AA Rankings for 12/25/11 and Holiday Tourney Preview

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karl(east)
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AA Rankings for 12/25/11 and Holiday Tourney Preview

Post by karl(east) »

Merry Christmas, everyone!

It was a short week, so there wasn’t a whole lot of excitement in the rankings, but there were enough big games to move a few things around. We can always rely on the holiday tournaments to shake things up, though, so this week’s rankings include some comments on all of the tournaments that involve top AA teams.

1. Duluth East (8-0)
-The Hounds cruised to victory over Centennial in their only game this past week. I got to see them for the first time, and there’s an awful lot to like. Their passing is as good as any high school team I’ve ever seen, and they’re deep, but they’re not quite a finished product--the defense had a couple of miscues, and they didn’t finish on all of their opportunities. Is Trevor Olson the missing piece? We may find out this week.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

2. Minnetonka (8-0)
-Scored goals in bunches in wins over Armstrong and Stillwater, setting up a potentially great showdown with East in the Schwan Cup. Like East their December schedule has not been overly difficult, so we’ll see how they do against a higher level of competition, especially since they’re on the harder side of the bracket.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

3. Maple Grove (8-0-1)
-Survived a roller coaster of a contest with Benilde and hold on to the third spot, at least for now. They looked sharp against Benilde, though I’m curious to see how they do against a team that is more interested in playing defense. With Elk River up first in their tournament, they may get that sort of test right away.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament

4. Eagan (5-1)
-A convincing 5-0 win over Apple Valley has 3AA looking like a cakewalk. The scores coming in lately clearly suggest they’re an elite team, but we’re still waiting for that signature win against another state title contender. They’re in a weak tournament, so that opportunity won’t come this week; it will have to wait for the January 3rd match-up with Minnetonka.
This week: South St. Paul Premier Tournament

5. Edina (7-1)
-Didn’t play this past week, but Eden Prairie’s win over Burnsville helps move them up in the rankings. They’ve looked solid since the November loss to Maple Grove; can they keep that up against some of the state’s best, away from the friendly confines of Braemar Arena?
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

6. Eden Prairie (5-1-1)
-A convincing win over Burnsville edges them further upward. I will wait until after their performance in St. Louis Park to say whether they belong in the truly elite tier of teams, but they’ve certainly shown that they can beat anyone on any given night.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament

7. Burnsville (6-2)
-The Blaze bounced back from the Eden Prairie loss with a comfortable win over a wildly inconsistent Prior Lake team. Their two losses are to teams above them, though they were a bit lopsided. The glow of the Benilde win is starting to wear off, though they can get that all back in a heartbeat if they knock off East.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (5-2)
-A loss to Maple Grove sets the Red Knights another step back. The talent is there, but the execution simply has not been. With that in mind, they now host a holiday tournament that could play a huge role in the direction their season takes--this can either spring them back up into the state title conversation, or raise a lot of questions about the team.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament

9. Moorhead (6-0)
-Blew out St. Cloud Tech in their only contest this past week, and now head into the Metro area for the first time this year. We still don’t know how well this team’s strong defense will stack up against the state’s best offensive attacks, so I’m very curious to see what they can do in St. Louis Park. How they perform will shape my opinion of the entire section.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament

10. Blaine (6-1)
-I dropped the Bengals one spot after an unusually close game against Anoka. They’ve had a couple of these close calls so far, though they’ve come out unscathed against anyone not named Maple Grove, and the Elk River win shows they can beat other good teams. We’ll see if they can hang with some of the state’s best very shortly.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

11. Elk River (6-2-1)
-Had some fun against Osseo on Thursday, and now head into St. Louis Park, where their first game has major conference implications. Even if they lose that one, the rest of the tournament will help show how high this team’s ceiling is.

