSC games this week.

Eastview (3-1)
-Lost badly to Edina, but they’re putting together some large margins of victory in their other games. In a weak Section 3AA, they may have a shot at a very high seed.

Roseville (5-0)
-Appear to be the class of the SEC right now, as they’re edging out narrow wins in an otherwise muddled pack. Two more conference games this week.

Apple Valley (1-2-1)
-Ugly loss to Minnetonka aside, they’re positioning themselves to still be a top seed in the section and playing decent hockey. Big conference game this week against Prior Lake.

Bloomington Jefferson (0-2-1)
-Not in the win column yet, but playing some good teams reasonably well. Looking at their schedule, they could stay winless for a very long time. Minnetonka and Burnsville are up this week, and it doesn’t get much easier after that.

The Rest of the SEC
-Forest Lake (3-2) had a slow start but appear to be finding their stride now. On the other side of the coin, I was ready to cement White Bear Lake (2-2) in the top 20 before the surprising loss to Cloquet. Woodbury (4-1-1) also seemed to be doing well early on before stumbling to Forest Lake. Stillwater (2-0-1) and Hastings (2-4) are somewhere on the watch list, along with the following teams:

Prior Lake
Cloquet
Holy Family

An early look at the section races:

1AA
(16) Lakeville South
Lakeville North
-Not much to get excited about here, with South still getting its season under way and North in the #2 spot by default.

2AA
5 Burnsville
10 Edina
(24) Bloomington Jefferson
-Has the makings of a very good race between the top two; it’s hard to tell right now if Jefferson can make it a 3-way race. Burnsville is the slight favorite right now, but Edina could change that with success in either of the two holiday tournaments they’re in. Prior Lake and Holy Angels will need to improve on their early results have a serious shot at the big guns.

3AA
5 Eagan
(21) Eastview
(23) Apple Valley
-After the clear #1, it’s a bit of a mess. Right now the seeding for the rest of the section follows pretty logically: Eastview and Apple Valley both beat East Ridge and will compete for the 2-seed in conference play, and East Ridge tied Woodbury, who beat Cretin. Hastings and Park can’t be completely written off either.

4AA
12 Hill-Murray
(22) Roseville
White Bear Lake
-Early struggles by some of the possible upstarts means we’re probably looking at a three-team race between Roseville and the two usual suspects. This is definitely the weakest this section has been in my memory.

5AA
3 Maple Grove
13 Blaine
(17) Centennial
-Maple Grove’s early win has them right where they want to be, while Blaine stays in the 2-spot over Centennial based on their results against common opponent Elk River. Centennial could make things interesting if they knock off Maple Grove this week; otherwise, the re-match between the top two is on January 26.

6AA
2 Minnetonka
6 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
8 Eden Prairie
9 Wayzata
-They’re in the same order I had them in the preseason rankings, but the early results have shaken some things up; EP and Wayzata look a little better than I originally had them, and Benilde has some things they need to figure out. Still the deepest section in the state with a great four-way race. I’m curious to see if Holy Family has the power to step up and grab the 5-seed.

7AA
1 Duluth East
4 Grand Rapids
15 Elk River
-The top two are marching along with undefeated records, and the GR-Elk River game this week will tell us where the Elks fit in to this picture. Perhaps the most interesting early story here is Andover, which has given some very good teams some close games and is decent position to land the 4-seed right now. Cloquet took a step in the right direction by beating White Bear; both they and Forest Lake will need to regroup from slow starts to have a shot at that position.

8AA
11 Moorhead
14 Bemidji
(18) Roseau
(19) Brainerd
-Moorhead’s win over Bemidji gives them the early claim to the top spot, and their game with Roseau this week will give us an even better idea of where the standings are right now. It’s hard to know at this point if Brainerd is a legitimate contender; the December 22 game against Bemidji should give us a better idea.

[14hockey]

The Edina classic will be very interesting for Grand Rapids, I don't think as far as I can remember back that they've won all three games even with their 06 07 teams, but if there was a year to do it it'd be this year.

