AA Rankings for 1/1/12

[karl(east)]

With the holiday tournaments complete, we now have a pretty good idea of where most of the teams now stand. The top few teams have pulled ahead of the rest of the pack for the time being, and games against each other this week—1 vs. 2, 3 vs. 4—will help sort them out. After that it gets a bit more complicated, with a group of teams that have proven they can beat one another on any given day. To help clear them up, I’ve added a helpful feature this week: the second record after each team’s name is their record against other teams in the top 20, plus single-A powers like St. Thomas Academy and Breck.

1. Duluth East (11-0/7-0)
-The Hounds didn’t set the world on fire in their first two Schwan Cup wins, but they made up for any perceived shortcomings in the romp over #2 Minnetonka in the title game. There is still a long ways to go, but to this point they’ve proven they are one of only two teams (the other being Minnetonka) that can blow out other top teams when they’re on. They still need to get healthy and tighten up the defense; they are in the meat of their schedule right now, with a second consecutive game against a #2 and a Moorhead team that looked pretty good in St. Louis Park.
This week: Wed at #2 Maple Grove, Sat vs. #6 Moorhead

2. Maple Grove (11-0-1/8-0-1)
-Powered their way through the St. Louis Park tournament and showed signs of improvement in the process, beating a Wayzata team they tied back in November and jumping out to an early lead over Benilde. Now, they have their opportunity to take all that momentum and ride it to the top spot in the state if they can beat the Hounds, whom they handled in Duluth last year. They have a couple of easier NWSC games after the battle between AA’s two remaining unbeaten teams.
This week: Wed vs. #1 Duluth East, Thurs vs. Coon Rapids, Sat vs. Osseo

3. Minnetonka (10-1/4-1)
-The loss to East was ugly, but it doesn’t negate the impressive pair of wins the Skippers had over Hill-Murray and Edina, and I suspect they will give the Hounds a tighter game in the Hockey Day re-match. Like East, they have a lot to get through before that game, including a tough test against Eagan this week and a road trip up to Moorhead.
This week: Tues vs. #4 Eagan, Fri at #6 Moorhead

4. Eagan (8-1/1-1)
-Marched through the first two rounds of the South St. Paul Premier Tournament before having a tight game with Woodbury, a potential foe in sections. They have yet to be truly tested in the way most other top teams have; we’ll see if that comes into play when they travel up to Minnetonka this week. This is their chance to make a real statement that they belong on the state scene. They should follow that up with a couple of easy wins.
This week: Tues at #3 Minnetonka, Thurs at Eastview, Sat at Bloomington Kennedy

5. Edina (9-2/6-2)
-Their two games against teams above them have not gone especially well (combined score: 9-0), but the Hornets have beaten everyone else they’ve played on a difficult schedule, so they hang on to the #5 spot. Minnetonka debacle aside, they had a nice defensive performance in the Schwan Cup, shutting out Blaine and holding St. Thomas Academy to 2 goals. The week ahead features a couple of private schools that shouldn’t give them any trouble, though they have struggled with Cretin in recent years, plus a decent but beatable White Bear team.
This week: Tues vs. Cretin-Derham Hall, Thurs vs. Holy Angels, Sat vs. White Bear Lake

6. Moorhead (8-1/3-1)
-A strong showing in St. Louis Park boosts the Spuds, who beat a good Eden Prairie squad and gave Benilde a pretty good game. They don’t have the firepower of the other top teams, but they’ve shown they can hang in there, and in this muddle after the top four teams, that really helps them. I wouldn’t be shocked if some say this ranking is artificially high, which leads us to the next question: can they compete with Minnetonka and East? We’ll find out during their brutal upcoming weekend.
This week: Tues vs. Thief River Falls, Fri vs. #3 Minnetonka, Sat at #1 Duluth East

7. Eden Prairie (7-2-1/6-2-1)
-The Moorhead loss was a mild setback, but two more wins in St. Louis Park, including one against a team they tied a few weeks earlier, keep the Eagles up towards the top of the rankings. They missed playing Benilde in the tournament, which could make the seeding battle in 6AA very interesting; every game may count. They have their third meeting with Elk River in less than a month on Thursday.
This week: Thurs vs. #13 Elk River, Sat at Holy Angels

8. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (7-3/3-3)
-One of the more hyped teams heading into the season is still spinning its wheels as they head into January. The Moorhead win is a step in the right direction given the rest of the Spuds’ week, but their inability to make any headway against Maple Grove again exposed this team’s rather obvious flaws. Section seeding is on the line when they visit Wayzata on Thursday; a loss could potentially relegate them to #4 in 6AA.
This week: Thurs at #15 Wayzata, Sat vs. St. Louis Park

9. Burnsville (7-4/2-4)
-Did a pretty good job of hanging in there against East, but the loss to Hill-Murray was a setback after their comfortable win over the Pioneers a few weeks earlier. Part of a tangled group of teams in the 8-10 range that are beating up on each other; they all can compete with anyone, but they’re a step or two behind the top teams right now. The week ahead features a pair of second-tier SSC teams.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville North, Sat vs. Apple Valley

10. Hill-Murray (6-4/3-4)
-The loss to Minnetonka was not pretty, but that game aside, the Pioneers have taken some important steps forward in the past two weeks. A win over White Bear has them in prime position in the section, and victories against Blaine and Burnsville in the Schwan Cup prove they can’t be taken lightly by other contenders. Their immediate future involves Classic Suburban play, with only one game this week. Time to beef up that record.
This week: Sat at South St. Paul

11. Lakeville South (7-3/1-3)
-The Cougars had a pretty good Schwan Cup Silver performance; they lost to a good Breck team and continue to score goals in bunches, even against some reasonably good teams. The computerized rankings sure seem to like them. But they’re going to need to shore up their defense some to move any higher, and will need to beat someone better than Roseville to really grab my attention. Two games against the SSC’s second tier this week; they should win both, including the grudge match with rival North.
This week: Thurs vs. Prior Lake, Sat vs. Lakeville North

12. Blaine (7-3/2-3)
-It wasn’t a banner Schwan Cup for the Bengals, who seem to be having problems scoring goals and putting away teams they should beat. They’ve shown they can stay close to the better teams in the state, but not much else. They have an interesting week ahead of them, with two potentially competitive games with implications for the rankings.
This week: Tues vs. North Metro, Thurs at Andover, Sat vs. #13 Wayzata

13. Elk River (7-4-1/2-4-1)
-While a key injury is a partial explanation for a drop in offensive output, the loss to Eden Prairie is a setback for a team that had tied the Eagles a few weeks earlier. As has been the case with Elks teams in recent years, they’re good at beating the teams below them but never seem to manage the upset of a highly-ranked team. (The possible exception being Grand Rapids this year, but it’s hard to know how much stock to put into that win.) Get Eden Prairie again on Thursday.
This week: Thurs at #7 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. St. Francis

14. Grand Rapids (9-3/0-3)
-I think the Thunderhawks are probably better than this; they’re the victims of a weak schedule and an untimely injury. But the overtime win over Mahtomedi doesn’t inspire a whole lot of confidence as we head into January, and they will need to make a statement soon to stay on the radar. A game against Bemidji gives them a chance to at least do something along those lines.
This week: Tues at Bemidji

15. Wayzata (7-4-1/2-3-1)
-Didn’t have a great St. Louis Park tournament, but they did manage to give Maple Grove and Moorhead pretty good games in their losses. Still something of a work in progress; the win over Hill and tight games with top teams show they have potential, but they have proven susceptible to the occasional hiccup, such as the Prior Lake loss. Both their games this week will be very important for their direction in these rankings.
This week: Thurs vs. #8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat at #13 Blaine

Bubble
Centennial (4-6-1/1-6)
-A classic case of a lying record; the Cougars have given Benilde, Minnetonka, and Eden Prairie one-goal games, and lost to Maple Grove by two. Despite finishing 7th they looked pretty good in St. Louis Park, and the win over Andover keeps them ahead of their fast-rising conference rival.