12. Grand Rapids (6-3)
-Restored some order after that ugly Edina tournament with a win over a reasonably good Duluth Marshall team. I don’t foresee any challenges in their upcoming tournament.
This week: Perpich North-South Challenge

13. Lakeville South (4-2)
-The Cougars made some noise this past week by blowing out both White Bear Lake and Bloomington Jefferson. This helps atone for some of the ugliness earlier this year against Edina and Eagan, and has them in position to make a serious run at the Schwan Cup Silver title. For the first time since I’ve been doing this, another section has its top-ranked team behind the 1AA leader.
This week: Schwan Cup Silver

14. Wayzata (6-2-1)
-An interesting but not particularly illuminating week, as they roughed up Jefferson and then had some difficulty getting by Roseville. A fortunate draw in St. Louis Park gives them a shot at for a decent tournament.
This week: St. Louis Park Tournament

15. Hill-Murray (4-3)
-Pounded White Bear Lake to gain some measure of revenge for last year and cement themselves atop the section this time around. I’m very curious to see how good of a game they can give Minnetonka.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

On the Bubble
Bemidji (5-3)
-Got back on track with a strong win over Brainerd, keeping themselves in the hunt for a top-2 seed in the process. They’re in the Schwan Cup Silver this year, and on a side of the bracket where they could make some noise…time to see if they can run with some Metro teams.

Roseville (6-2)
-Forcing Wayzata to overtime is a good sign for a team that has otherwise been plodding along, winning a series of tight conference games. Nothing too fancy, but they seem to be competitive every night. Like Bemidji, they have a chance to make a little noise in the Silver division.

Centennial (3-4-1)
-The record isn’t pretty, but East is the only team that’s really buried them, and they did get a win over a pretty good Andover team this past week as well. Could be in for a rough week in St. Louis Park.

Andover (4-4)
-Hovering in the picture because they’ve played some good teams close, though they have no wins of any great value. They could improve their standing somewhat with a good week in the Duluth Heritage Classic.

Cloquet (7-3)
-Beat Forest Lake in a game with important section seeding implications and now head a few miles east to a holiday tournament in Duluth. Not a very strong #20, but there aren’t a ton of options here.

The next five, in no particular order: Apple Valley, Stillwater, Roseau, White Bear Lake, Brainerd

Holiday Tournament Preview
Teams are listed in the order of the bracket. (The top two teams meet in the first round, then play the next two in the second, etc.)

Schwan Cup Gold
Monday-Wednesday
Holy Angels
St. Thomas Academy
1 Duluth East
7 Burnsville
15 Hill-Murray
2 Minnetonka
10 Blaine
5 Edina
-As usual the Gold has a very deep field, and the winner stands a good chance to be #1 next week. Holy Angels is a bit out of its league, and it’s hard to say quite where St. Thomas fits in with the top AA schools. The other three first-round match-ups are excellent and should lead to great second and third games throughout the bracket. East and Tonka will be seriously tested for the first time, while Edina and Burnsville look to convince us they’re in the state title conversation, and Blaine and Hill try to show they can contend.

St. Louis Park Tournament
Tuesday-Thursday
3 Maple Grove
11 Elk River
Bloomington Jefferson
14 Wayzata
6 Eden Prairie
9 Moorhead
8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Centennial
-A lot of teams with things to prove in this one. Maple Grove heads in as the favorite, and could easily face the team that gave them the one blemish on their record--the Wayzata tie--in the second round. The EP-Moorhead game interests me the most in the first round, and we also have a Benilde team that’s trying to assert its place. A week after I plugged Jefferson for playing top teams well, they had an awful week and dropped out of the picture; can they get back on track and climb back in, or will one of the state’s most storied programs go winless in December?

Schwan Cup Silver
Monday-Wednesday
13 Lakeville South
Stillwater
Breck
Apple Valley
Bemidji
Forest Lake
Roseville
Blake
-All signs point to a semifinal showdown between Lakeville South and Breck for the title in this one. Still, there are some other interesting story lines: Bemidji gets a chance to show what it can do against Metro-area teams, some of the SEC teams look to distinguish themselves outside of their muddle of a conference, and Apple Valley has done reasonably well so far this year, given everything that they lost.

