AA Rankings for 1/6/13

[karl(east)]

It is a new year, has already been plenty of excitement; most teams have reached the halfway points in their regular season schedules, the Vikings reverted to form, and the NHL has decided it still wants to exist. Here are your AA rankings:

1. Hill-Murray (11-1-1)
-It may be a messy set of rankings, and though the Pioneers are not a dominant #1, they are a very clear #1. They continue to do just enough, as was the case in this week’s overtime win over a depleted Edina team, and there is a lot to be said for steadiness. If there’s a shortcoming, it might be on defense; all of their defensemen are solid, but none of them seem to offer the offensive threat of someone like Blake Heinrich, their leader on the blue line last season. Their game with Wayzata this Saturday will be their last game against a top ten AA opponent this season.
This week: Tues vs. Mahtomedi, Sat at #4 Wayzata

2. Edina (11-3)
-#2 is not an easy spot to fill this week. I went with the Hornets for a few reasons: they’ve played a tough schedule, and their losses were all against very good teams. They did manage an important section win over Burnsville, and considering the players they were missing, there isn’t much shame in the Hill loss, either. Still, there are cracks in the walls. This team really needs to rediscover its offensive swagger; nine goals in the past five games is far too few for a team with this much talent. After Tuesday’s game, they have another fairly long stretch without a game.
This week: Tues at White Bear Lake

3. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (9-3)
-The Red Knights bounced back from the ugly loss to Wayzata last week with a solid win over the Trojans, restoring some order for the preseason favorites in 6AA. The defensive effort in particular was much stronger; now, the question is whether they can keep that going. We’ll find out in a hurry, as they play two huge games this week, one of which has major implications in the section.
This week: Thurs at St. Thomas Academy, Sat vs. #7 Minnetonka

4. Wayzata (11-2)
-Couldn’t back up the first win over Benilde, and since neither game was all that close, I decided to give more weight to the more recent win and slide the Red Knights back ahead of Wayzata. Harsh, perhaps, but aside from that one Benilde game, they aren’t winning in nearly as convincing a manner as some of the other top teams. They could easily change my opinion with a big week, as they face two more tests against top ten teams.
This week: Thurs vs. #10 Burnsville, Sat vs. #1 Hill-Murray

5. Duluth East (8-3)
-The Hounds rolled to two more authoritative wins over strong AA teams, presenting us with this week’s ranking dilemma: how high do you go with a team that has been on fire lately? I think this spot accurately reflects the momentum they’ve built up without going overboard. They now need to continue to improve instead of peaking in early January, as they seemed to do last season. After playing only two of their first eleven at home, the Hounds head back to Duluth for a busy week that includes a crosstown rival, a huge section game, and enigmatic but dangerous Eden Prairie.
This week: Tues at Duluth Denfeld, Thurs vs. Grand Rapids, Sat vs. Eden Prairie

6. Eagan (9-2-1)
-Slide back two spots through no real fault of their own; it’s tough to measure the Wildcats against the other teams in this top tier right now, as the others all have had several games against one another in recent weeks, while Eagan simply takes care of business against somewhat weaker teams. If they maintain their focus on that task, they’ll be back in the top five in no time. Their relatively easy stretch continues this week, though Lakeville North has shown they’re not a total pushover.
This week: Tues at Lakeville North, Sat vs. Eastview

7. Minnetonka (8-3-1)
-Idle this past week, but the Skippers move up a spot after Burnsville’s tough week. After a tune-up against Chanhassen, they’ll give their stout defense the toughest test it has faced all season when they take on Benilde. A win would go a long way towards correcting for that rough patch in late December.
This week: Thurs vs. Chanhassen, Sat at #3 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

8. Centennial (10-3)
-A narrow win over Elk River gives the Cougars yet another quality result. They get consistently outshot by the quality opponents they play, but great goaltending and timely scoring have been enough to make this group worthy of the top ten. Continued Northwest Suburban play gives them a chance to solidify this ranking, though similarly defensive-minded Andover could pose a challenge.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at Andover