Andover (7-4/1-4)
-Won the Duluth Heritage Classic, probably locking up the 4-seed in 7AA in the process and moving them closer to the rankings. A key test against Blaine this week will show just how serious of a threat they are in the NWSC.

Roseville (7-3-1/0-2)
-Not competitive with Lakeville South, and the tie with Forest Lake doesn’t help their standing much either, but there aren’t a whole lot of great candidates in this part of the rankings, and they are a pretty steady team. A big game against White Bear Lake on Thursday gives them an opportunity to make a statement in the conference.

Cloquet (9-4/0-3)
-The OT loss to Andover hurts their section seeding prospects, but it does show they deserve to be considered for the top twenty. The schedule over the next few weeks involves only teams from their region, though a couple of those will pose big challenges.

Roseau (5-3-1/0-3)
-Took care of business in their own holiday tournament, bumping the Rams back up over .500 and re-igniting some optimism around this young team. Two likely wins this week.

Watch List
White Bear Lake (5-4-1/0-4). Overall results are pretty good, but have not been going in the right direction lately.
Apple Valley (5-4-1/0-4). Very similar credentials to White Bear.
Forest Lake (5-5-1/1-4-1). Pretty good holiday tournament showing has them back on the radar screen.
Bemidji (6-5/0-1). Need to get healthy and get things back in order.
Woodbury (6-4-2/0-1). A close game with Eagan is encouraging; 3 upcoming games against White Bear, Roseville, and Stillwater will show us where they stand in the SEC.

A tour of the sections:

1AA
11 Lakeville South
-Still no sign that anyone will be able to skate with the Cougars, who could give this section its first dangerous team at State in years.

2AA
5 Edina
9 Burnsville
-The section is thinner than usual and looks like a definite two-horse race at the moment. Edina’s stronger Schwan Cup has the Hornets a bit ahead at the moment, though we should be able to crown a #1 when the two play on January 10th. Prior Lake is probably the 3-seed by default right now, and after that it gets ugly—how high can Jefferson go with the very poor record they will likely have in mid-February?

3AA
4 Eagan
(22) Apple Valley
(25) Woodbury
-Woodbury’s close game with Eagan makes this section mildly more interesting than before, but the Wildcats are still the heavy favorite. These three have separated themselves some from the mess that comes afterwards.

4AA
10 Hill-Murray
(18) Roseville
(21) White Bear Lake
-Hill’s big win over White Bear has them comfortably in the driver’s seat for now, though if the Bears improve we could still wind up with another playoff classic. Roseville lurks as a spoiler, and beyond that no one really stands out.

5AA
2 Maple Grove
12 Blaine
(16) Centennial
-Centennial’s decent showing in St. Louis Park coupled with Blaine’s struggles in the Schwan Cup makes the section a little tighter than it was, though both are still chasing Maple Grove, who is firmly entrenched as #1. The first Centennial-Blaine battle takes place next Saturday; the winner will get a leg up in the race to be #2.

6AA
3 Minnetonka
7 Eden Prairie
8 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
(15) Wayzata
-Minnetonka is the early favorite for the top seed, but it’s pretty unsettled after that, as the three 6AA teams managed to avoid each other in the St. Louis Park tourney. Lake Conference play will help sort this out, but Benilde’s games with Wayzata and Minnetonka over the next two weeks will likely decide the Red Knights’ seeding fate. Regardless, the winner of this section will have to beat two very good teams.

7AA
1 Duluth East
13 Elk River
14 Grand Rapids
-It looks like a 3-team race right now, though we’ll see how close ER and GR are to East when the Hounds travel to Grand Rapids next Thursday. Seeds 4-6 are as good as any other section, though their results against East suggest they are not truly in the hunt for the section title. It seems likely that Andover will be seeded 4th, Cloquet 5th, and Forest Lake 6th.