South St. Paul Premier Tournament
Monday-Wednesday
St. Paul Johnson
Anoka
4 Eagan
Hopkins
Woodbury
Hastings
South St. Paul
North St. Paul
-Anything other than complete domination by Eagan would be a stunning upset. The Woodbury-Hastings game has 3AA implications, and this tournament will also tell us if North St. Paul might be able to creep into the picture in a weak 4AA.

Perpich North-South Challenge
Tuesday-Thursday
12 Grand Rapids
Hibbing
Virginia
Lakeville North
Mahtomedi
St. Francis
-Semi-round robin in which the three southern teams play at each of the three northern teams. Rapids should roll; this is a bigger tournament for A teams like Hibbing and Mahtomedi, who are trying to prove themselves.

Heritage Classic (Duluth)
Tuesday-Thursday
New Prague
Buffalo
Andover
Rosemount
Fort Frances, ON
Cloquet
St. Louis Park
Duluth Denfeld
-A couple of bubble teams, Cloquet and Andover, are the likely favorites in Duluth. A meeting between the two of them would have section seeding implications. Denfeld could also make some noise, and Buffalo did upset Cloquet already this year. Not sure what to expect from Fort Frances.

Of the bubble teams not already mentioned elsewhere:
-Brainerd ventures to Grand Forks to take on some of North Dakota’s finest.
-Roseau hosts its annual tournament, which is an 8-team bracket this year instead of the usual round robin. The Rams’ opener against Holy Family on Thursday will likely be their toughest game; they should win the tourney.
-White Bear Lake is not in a holiday tournament this year and plays at East Ridge on Thursday.
elliott70
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Post by elliott70 »

Bemidj is short two starters for the Schwans Cup.

:cry:
tonkafan77
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Post by tonkafan77 »

These tournaments are going to be a deciding factor for all the teams in the top of the rankings. Can't wait to see what happens!
green4
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Post by green4 »

I would just like to switch edina and eagan since eagan did lose to EP and edina did beat EP but being from edina i'm probably one of the only ones who thinks this. Nonetheless great list, i really like reading these keep up the great work
gottalovehockey
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Post by gottalovehockey »

[quote="elliott70"]Bemidj is short two starters for the Schwans Cup.

:cry:[/quote]

three - forward, d-man (both injured), and goalie (sick)
Teak
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Post by Teak »

elliott70 wrote:Bemidj is short two starters for the Schwans Cup.

:cry:
Didn't seem to hurt them against Blake. :lol:
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

I don't know how much higher I'd jump them, but in looking at Breck's schedule to assess their close win over Lakeville South, I'd say they may deserve to be higher.
A 1 goal loss to your #4, similar margin loss (in their first game) to your #5 as other top 15 teams ahead of them, and "better" wins over common opponents than teams ahead of them (for what that's worth).
I admit, though, it is very difficult to rank someone high basing their quality only on good losses.

Great rankings as always
green4
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Post by green4 »

i take back my comment of edina being ahead of eagan after last nights rough performance
karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) »

green4 wrote:i take back my comment of edina being ahead of eagan after last nights rough performance
Probably true, though I don't think they're going to drop much, if at all, in the near future. East, Tonka, and Eagan are comfortably ahead of them for now, and #2 is there for the taking for Maple Grove. After those four, it gets a bit muddier. I'll probably break out the "record against other top teams" to help with next week's rankings, which will give me a chance to re-evaluate certain teams (like Lakeville South, which HSHW mentioned).
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

karl(east) wrote:
green4 wrote:i take back my comment of edina being ahead of eagan after last nights rough performance
Probably true, though I don't think they're going to drop much, if at all, in the near future. East, Tonka, and Eagan are comfortably ahead of them for now, and #2 is there for the taking for Maple Grove. After those four, it gets a bit muddier. I'll probably break out the "record against other top teams" to help with next week's rankings, which will give me a chance to re-evaluate certain teams (like Lakeville South, which HSHW mentioned).
Yeah, at the moment (imo of course) AA is really so hard to comment on for a handful of teams. There are many teams out there, like Lakeville South, that could be a legitimate top 5-10 team but could also not be deserving of a top 20.