9. Bloomington Jefferson (9-3)
-The Jaguars cleaned up against some of the weaker South Suburban teams, and attrition among the teams above them allows Jefferson to slide on up into the top ten. Up next: a major reality check against section foe Burnsville, plus a visit to unpredictable Lakeville South. I have my doubts about this team, so we’ll see what they can do now that the stakes are getting higher.
This week: Tues at #10 Burnsville, Sat at Lakeville South

10. Burnsville (6-6-1)
-Frustration abounds for the Blaze, as they lost narrowly to Edina and Prior Lake and are winless in their last four games. The Edina loss leaves them 0-10 with seven one-goal losses against the Hornets in the Kivihalme Era, which is painful, but it was a tight game that should give them some hope should they meet again in Sections. The Prior Lake loss, on the other hand, really muddies up spots 2-4 in the section, and the Blaze stay in the top ten only by virtue of their win over Blaine. It doesn’t get much easier this week either, as they play yet another key section game against Jefferson and visit Wayzata.
This week: Tues vs. #9 Bloomington Jefferson, Thurs at #4 Wayzata

11. Blaine (7-4-1)
-An ugly result against Duluth East raises further doubts about the Bengals, though they bounced back some with a solid win over Andover. They’re a deep squad, but they struggle to finish at times, and goaltending appears to be something of a concern. Their quest for a conference title gets under way in earnest this week, with a visit to contender Elk River on the docket.
This week: Thurs at #13 Elk River, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

12. Prior Lake (7-5)
-It was an up-and-down week for the Lakers; the loss to Eden Prairie was a mild setback, but they made up for it with a narrow win against section rival Burnsville that will help their positioning in 2AA. Both games were the tight defensive battles we’ve come to expect out of this squad, and they’ve shown they can hang with anyone. The schedule from here on out is noticeably easier, though there are still plenty of quality South Suburban opponents to challenge them; they’ll be comfortable favorites in all three games this week.
This week: Tues at Bloomington Kennedy, Thurs at Hopkins, Sat vs. Lakeville North

13. Elk River (8-6)
-A loss to Centennial does little to affect the Elks’ standing in the rankings. Right now, it looks like a theme Elks fans have become accustomed to in recent years—they put up fairly consistent, decent results against just about everyone, but have yet to take that next step out of the 10-15 range. A home game against Blaine this week could help them in that regard.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Blaine, Sat at Osseo

14. Holy Family (7-3)
-Picked up two close wins against good-but-not-great Class A teams. Games like these don’t exactly scream “top 15,” but they have been fairly consistent within their small sample size, so we’ll rotate the Fire through the revolving door we’ve had in this part of the rankings. Only one game this week; their very back-heavy schedule finally gets going after that, as they have three games in four of the last five weeks of the regular season.
This week: Tues vs. Mound-Westonka

15. Moorhead (7-6-1)
-The Spuds have lost by fairly large margins to most of the top teams they’ve played, so there are decent reasons for not ranking them this high. However, they have been fairly steady, and they’ve taken care of business against weaker teams, which is something the four teams immediately below them, despite their high ceilings, have not managed. So we’ll keep the Spuds at #15 for now, and see what they can do against Class A power Breck this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Brainerd, Sat at Breck

The Next Ten

Eden Prairie (6-6-1)
-While it wasn’t a resounding statement, Eden Prairie’s overtime win over Prior Lake was a step in the right direction for a team that is trying to get it together. A few more games like that could have them right back in the thick of things, and a road trip north to face Duluth East and Cloquet this week offers something of an opportunity.

Grand Rapids (8-3-2)
-The tie against Cloquet isn’t a bad result, but it doesn’t do much to help the Thunderhawks’ standing, either. They’re struggling to generate much offensive zone time against top teams, and in some of their more important games, it seems as if their scoring revolves around Avery Peterson’s heroics. They’ll need more than that if they want to have success this week, when they pay visits to two of their northern nemeses, Hermantown and Duluth East.