8AA
6 Moorhead
(20) Roseau
(24) Bemidji
Brainerd
-Moorhead’s competitive week in St. Louis Park looks good for the entire section, but right now no one is really stepping up to challenge them. Bemidji will still probably have the best shot in the end, but they’ve been battling injuries and some disappointing results thus far. It’s hard to say if Roseau is turning a corner or just racking up wins against weaker teams, while Brainerd has not done well in its few games against other good teams. Some key section games over the next two weeks, as Moorhead hosts Brainerd on the 10th and Roseau visits Bemidji on the 14th.

[Slap Shot]

I would have waited to see what MG does against DE before moving them up to 2nd. Tonka's only loss is to the #1 team (a game in which they played terribly), they handily beat two other ranked teams during the week (as you noted), and since they started at #2 they should stay there. I guess we'll know by week's end either way.

[northwoods oldtimer]

I would have waited to see what MG does against DE before moving them up to 2nd. Tonka's only loss is to the #1 team (a game in which they played terribly), they handily beat two other ranked teams during the week (as you noted), and since they started at #2 they should stay there. I guess we'll know by week's end either way.

No need to worry Minnetonka will be back as East will lose 5 of the next 6 games.

[Slap Shot]

I would have waited to see what MG does against DE before moving them up to 2nd. Tonka's only loss is to the #1 team (a game in which they played terribly), they handily beat two other ranked teams during the week (as you noted), and since they started at #2 they should stay there. I guess we'll know by week's end either way.

No need to worry Minnetonka will be back as East will lose 5 of the next 6 games.

I don't care about the ranking as a matter or importance - sections will take care of that.

And I assume that was sarcastic as DE may not lose again.

[minnscout]

Rankings make no sense. BSM beats Moorehead who had beat Eden Prarie the night before and some how both are ranked higher? Clearly MG DE and Tonka are the top teams right now.

[east hockey]

I would have waited to see what MG does against DE before moving them up to 2nd. Tonka's only loss is to the #1 team (a game in which they played terribly), they handily beat two other ranked teams during the week (as you noted), and since they started at #2 they should stay there. I guess we'll know by week's end either way.

No need to worry Minnetonka will be back as East will lose 5 of the next 6 games.

Lee

[HShockeywatcher]

Rankings make no sense. BSM beats Moorehead who had beat Eden Prarie the night before and some how both are ranked higher? Clearly MG DE and Tonka are the top teams right now.

To clarify: Moorhead didn't beat Eden Prairie, they tied 4-4. They play another OT to determine a winner (like how in Schwan's they have a shootout) and Moorhead scored in the 2nd OT.

I don't like Moorhead above them either.

I understand having Eden Prairie lower because of their Edina loss (not sure why Moorhead's above them), but if you're going to continue to say Eagan deserves to be high simply based on their pre-season ranking then Lakeville South should be in the top 7. They've lost to Eagan by 1, Breck by 2 and Edina by 3. They have no quality wins, but neither does Eagan aside from beating them.

Just my two cents; Moorhead lower, Lakeville South higher.
Good rankings as always.

[tonkafan77]

I agree for the most part with this list. We'll get a good look at where each of the teams in the top 4 stand after this week. And of course the big re-match on Hockey Day! I'm glad the teams are now full swing into their difficult schedules so we can finally compare talent between top teams.

[GTTN]

Looking forward to the game on Wed. Is MG rink Olympic ice? If so how will that effect the game?

[Hscout000]

As always great work Karl.

Big week ahead will decide a lot about rankings and seeding. It's January so we will see which teams can perform and which teams can't.

[HShockeywatcher]

For the first time in a long time every section has a competitive team; there is a team from every section in the top 11 and I suspect they will be higher in the next few weeks.

While I can't knock anyone for not ranking a team with no losses (doubt I would) of Jefferson's 8 losses, the lowest team they've lost to is #16 on Karl's list and the two ties are to #16 and #22. Very interesting schedule for them.

[HSHockeyFan08]

[quote="GTTN"]Looking forward to the game on Wed. Is MG
rink Olympic ice? If so how will that effect the game?[/quote]

Yes it is an Olympic sheet. Maple Grove doesn't lose at home very often, but haven't played a team as talented as East this year.