If you aren't a fan of Edina or Hill Murray, with who they've played, one could make an argument that Tonka isn't great, for example. Depending on how MG does the next two days against Wayzata and Benilde/Moorhead, we could have AA rankings with two undefeated teams at #1 and #2 and then a couple handfuls of teams where it would be hard to tell soeone else their list of about any order of 3-10 is wrong.

If MG wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, (2) Maple Grove.
If MG wins tonight and Moorhead wins tomorrow, I say (1) Moorhead, (2) East.
If BSM wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, then "have fun karl..."

Both of East's games next week are at Maple Grove and home against Moorhead, so regardless of how the top 3 end up, more will be seen in the next week. Also, Moorhead's opening schedule has been pretty easy before their tournament, but they have at least 6 top AA teams, plus a handful of "good" A teams left on their schedule.
green4
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Post by green4 »

HShockeywatcher wrote:
karl(east) wrote:
green4 wrote:i take back my comment of edina being ahead of eagan after last nights rough performance
Probably true, though I don't think they're going to drop much, if at all, in the near future. East, Tonka, and Eagan are comfortably ahead of them for now, and #2 is there for the taking for Maple Grove. After those four, it gets a bit muddier. I'll probably break out the "record against other top teams" to help with next week's rankings, which will give me a chance to re-evaluate certain teams (like Lakeville South, which HSHW mentioned).
Yeah, at the moment (imo of course) AA is really so hard to comment on for a handful of teams. There are many teams out there, like Lakeville South, that could be a legitimate top 5-10 team but could also not be deserving of a top 20.

If you aren't a fan of Edina or Hill Murray, with who they've played, one could make an argument that Tonka isn't great, for example. Depending on how MG does the next two days against Wayzata and Benilde/Moorhead, we could have AA rankings with two undefeated teams at #1 and #2 and then a couple handfuls of teams where it would be hard to tell soeone else their list of about any order of 3-10 is wrong.

If MG wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, (2) Maple Grove.
If MG wins tonight and Moorhead wins tomorrow, I say (1) Moorhead, (2) East.
If BSM wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, then "have fun karl..."

Both of East's games next week are at Maple Grove and home against Moorhead, so regardless of how the top 3 end up, more will be seen in the next week. Also, Moorhead's opening schedule has been pretty easy before their tournament, but they have at least 6 top AA teams, plus a handful of "good" A teams left on their schedule.
even if moorhead wins the St.louis park tourney i don't see how anyone besides DE is #1 when they have been #1 all year and especially after that beat down they had on Tonka to back it all up
tonkafan77
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Post by tonkafan77 »

green4 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:
karl(east) wrote: Probably true, though I don't think they're going to drop much, if at all, in the near future. East, Tonka, and Eagan are comfortably ahead of them for now, and #2 is there for the taking for Maple Grove. After those four, it gets a bit muddier. I'll probably break out the "record against other top teams" to help with next week's rankings, which will give me a chance to re-evaluate certain teams (like Lakeville South, which HSHW mentioned).
Yeah, at the moment (imo of course) AA is really so hard to comment on for a handful of teams. There are many teams out there, like Lakeville South, that could be a legitimate top 5-10 team but could also not be deserving of a top 20.

If you aren't a fan of Edina or Hill Murray, with who they've played, one could make an argument that Tonka isn't great, for example. Depending on how MG does the next two days against Wayzata and Benilde/Moorhead, we could have AA rankings with two undefeated teams at #1 and #2 and then a couple handfuls of teams where it would be hard to tell soeone else their list of about any order of 3-10 is wrong.

If MG wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, (2) Maple Grove.
If MG wins tonight and Moorhead wins tomorrow, I say (1) Moorhead, (2) East.
If BSM wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, then "have fun karl..."