[TheHockeyDJ]

The Edina classic will be very interesting for Grand Rapids, I don't think as far as I can remember back that they've won all three games even with their 06 07 teams, but if there was a year to do it it'd be this year.

They could have swept it in 07, but they were without AP player of the year Patrick White for nearly the whole first half of the season. This is the first time ever they go in as the tourney favorite.

[HShockeywatcher]

Great list karl. As always, Eagan should be higher, probably #2

I'm looking forward to being able to watch all of the Edina Holiday Classic and hopefully watching a team that doesn't start with E winning it this year

[Edgy]

....Eagan looks like their in the right spot after watching them yesterday...

[PuckU126]

Good to see the only suitable ranking page on the forum.

Again, great work, karl.

[starmvp]

Great work! Still very early in the season, should be an interesting next couple of weeks...

[RoseauHockeyFan]

Thanks Karl. I really enjoy reading this every week.

[codyy33]

For some reason I think that North St. Paul is going to be a factor in 4AA this year. Keep an eye on them, they're 5-0 right now and they have no problem scoring goals. Just a thought.

[WHAFightingSaints]

For some reason I think that North St. Paul is going to be a factor in 4AA this year. Keep an eye on them, they're 5-0 right now and they have no problem scoring goals. Just a thought.

They should score goals, their non-conference schedule couldn't be much easier. I'd like to see them challenge themselves with at least a little tougher schedule.

[greenway1969]

North could give anyone in their section trouble. Their problem is that they do not play very good defensive hockey. Opponents tend to get a lot of odd man rushes as the forwards are often caught deep in the offensive zone. Also, their first line will be overused. Good teams will beat them in the third period if it is a close game.

[karl(east)]

Thanks for the updates on NSP; I hadn't considered them. They aren't top 25 material at this point--the schedule so far has been very weak--but in this year's 4AA, teams won't have to be in the top 25 to make the semifinals.

[east hockey]

Thanks for the updates on NSP; I hadn't considered them. They aren't top 25 material at this point--the schedule so far has been very weak--but in this year's 4AA, teams won't have to be in the top 25 to make the semifinals.

FWIW, PageStat currently has them at #29 in Class AA.

Lee

[karl(east)]

Thanks for the updates on NSP; I hadn't considered them. They aren't top 25 material at this point--the schedule so far has been very weak--but in this year's 4AA, teams won't have to be in the top 25 to make the semifinals.

FWIW, PageStat currently has them at #29 in Class AA.

Lee

Thanks, I was about to ask when the first PS2 came out. 29 sounds about right for NSP.

PS2 likes Eden Prairie and White Bear Lake more than I do, but otherwise things are pretty similar so far. (I guess that makes some sense, since it's still taking last year into account at this point in the season, right?) Also a bit surprised to see Cloquet so high.

[HappyHockeyFan]

Karl - Looks like we are mostly in agreement about the Top Ten, only a few differences, however I do think you are giving Grand Rapids a little too much credit at this point based on their weaker schedule. I see alot more differences in our bottom Ten where I dont think you are giving enough credit to some teams like, Blaine, Elk River, Cloquet and Andover. But its early in the season when we have minimal games to judge on. I also see you have Hillmurray a bit higher than me, but that is the one team I struggled with the most, finally deciding I need to see more before moving them higher.

[northwoods oldtimer]

Karl - Looks like we are mostly in agreement about the Top Ten, only a few differences, however I do think you are giving Grand Rapids a little too much credit at this point based on their weaker schedule. I see alot more differences in our bottom Ten where I dont think you are giving enough credit to some teams like, Blaine, Elk River, Cloquet and Andover. But its early in the season when we have minimal games to judge on. I also see you have Hillmurray a bit higher than me, but that is the one team I struggled with the most, finally deciding I need to see more before moving them higher.

nobody asked you

[karl(east)]

Karl - Looks like we are mostly in agreement about the Top Ten, only a few differences, however I do think you are giving Grand Rapids a little too much credit at this point based on their weaker schedule. I see alot more differences in our bottom Ten where I dont think you are giving enough credit to some teams like, Blaine, Elk River, Cloquet and Andover. But its early in the season when we have minimal games to judge on. I also see you have Hillmurray a bit higher than me, but that is the one team I struggled with the most, finally deciding I need to see more before moving them higher.