Stillwater (7-4-1)
-The Ponies leap into the top twenty after thumping Mounds View this past week. They’ve been playing inspired hockey recently, and though they can’t entirely wipe away some of their sloppy early season results, continued success could have them threatening for a spot in the top 15. As it is they’ve put the rest of 4AA and the Suburban East on notice, and travel to Cretin for their only game this week.

Cloquet (9-4-1)
-A tie against Grand Rapids is a positive sign for the Jacks; their results ever since the Hopkins loss have been quite strong. A timely test against Eden Prairie this Friday will help tell us how real this progress is, and what we might expect in some of their big second-half games. They also face a decent Hibbing team.

Roseau (8-3-1)
-The Rams are quietly hitting their stride, having won five in a row and scoring goals with regularity, with Saturday’s 8-3 victory over Holy Angels being the most impressive of the bunch. They now settle into a long stretch of play against 8AA and 8A contenders, and lead off that string with a visit to archrival Warroad on Thursday.

Maple Grove (7-7)
-Cruised to wins over two Northwest Suburban bottom-feeders, and have now won four in a row. A game against Andover on Thursday will help sort out the second tier of the conference.

Lakeville South (6-6)
-A loss to Eastview keeps up the inconsistent theme for the Cougars; they seem capable of playing with the top teams on any given night, but they now have a couple of rough losses as well. They remain the class of 1AA, but they’ll need another big upset or two down the stretch to be considered a serious threat. They visit Jefferson this week.

Mounds View (8-2-2)
-Came crashing back to earth some with a 9-1 loss to Stillwater. The record is nice, but they have yet to prove much against any teams even mentioned in the rankings, and the loss is a serious setback for section seeding purposes, too. Suburban East play continues this week against Park and Hastings.

Andover (5-7)
-All of the losses are against good teams, but they are also mounting, and there haven’t been any real signs of improvement here. The offensive output has been anemic. The Huskies desperately need a positive result against Centennial and/or Maple Grove this week.

Eastview (8-5)
-The Lighting have taken their lumps, but they’ve also hung around in two losses to top ten teams, and also now have wins over both Lakevilles. They are probably the second-best team in 3AA at the moment.

Thanks for reading, and enjoy some of the quality games we have coming up this week.

[GTTN]

Great Job! Best Sunday morning read each week

Can you elaborate on hornets injuries / sickness / players missing?

[karl(east)]

Great Job! Best Sunday morning read each week

Can you elaborate on hornets injuries / sickness / players missing?

Thanks! As for Edina (information coming from Loren Nelson of the Hub):

-Dylan Malmquist is out for two weeks with a knee injury.
-Goaltender Willie Benjamin was scratched due to a thumb injury.
-Andy Jordahl and Miguel Fidler have the flu bug that seems to be making its way around the state. I know East and Moorhead were also missing a few players this week for the same reason.

If anyone can make up for those absences, it's the Hornets, but that many missing players will mess with any team. I was half-watching the game while also watching football, but it looked like they had a fairly slow start as they adjusted to the new line combinations.

[Ogie]

2. Edina (11-3)
-#2 is not an easy spot to fill this week. I went with the Hornets for a few reasons: they’ve played a tough schedule, and their losses were all against very good teams. They did manage an important section win over Burnsville, and considering the players they were missing, there isn’t much shame in the Hill loss, either. Still, there are cracks in the walls. This team really needs to rediscover its offensive swagger; nine goals in the past five games is far too few for a team with this much talent. After Tuesday’s game, they have another fairly long stretch without a game.

I saw something during the national anthem that may be instructive.

While the HM team was standing on their blue line in a statuesque manner, the Edina guys were shuffling their feet and switching about...It wasn't an arrogant "can we just get on with it" sort of posturing, but one of a group of guys who were talking to themselves...Right now, the Hornets have an anti-swagger.

[GTTN]

Great Job! Best Sunday morning read each week

Can you elaborate on hornets injuries / sickness / players missing?