Both of East's games next week are at Maple Grove and home against Moorhead, so regardless of how the top 3 end up, more will be seen in the next week. Also, Moorhead's opening schedule has been pretty easy before their tournament, but they have at least 6 top AA teams, plus a handful of "good" A teams left on their schedule.
even if moorhead wins the St.louis park tourney i don't see how anyone besides DE is #1 when they have been #1 all year and especially after that beat down they had on Tonka to back it all up
I agree. There is no doubt that Duluth East is by and far the top team in the state right now, regardless of the outcome of the SLP Tourney. If Maple Grove wins, I believe it will be a toss up for the #2 spot. Tonka plays Eagan next Tuesday so they will have to prove that they belong at the top in that game. Regarding last night's game against East, although I might be a tad biased, it wasn't as lopsided as people are thinking. Tonka had a slow start but actually outplayed East in the third period and ended up out-shooting them. I realize that the shots don't matter THAT much but it is just an observation. This will be fun for Karl to try and sort all this out this week!
MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles »

Centennial might actually be a team that moves up without getting a win this week. :shock:
Maple Grove Crimson#1
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Post by Maple Grove Crimson#1 »

MrBoDangles wrote:Centennial might actually be a team that moves up without getting a win this week. :shock:
Playing tough is one thing but at some point you need to start winning some of the games. there a clear 2,3 seed in section 5AA no where else for them to go assuming they can Handle Osseo this year which they should.
MrBoDangles
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Post by MrBoDangles »

Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote:
MrBoDangles wrote:Centennial might actually be a team that moves up without getting a win this week. :shock:
Playing tough is one thing but at some point you need to start winning some of the games. there a clear 2,3 seed in section 5AA no where else for them to go assuming they can Handle Osseo this year which they should.
You're the only one thinking section seedings and tournament bids right now. I'm just thinking about how Centennial surprised a bunch of people this week.

Your name says it all..... :wink:
Maple Grove Crimson#1
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Post by Maple Grove Crimson#1 »

MrBoDangles wrote:
Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote:
MrBoDangles wrote:Centennial might actually be a team that moves up without getting a win this week. :shock:
Playing tough is one thing but at some point you need to start winning some of the games. there a clear 2,3 seed in section 5AA no where else for them to go assuming they can Handle Osseo this year which they should.
You're the only one thinking section seedings and tournament bids right now. I'm just thinking about how Centennial surprised a bunch of people this week.

Your name says it all..... :wink:
I think anyone can predict the top 4 seedings in section 5AA, not Rocket Science this year. I was impressed with the Cougars but would like to see them pull off a couple of these close games. they are a very solid team.
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

tonkafan77 wrote:
green4 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote: Yeah, at the moment (imo of course) AA is really so hard to comment on for a handful of teams. There are many teams out there, like Lakeville South, that could be a legitimate top 5-10 team but could also not be deserving of a top 20.

If you aren't a fan of Edina or Hill Murray, with who they've played, one could make an argument that Tonka isn't great, for example. Depending on how MG does the next two days against Wayzata and Benilde/Moorhead, we could have AA rankings with two undefeated teams at #1 and #2 and then a couple handfuls of teams where it would be hard to tell soeone else their list of about any order of 3-10 is wrong.

If MG wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, (2) Maple Grove.
If MG wins tonight and Moorhead wins tomorrow, I say (1) Moorhead, (2) East.
If BSM wins tonight and tomorrow, I say (1) East, then "have fun karl..."

Both of East's games next week are at Maple Grove and home against Moorhead, so regardless of how the top 3 end up, more will be seen in the next week. Also, Moorhead's opening schedule has been pretty easy before their tournament, but they have at least 6 top AA teams, plus a handful of "good" A teams left on their schedule.
even if moorhead wins the St.louis park tourney i don't see how anyone besides DE is #1 when they have been #1 all year and especially after that beat down they had on Tonka to back it all up
I agree. There is no doubt that Duluth East is by and far the top team in the state right now, regardless of the outcome of the SLP Tourney. If Maple Grove wins, I believe it will be a toss up for the #2 spot. Tonka plays Eagan next Tuesday so they will have to prove that they belong at the top in that game. Regarding last night's game against East, although I might be a tad biased, it wasn't as lopsided as people are thinking. Tonka had a slow start but actually outplayed East in the third period and ended up out-shooting them. I realize that the shots don't matter THAT much but it is just an observation. This will be fun for Karl to try and sort all this out this week!
Why?