-We'll get a better idea of where GR belongs after this week, but I do think they have the talent to be a top-5 team. Their defense is as good as anyone's, their young goalie has GR fans very excited, and they have some depth at forward. This team was 90 seconds away from beating East in the playoffs last year, and the most important players are back.
-We seem to disagree on the entire NWSC. That group's most impressive non-conference win right now is Blaine over Roseau. PS2 seems to back me up on this.
-I really don't see any argument for Hill out of the top 15. They beat STA, who would be top 20 if they played AA. They lost narrowly to BSM (yes, BSM has their issues, but I'd hope we can all agree they have the talent to win it all), and Burnsville (the Blaze scored 3 times in the last couple of minutes to make that look a lot more lopsided than it was). I liked what I saw in the BSM game from the Pioneers. They'll be there in the end.
-Cloquet has a nice win over a decent WBL team, but they also lost to Buffalo, who has been killed by every other good team they've played. As an East fan I know not to take Cloquet lightly, but they need to prove they have more to them than just Karson Kuhlman.

[mulefarm]

Eagan is too high. Not a significant win and a loss to EP. Will struggle all year as they read their press clippings!

[UND]

Watched Burnsville and Eagan play this weekend. Burnsville looked very good, special teams and coaching seem to be their strength. Wyman and Chapman are players. Eagan has some work to do, taking dumb penalties and selfish play needs to be addressed. Mason, Kuchera and Wolfe looked good.

[Vapor]

Eagan is too high. Not a significant win and a loss to EP. Will struggle all year as they read their press clippings!

It's early. Eagan is going to be tough to beat down the stretch.

[norcon]

Karl - Looks like we are mostly in agreement about the Top Ten, only a few differences, however I do think you are giving Grand Rapids a little too much credit at this point based on their weaker schedule. I see alot more differences in our bottom Ten where I dont think you are giving enough credit to some teams like, Blaine, Elk River, Cloquet and Andover. But its early in the season when we have minimal games to judge on. I also see you have Hillmurray a bit higher than me, but that is the one team I struggled with the most, finally deciding I need to see more before moving them higher.

-We'll get a better idea of where GR belongs after this week, but I do think they have the talent to be a top-5 team. Their defense is as good as anyone's, their young goalie has GR fans very excited, and they have some depth at forward. This team was 90 seconds away from beating East in the playoffs last year, and the most important players are back.
-We seem to disagree on the entire NWSC. That group's most impressive non-conference win right now is Blaine over Roseau. PS2 seems to back me up on this.they have more to them than just Karson Kuhlman.

Rapids was without junior defenseman Jake Bischoff for the games against Roseau and Warroad this past weekend. Powerplay drops off noticeably without him in the line-up besides the fact he's a very good defender. Status for Edina Classic unknown at this time.

[karl(east)]

Rapids was without junior defenseman Jake Bischoff for the games against Roseau and Warroad this past weekend. Powerplay drops off noticeably without him in the line-up besides the fact he's a very good defender. Status for Edina Classic unknown at this time.

That's good to know, thanks. Hopefully he can play; it would be a shame if he had to miss one of Rapids' biggest weeks of the year.

I haven't seen Jordan Gross play recently, but Bischoff is right up there amongst the best defensemen in the state.

[Edgy]

Went to Wayzata - Prior Lake game tonight. Prior Lake wins 3 to 2 in OT. Shots were 40 to 21 in favor of Wayzata although Wayzata had 5 power plays and Prior Lake had 0 - Wayzata scored 2 goals on PP - Prior Lake scored 3 "5 on 5"

[HappyHockeyFan]

"though the shot count suggests they have some work to do on defense"

This quote appears in your commentary regarding Eagan, not sure if you were referring to Eagan or LVS but it seems like it was Eagan. If it was I think you may have confused the shot counts, Eagan had 38 LVs had 13. Just pointing out a possible error on your part.

[Edgy]

Happy - was that in my response? Went back and looked and didn't see it. Just checkng.