Thanks! As for Edina (information coming from Loren Nelson of the Hub):

-Dylan Malmquist is out for two weeks with a knee injury.
-Goaltender Willie Benjamin was scratched due to a thumb injury.
-Andy Jordahl and Miguel Fidler have the flu bug that seems to be making its way around the state. I know East and Moorhead were also missing a few players this week for the same reason.

If anyone can make up for those absences, it's the Hornets, but that many missing players will mess with any team. I was half-watching the game while also watching football, but it looked like they had a fairly slow start as they adjusted to the new line combinations.

I give edina credit if they can hang with the number 1 team and be missing all those kids who I remember all being very important.

Thanks for the info!

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

As usual, good and informative insights on this week's poll. Also, the beginning of the week is better than Thursday for a poll. I'd like to see the LPH poll come out on Sunday or Monday, since there are no Sunday games, and few on Monday.

It's an interesting place the Pioneers are in, a consensus but not dominant #1. They did not look great last night against Edina; I think the eight day layoff showed. Although they looked better in the first period than the 2nd. I would have preferred a Thursday tune up against a conference opponent to the long layoff.

[Ogie]

Would also like to add my kudos to Karl for these weekly posts...They give me a lot of food for thought as to which upcoming games I may want to take in.

12. Prior Lake (7-5)
-It was an up-and-down week for the Lakers; the loss to Eden Prairie was a mild setback, but they made up for it with a narrow win against section rival Burnsville that will help their positioning in 2AA. Both games were the tight defensive battles we’ve come to expect out of this squad, and they’ve shown they can hang with anyone. The schedule from here on out is noticeably easier, though there are still plenty of quality South Suburban opponents to challenge them; they’ll be comfortable favorites in all three games this week.

Of the teams I've seen from #11 on down, I like these guys a lot.

Besides the game at EP last week, I saw their semi and final games in the Schwan Cup...Team hustle that doesn't seem to quit.

Wouldn't shock me at all to see them playing for the 2AA title.

[green4]

Great Job! Best Sunday morning read each week

Can you elaborate on hornets injuries / sickness / players missing?

Thanks! As for Edina (information coming from Loren Nelson of the Hub):

-Dylan Malmquist is out for two weeks with a knee injury.
-Goaltender Willie Benjamin was scratched due to a thumb injury.
-Andy Jordahl and Miguel Fidler have the flu bug that seems to be making its way around the state. I know East and Moorhead were also missing a few players this week for the same reason.

If anyone can make up for those absences, it's the Hornets, but that many missing players will mess with any team. I was half-watching the game while also watching football, but it looked like they had a fairly slow start as they adjusted to the new line combinations.

i was quite impressed with Rohkohl the back-up goalie, he has not got a lot of playing time so coming in against good teams like Burnsville and Hill murray and keeping them down to only 2 goals i think is quite impressive. Plus not a big guy only 5'8 i would say, i think he has done a great job filling in.

[zyzxx]

Great Job! Best Sunday morning read each week

Can you elaborate on hornets injuries / sickness / players missing?

Thanks! As for Edina (information coming from Loren Nelson of the Hub):

-Dylan Malmquist is out for two weeks with a knee injury.
-Goaltender Willie Benjamin was scratched due to a thumb injury.
-Andy Jordahl and Miguel Fidler have the flu bug that seems to be making its way around the state. I know East and Moorhead were also missing a few players this week for the same reason.

If anyone can make up for those absences, it's the Hornets, but that many missing players will mess with any team. I was half-watching the game while also watching football, but it looked like they had a fairly slow start as they adjusted to the new line combinations.

i was quite impressed with Rohkohl the back-up goalie, he has not got a lot of playing time so coming in against good teams like Burnsville and Hill murray and keeping them down to only 2 goals i think is quite impressive. Plus not a big guy only 5'8 i would say, i think he has done a great job filling in.

Edina seems to do a good job developing their goalies (generally). Rumor has it that they actually have legitimate goalie tryouts most years rather than picking big names/and kids that played on BA, PA, SQA only. They also appear to know how to develop and keep kids at all levels.