Moorhead has been low on the todem poll all season being undefeated because of their SOS. They beat (technically tied) EP; if they can also beat BSM and follow it up with a win against MG, which is a big win I know, that is at least similar, if not better than what East has done.

East played 7 games prior to this tournament while proving very little. Then in this tournament they (1) outshot a team they played very close, (2/3) then got outshot by two other top teams in the state while playing a close game with St Thomas and being dominated (by other accounts) by Tonka.
Moorhead has laid under the radar because of their section but not lost, beat (tied) a team who beat Eagan [who is regarded at top 4], and, if they win today and tomorrow, will have also beaten a top 2 team and a top 10 team.

It is a long shot to predict any of those teams to win two games in a row, but if the French Fries are able to pull it off, their resume (imo) will be better than that of the Pups. I'm sure karl will disagree with me though. \:D/
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote:
MrBoDangles wrote:
Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote: Playing tough is one thing but at some point you need to start winning some of the games. there a clear 2,3 seed in section 5AA no where else for them to go assuming they can Handle Osseo this year which they should.
You're the only one thinking section seedings and tournament bids right now. I'm just thinking about how Centennial surprised a bunch of people this week.

Your name says it all..... :wink:
I think anyone can predict the top 4 seedings in section 5AA, not Rocket Science this year. I was impressed with the Cougars but would like to see them pull off a couple of these close games. they are a very solid team.
5AA is up in the air right now. ANY of Maple Grove, Blaine and Centennial could end up anywhere in the seeds of 1-3 in section 5. They are all very good teams and could play with most teams in the state I suspect. Osseo should be 4th.
Last edited by HShockeywatcher on Thu Dec 29, 2011 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
east hockey
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Post by east hockey »

HShockeywatcher wrote:
Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote:
MrBoDangles wrote: You're the only one thinking section seedings and tournament bids right now. I'm just thinking about how Centennial surprised a bunch of people this week.

Your name says it all..... :wink:
I think anyone can predict the top 4 seedings in section 5AA, not Rocket Science this year. I was impressed with the Cougars but would like to see them pull off a couple of these close games. they are a very solid team.
5AA is up in the air right now. ANY of Elk River, Blaine and Centennial could end up anywhere in the seeds of 1-3 in section 5. They are all very good teams and could play with most teams in the state I suspect. Osseo should be 4th.
Only problem is, Elk River is in 7AA.

Lee
PageStat Guy on Bluesky
Maple Grove Crimson#1
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Post by Maple Grove Crimson#1 »

HShockeywatcher wrote:
Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote:
MrBoDangles wrote: You're the only one thinking section seedings and tournament bids right now. I'm just thinking about how Centennial surprised a bunch of people this week.

Your name says it all..... :wink:
I think anyone can predict the top 4 seedings in section 5AA, not Rocket Science this year. I was impressed with the Cougars but would like to see them pull off a couple of these close games. they are a very solid team.
5AA is up in the air right now. ANY of Elk River, Blaine and Centennial could end up anywhere in the seeds of 1-3 in section 5. They are all very good teams and could play with most teams in the state I suspect. Osseo should be 4th.
Elk River Plays in Section 7AA, I wish they would stay in 5AA though.
HShockeywatcher
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Post by HShockeywatcher »

Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote:
Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote: I think anyone can predict the top 4 seedings in section 5AA, not Rocket Science this year. I was impressed with the Cougars but would like to see them pull off a couple of these close games. they are a very solid team.
5AA is up in the air right now. ANY of Elk River, Blaine and Centennial could end up anywhere in the seeds of 1-3 in section 5. They are all very good teams and could play with most teams in the state I suspect. Osseo should be 4th.
Elk River Plays in Section 7AA, I wish they would stay in 5AA though.
I meant Maple Grove...sorry. I know, none of you mistype.
Maple Grove Crimson#1
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Post by Maple Grove Crimson#1 »