[mulefarm]

I believe it was a loss for EP against Moorhead. I think they put 5 min for the overtime on the clock and realized after it should have been 8 min. Then put 3 min to complete the 8 min and that is when Moorhead scored. The MSHSL only allows one 8 min overtime in regular season games, shootouts in holiday tournaments are only used to see who advances. May be wrong but that is my understanding.

[karl(east)]

To be clear, the Moorhead-EP game did count as a Moorhead win. That's why they're ahead of EP.

Yes, Moorhead beat EP and Benilde beat Moorhead, but we have to take more than those games into account. EP has had a very difficult schedule so far (all but one game against top-20 teams), plus a very valuable win over Eagan. Their only two losses are to teams above them. I wouldn't really object if someone kept EP at #6 despite the Moorhead loss.

We're at the point in the season where "A beat B so A must be ahead of B" logic breaks down--teams have now played enough games that we have to judge by the body of work and not individual results.

I'm liking Moorhead at #6 less and less as I think about it, but but it would be strange to put them behind EP (whom they beat) and ahead of BSM (whom they lost to). I don't think BSM should be any higher than where they are, given the Burnsville loss and obvious shortcomings they need to correct.

[HShockeywatcher]

I believe it was a loss for EP against Moorhead. I think they put 5 min for the overtime on the clock and realized after it should have been 8 min. Then put 3 min to complete the 8 min and that is when Moorhead scored. The MSHSL only allows one 8 min overtime in regular season games, shootouts in holiday tournaments are only used to see who advances. May be wrong but that is my understanding.

You are correct about the MSHSL. Kinda silly imo; with how often they happen, when you're at a stadium until 10pm, often on a school night, do you really wanna go home with a tie?

As for the tie/win; the hub had it as no goal in the 1st OT and then the goal in the 2nd OT and it has since changed. If it is officially a win, I have no issue with Moorhead where they are. If you compare schedules of the teams 5-10, you could probably justify each of them in any of the spots, as they have wins against teams above them and losses to teams below them. I'd probably switch Burnsville and Hill Murray, still no complaints.

[6ix]

To be clear, the Moorhead-EP game did count as a Moorhead win. That's why they're ahead of EP.

Yes, Moorhead beat EP and Benilde beat Moorhead, but we have to take more than those games into account. EP has had a very difficult schedule so far (all but one game against top-20 teams), plus a very valuable win over Eagan. Their only two losses are to teams above them. I wouldn't really object if someone kept EP at #6 despite the Moorhead loss.

We're at the point in the season where "A beat B so A must be ahead of B" logic breaks down--teams have now played enough games that we have to judge by the body of work and not individual results.

I'm liking Moorhead at #6 less and less as I think about it, but but it would be strange to put them behind EP (whom they beat) and ahead of BSM (whom they lost to). I don't think BSM should be any higher than where they are, given the Burnsville loss and obvious shortcomings they need to correct.

I still disagree with ranking Moorhead at 6, they've lost to benilde and benilde was missing 3 of their top 4 d men to injuries and quite frankly jecha didn't play his best. But time will tell if you are correct with the rankings. Thanks for taking the time to do this

[tonkafan77]

In Karl's defense, he did give a forewarning that after the first couple teams, it's anybodies game. In reality, the difference between #7 and #8 is not that big especially when the season is still this young.

[sportsdad]

To be clear, the Moorhead-EP game did count as a Moorhead win. That's why they're ahead of EP.

Yes, Moorhead beat EP and Benilde beat Moorhead, but we have to take more than those games into account. EP has had a very difficult schedule so far (all but one game against top-20 teams), plus a very valuable win over Eagan. Their only two losses are to teams above them. I wouldn't really object if someone kept EP at #6 despite the Moorhead loss.

We're at the point in the season where "A beat B so A must be ahead of B" logic breaks down--teams have now played enough games that we have to judge by the body of work and not individual results.

I'm liking Moorhead at #6 less and less as I think about it, but but it would be strange to put them behind EP (whom they beat) and ahead of BSM (whom they lost to). I don't think BSM should be any higher than where they are, given the Burnsville loss and obvious shortcomings they need to correct.