[D3Referee]

5. Duluth East (8-3)

just clinging on to that dream eh karl? good for you. I think reality will eventually set in though, even for you

As usual, good read. No criticism whatsoever, but if you are accepting comments, mine would be this;

I think the Trojans and BSM should be flipped, by virtue of which team had the more dominant win of the split, and also by virtue of Wayzata having a better record than BSM and also by virtue of Wayzata winning when it mattered (Championship Game).

[D3Referee]

-Dylan Malmquist is out for two weeks with a knee injury.
-Goaltender Willie Benjamin was scratched due to a thumb injury.
-Andy Jordahl and Miguel Fidler have the flu bug that seems to be making its way around the state. I know East and Moorhead were also missing a few players this week for the same reason.

If anyone can make up for those absences, it's the Hornets, but that many missing players will mess with any team.

just curious - why are you so willing to cut the Hornets slack for injuries/illnesses but not other teams?

• When Grand Rapids started slow missing Bischoffs nobody cared.
  
  Eagan got no slack missing Willox in the OT game with Hill, or flu-bug / missing players in the loss at Tonka.
  
  BSM gets no sympathy when Moore and Baer were out of the lineup

For those teams the loss bears the full weight on the rankings you produce.

So why do you cut Edina slack when they are missing a couple guys, and give them a kinda *excused loss* - especially, as you say, when it affects them the least (due to their ability to fill holes).

not being critical. I am just curious to your reasoning. You did the same thing with Duluth East, coming forward with a lot excuses why they under-performed, but with other teams you don't care.

Why the different treatment? Just curious

[karl(east)]

So why do you cut Edina slack when they are missing a couple guys, and give them a kinda *excused loss* - especially, as you say, when it affects them the least (due to their ability to fill holes).

not being critical. I am just curious to your reasoning. You did the same thing with Duluth East, coming forward with a lot excuses why they under-performed, but with other teams you don't care.

Why the different treatment? Just curious

Just because I don't mention it in the write-up doesn't mean I'm not taking it into account. Your critique that Wayzata should be ahead of Benilde is a perfect example--Benilde is ahead of Wayzata in part because I'm cutting them some slack over those missing players.

Likewise, people were calling for Grand Rapids to dropped from the top 15 after the Forest Lake loss, but I kept them up there in part because I knew they were shorthanded. Only after they lost to St. Francis--with a healthy Jake Bischoff--did they drop out.

Also, there's a big difference between missing one player and missing four. East was missing one 2nd line player in the Denfeld loss last night, but I wouldn't ever use that as an excuse for the loss. When a team has to redo all of their lines (as Edina did), on the other hand...

As for East...where do you see me making excuses for them? Obviously they don't deserve to be #5 after last night, but when a team beats Edina 4-1, Minnetonka 4-1, and Blaine 5-1 within the span of two weeks, isn't that a sign that they're pretty good? A bit inconsistent, certainly, but at the time these rankings were made, I doubt even the harshest critic would have put them lower than #7 or so. And I'll again point out that I've kept East a tiny bit lower than every other human ranking has, all season long.

[C-dad]

So why do you cut Edina slack when they are missing a couple guys, and give them a kinda *excused loss* - especially, as you say, when it affects them the least (due to their ability to fill holes).

not being critical. I am just curious to your reasoning. You did the same thing with Duluth East, coming forward with a lot excuses why they under-performed, but with other teams you don't care.

Why the different treatment? Just curious

Just because I don't mention it in the write-up doesn't mean I'm not taking it into account. Your critique that Wayzata should be ahead of Benilde is a perfect example--Benilde is ahead of Wayzata in part because I'm cutting them some slack over those missing players.

Likewise, people were calling for Grand Rapids to dropped from the top 15 after the Forest Lake loss, but I kept them up there in part because I knew they were shorthanded. Only after they lost to St. Francis--with a healthy Jake Bischoff--did they drop out.