HShockeywatcher wrote:
Maple Grove Crimson#1 wrote:
HShockeywatcher wrote: 5AA is up in the air right now. ANY of Elk River, Blaine and Centennial could end up anywhere in the seeds of 1-3 in section 5. They are all very good teams and could play with most teams in the state I suspect. Osseo should be 4th.
Elk River Plays in Section 7AA, I wish they would stay in 5AA though.
I meant Maple Grove...sorry. I know, none of you mistype.
haha I mistype every 3rd word lol :lol:
karl(east)
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Post by karl(east) »

HShockeywatcher wrote:
tonkafan77 wrote:
green4 wrote: even if moorhead wins the St.louis park tourney i don't see how anyone besides DE is #1 when they have been #1 all year and especially after that beat down they had on Tonka to back it all up
I agree. There is no doubt that Duluth East is by and far the top team in the state right now, regardless of the outcome of the SLP Tourney. If Maple Grove wins, I believe it will be a toss up for the #2 spot. Tonka plays Eagan next Tuesday so they will have to prove that they belong at the top in that game. Regarding last night's game against East, although I might be a tad biased, it wasn't as lopsided as people are thinking. Tonka had a slow start but actually outplayed East in the third period and ended up out-shooting them. I realize that the shots don't matter THAT much but it is just an observation. This will be fun for Karl to try and sort all this out this week!
Why?

Moorhead has been low on the todem poll all season being undefeated because of their SOS. They beat (technically tied) EP; if they can also beat BSM and follow it up with a win against MG, which is a big win I know, that is at least similar, if not better than what East has done.

East played 7 games prior to this tournament while proving very little. Then in this tournament they (1) outshot a team they played very close, (2/3) then got outshot by two other top teams in the state while playing a close game with St Thomas and being dominated (by other accounts) by Tonka.
Moorhead has laid under the radar because of their section but not lost, beat (tied) a team who beat Eagan [who is regarded at top 4], and, if they win today and tomorrow, will have also beaten a top 2 team and a top 10 team.

It is a long shot to predict any of those teams to win two games in a row, but if the French Fries are able to pull it off, their resume (imo) will be better than that of the Pups. I'm sure karl will disagree with me though. \:D/
Moorhead's loss spares me the need to make this argument, but yes, I disagree completely.

I also think it's wrong to say East "proved very little" before the Schwan Cup. No, their schedule was not incredibly hard, but they beat all the teams they played by at least 3 goals. That is no minor feat, especially when the schedule included a lot of teams in the 15-20 range (Andover, Centennial, Cloquet)--and none of those games were close. If we don't want to hold semi-weak schedules against teams, we need to go by margins of victory, and though East had a couple of games that appear a bit closer than they "should" have been, I would argue this is outweighed by their large margins of victory over some of those other teams. Moorhead, meanwhile, was scraping out 1-goal wins over the likes of Alexandria. If you're going to say East did little before the Schwan Cup, how can you argue that a team that did even less before their holiday tourney (the Spuds) is #1? Perhaps if Moorhead had rolled to large victories in each game, I'd buy it. But otherwise, no way.
east hockey
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Post by east hockey »

Moorhead is a +26 in goal differential against an average schedule (using PageStat) of 17.42. East is +49 against an average of 19.84.

It's not even close.

And in response to those who claim East has played a weak or even average schedule, they currently have played the 13th most difficult schedule in Minnesota (again, using PageStat). Almost exactly the same as Minnetonka and Elk River.

Now, you can cherry-pick whatever "evidence" you want to claim otherwise, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Lee
PageStat Guy on Bluesky
green4
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Post by green4 »

not to mention if your ranked first in the preseason poll and your undefeated why would you move them down? unless there is a clear reason, which there is not
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