I still disagree with ranking Moorhead at 6, they've lost to benilde and benilde was missing 3 of their top 4 d men to injuries and quite frankly jecha didn't play his best. But time will tell if you are correct with the rankings. Thanks for taking the time to do this

I don't know if Moorhead should be at six or not but considering Bitzer didn't have a good game, the Moorhead defense had melt down after meltdown (seemed three of their top four d men didn't bother showing up either), and BSM barely squeaked by, I wouldn't use that logic to make a case against MHD

[isee]

WBL, had a rough 2 games against HM and LVS, but just finished up 2 good games against ER and WBury, although they have to put the puck in the net and still not rely on the first line for everything, it appears that some line changes have been made and these changes appear to have given them 3 solid lines, a couple of minor tweaks on 2 and 3 and they may just get 2 scoring lines, now they just have to work on the second line Power Play and the lazy back checking of the first line, who I believe has by far the most minus's on the team, even though they produce points, it is unacceptable to be lazy in the defensive zone.

[Edgy]

Noticed Prior Lake beat Lakeville South 6 to 5 in OT - Kloos line with all 5 points for South.

[HShockeywatcher]

Noticed Prior Lake beat Lakeville South 6 to 5 in OT - Kloos line with all 5 points for South.

I don't know who all in on the first line, but Kloos himself has scored or had an assist on 29 of the 50 goals (58%) scored prior to tonight. If it surprised you (or anyone) that his line would be involved in production, that's silly.

Prior lake is good. Just not better than 2 (maybe 3) of the teams in their section.

[Edgy]

Noticed Prior Lake beat Lakeville South 6 to 5 in OT - Kloos line with all 5 points for South.

I don't know who all in on the first line, but Kloos himself has scored or had an assist on 29 of the 50 goals (58%) scored prior to tonight. If it surprised you (or anyone) that his line would be involved in production, that's silly.

Prior lake is good. Just not better than 2 (maybe 3) of the teams in their section.

No one said anything about being surprised

[karl(east)]

Noticed Prior Lake beat Lakeville South 6 to 5 in OT - Kloos line with all 5 points for South.

I don't know who all in on the first line, but Kloos himself has scored or had an assist on 29 of the 50 goals (58%) scored prior to tonight. If it surprised you (or anyone) that his line would be involved in production, that's silly.

Prior lake is good. Just not better than 2 (maybe 3) of the teams in their section.

Prior Lake has really been all over the map. They are the only team not in the top 15 in AA to beat a team in the top 15, and they've done it twice now. On the other hand, they have a lopsided loss to Woodbury and a loss to Hopkins on their record.

In a weak 2AA, they have a pretty clear path to the semifinals. They've already been pasted by Burnsville this year, but still, no one should take them too lightly.

The win over South should knock the Cougars down some in the computerized rankings and hopefully bring them more in line with where I have them. They're a good team, but have some things to prove before we consider them a great one.

[HShockeywatcher]

Noticed Prior Lake beat Lakeville South 6 to 5 in OT - Kloos line with all 5 points for South.

I don't know who all in on the first line, but Kloos himself has scored or had an assist on 29 of the 50 goals (58%) scored prior to tonight. If it surprised you (or anyone) that his line would be involved in production, that's silly.

Prior lake is good. Just not better than 2 (maybe 3) of the teams in their section.

Prior Lake has really been all over the map. They are the only team not in the top 15 in AA to beat a team in the top 15, and they've done it twice now. On the other hand, they have a lopsided loss to Woodbury and a loss to Hopkins on their record.

In a weak 2AA, they have a pretty clear path to the semifinals. They've already been pasted by Burnsville this year, but still, no one should take them too lightly.

The win over South should knock the Cougars down some in the computerized rankings and hopefully bring them more in line with where I have them. They're a good team, but have some things to prove before we consider them a great one.

I'm happy with anything that makes Breck's win look less impressive

[gorilla1]

I think Karl's rankings also Highlights why determining stae births have to e looked at. State Tourney's goal should be to get te 8 best teams there. While that is not always possible, there could be a better way of doing it. Only disagreement is Moorhead is too high.