Also, there's a big difference between missing one player and missing four. East was missing one 2nd line player in the Denfeld loss last night, but I wouldn't ever use that as an excuse for the loss. When a team has to redo all of their lines (as Edina did), on the other hand...

As for East...where do you see me making excuses for them? Obviously they don't deserve to be #5 after last night, but when a team beats Edina 4-1, Minnetonka 4-1, and Blaine 5-1 within the span of two weeks, isn't that a sign that they're pretty good? A bit inconsistent, certainly, but at the time these rankings were made, I doubt even the harshest critic would have put them lower than #7 or so. And I'll again point out that I've kept East a tiny bit lower than every other human ranking has, all season long.

But you still have Edina too high!!!!! And clearly that is ALL that matters to D3ref.

[Bluewhitefan]

-Dylan Malmquist is out for two weeks with a knee injury.
-Goaltender Willie Benjamin was scratched due to a thumb injury.
-Andy Jordahl and Miguel Fidler have the flu bug that seems to be making its way around the state. I know East and Moorhead were also missing a few players this week for the same reason.

If anyone can make up for those absences, it's the Hornets, but that many missing players will mess with any team.

just curious - why are you so willing to cut the Hornets slack for injuries/illnesses but not other teams?

• When Grand Rapids started slow missing Bischoffs nobody cared.
  
  Eagan got no slack missing Willox in the OT game with Hill, or flu-bug / missing players in the loss at Tonka.
  
  BSM gets no sympathy when Moore and Baer were out of the lineup

For those teams the loss bears the full weight on the rankings you produce.

So why do you cut Edina slack when they are missing a couple guys, and give them a kinda *excused loss* - especially, as you say, when it affects them the least (due to their ability to fill holes).

not being critical. I am just curious to your reasoning. You did the same thing with Duluth East, coming forward with a lot excuses why they under-performed, but with other teams you don't care.

Why the different treatment? Just curious

Wouldn't you cut anyone slack for losing to Hill - at full strength or otherwise? As for BSM, missing Moore is probably on par with missing Malmquist, but missing Baer is something that should not cause them to miss a beat, and is certainly not comparable to the loss of Jordahl and Fidler. That said, however, they should be given NO slack for an uninspired 2-1 win over WBL - with or without the missing players.

[mnmouth]

Boys, boys. These rankings - human, computer, conjured over a crystal ball - mean nothing. In fact, they're all probably wrong, as they provide only a snapshot of what's going on RIGHT NOW, and not how the season will eventually play out in March. Was Benilde really the #1 team in the state on March 11, 2012? Arguably, yes, though plenty of us could have argued East was still the best team. More importantly, Benilde were state champions, which was indisputable. Have fun arguing about these but have some perspective.

[MNHockeyFan]

Boys, boys. These rankings - human, computer, conjured over a crystal ball - mean nothing. In fact, they're all probably wrong, as they provide only a snapshot of what's going on RIGHT NOW, and not how the season will eventually play out in March. Was Benilde really the #1 team in the state on March 11, 2012? Arguably, yes, though plenty of us could have argued East was still the best team. More importantly, Benilde were state champions, which was indisputable. Have fun arguing about these but have some perspective.

mnmouth is right from the standpoint that "at the end of the day" all that really matters is what happens "at the end of the season". People remember that last year it was BSM that was crowned State Champion, not which team was ranked No. 1 the third week of December.

HOWEVER, the end of each season only happens once, at the end of each season. Until that point, it is instructive and yes even fun to assess all the teams, to measure and compare them, and yes to even postulate which one is the best and which one will prove to be the best "at the end of the season".

The alternative is to sit idly by, not commenting on how the teams are doing and which one we think will eventually be crowned as this year's State Champ...when the end of the season arrives.

Bottom line: it's fun following the teams, and especially your favorite team(s) and comparing them to one another. For that, ranking the teams and expressing our opinions on those rankings is a very worthwhile activity. If it wasn't, we wouldn't be doing it!