2012-13 Regular Season Prognosticator of the Year Award

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Tue Feb 05, 2013 10:55 pm

During the regular season we ran 13 weekly contests to test the prognostication skills of interested fans of Minnesota girls high school hockey. I thought it only appropriate to give credit to those who won at least one of the weekly contests, but especially the overall Champion Prognosticator this regular season.

First, here are our weekly winners:

Week 1: Silent But Deadly
Week 2: MNHockeyFan; Otter
Week 3: 36Guy; Otter; Bighead; sinbin
Week 4: Bleedinred
Week 5: backspin; sinbin
Week 6: capitalpride; Otter
Week 7 (Holiday Tournaments): mnhockey3535
Week 8 (Holiday Tournaments): mnhockey3535
Week 9: Otter
Week 10: 36Guy; ayhfan; sinbin
Week 11: fishfreak11
Week 12: Bighead
Week 13: MNHockeyFan; D6 Girls Fan; ayhfan

And we award the 2012-13 regular season's Grand Prize, consisting of "Supreme Bragging Rights", to.......Otter!

Otter either tied for first or came in first 'all alone' a total of four times, more than all the others. So a big congratulations to Otter!

Here are those contestants who either came in 1st or tied for 1st in at least one of the weekly contests:

1st Place: Otter – 4 times

Runner Up: sinbin – 3 times

Third Place (5-way tie - 2 times each):
mnhockey3535 – 2 (won both Holiday Tournament weeks)
36Guy – 2
Bighead – 2
MNHockeyFan – 2
ayhfan – 2

Consolation (won 1 time each):
Silent But Deadly – 1
Bleedinred – 1
backspin – 1
capitalpride – 1
fishfreak11 – 1
D6 Girls Fan - 1

Thanks to all of those who participated! It’s been fun hosting!

(and don’t forget to enter the Sections contest!)

ayhfan · Post by **ayhfan** » Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:40 pm

BTW --Nice job to you for keeping track of all that.

observer · Post by **observer** » Wed Feb 06, 2013 9:10 am

What about overall points leader and total points ranking?

Silent But Deadly · Post by **Silent But Deadly** » Wed Feb 06, 2013 9:35 am

observer wrote:What about overall points leader and total points ranking?

That's what I was thinking.....there's got to be a way to pull a win out of here somehow!!!

As stated earlier....a big thanks to MNHockeyFan for carrying the water on this all season!!!!

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Wed Feb 06, 2013 10:00 am

Silent But Deadly wrote:
observer wrote:What about overall points leader and total points ranking?
That's what I was thinking.....there's got to be a way to pull a win out of here somehow!!!

No matter how you juggle the numbers, SBD, there's not much hope for us...but I'm aiming to redeem myself in Sections where it really counts!

P.S. And SBD I'll try to provide a few more stats if I can find a little spare time.

Otter · Post by **Otter** » Wed Feb 06, 2013 11:00 am

Thank You, Thank You. I hope my winnings come on a novelty check the size of a surfboard.

Seriously though, thanks MNHockeyFan for all the work you do. It's really a gas for those of us whose favorite sport is Girls' HS Hockey.

36Guy · Post by **36Guy** » Wed Feb 06, 2013 12:48 pm

Great job Mnhockeyfan...and props to Otter! Good stuff thanks for the hard work

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Thu Feb 07, 2013 7:46 am

Congratulations Otter and thanks MNHockeyFan!

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Mon Feb 11, 2013 10:15 pm

I've had a chance to do some tabulating from the weekly regular season spreadsheets, and I can now provide some more detail for those of you who may be interested.

First, we would like to hand out "Participation Awards" to those who submitted their predictions for all 13 weeks. So if you didn't do that great as a prognosticator you can at least say that you had a perfect attendance record and tried your hardest!

And I put myself at the very top of that group:

Participation Awards (1st Team) - fairly nice looking plaques!
MNHockeyFan
Silent But Deadly
Knight7
FlyingWarrior
sinbin
ayhfan
mnhockey3535
Racki2016

And the following missed just one contest (2nd Team) -authentic-looking Certificates!:
Otter
Bighead

And this last group missed just two (Honorable Mention) - cheap ribbons only, sorry!:
hockeyfan87
D16Dad
capitalpride
Nordic
36Guy
fishfreak11

OK, now for the actual performance-based awards. I will limit it to the Top 10 in each category ranking:

Overall Point Leaders:
1. sinbin - 135
2. Silent But Deadly - 127
3. MNHockeyFan - 123
ayhfan - 123
5. Racki2016 - 122
6. Knight7 - 117
FlyingWarrior - 117
8. mnhockey3535 - 116
9. Otter - 113
10. Bighead - 111

Recognizing that many did not participate each and every week (subject to a minimum of 7 contests entered - number of contests entered is shown in parenthesis):

Average Points per Contest
1. sinbin - 10.4 (13)
2. woogieboogiewoogie - 10.1 (7)
3. Silent But Deadly - 9.8 (13)
4. capitalpride - 9.6 (11)
36Guy - 9.6 (11)
6. MNHockeyFan - 9.5 (13)
ayhfan - 9.5 (13)
8. Otter - 9.4 (12)
Racki2016 (13)
10. Bighead - 9.3 (12)

Recognizing that the contest for the Holiday Tournament (Weeks 7 & 8 combined) had a much high possible point total than the other weeks - (subject to a minimum of 6 contests entered - number of contests entered is shown in parenthesis) :

Average Points per Contest Excluding the Holiday Tournaments
1. sinbin - 10.3 (11)
2. Nordic - 10.0 (9)
3. Otter- 9.8 (10)
4. 36Guy - 9.6 (11)
5. fishfreak11 - 9.4 (9)
6. MNHockeyFan - 9.3 (11)
Silent But Deadly - 9.3 (11)
8. ayhfan - 9.2 (11)
bighead - 9.2 (11)
10. capitalpride - 9.1 (9)
Racki2016 - 9.1 (11)
Bleedinred - 9.1 ( 8 )

Recognizing that the maximum point totals varied by week, and different people participated in different weeks, the following reflects the percentage of points earned divided by the total points available (based on the actual contests entered by each person -subject to a minimum of 7 contests entered):

Total Points Earned/Total Points Available (percentage)
1. Bleedinred - 76.0% ( 8 )
2. sinbin - 72.2% (13)
3. 36Guy - 68.8% (11)
4. Silent But Deadly - 67.9% (13)
5. woogieboogiewoogie - 66.4% (7)
6. capitalpride - 66.3% (11)
7. MNHockeyFan - 65.8% (13)
ayhfan - 65.8% (13)
9. Otter - 65.3% (12)
10. Racki2016 - 65.2% (13)

Total number of Correct Scores
1. Silent But Deadly - 11
Otter - 11
3. sinbin - 10
ayhfan - 10
5. Knight7 - 9
capitalpride - 9
fishfreak11 - 9
backspin - 9
9. MNHockeyFan - 7
Bighead - 7
Racki2016 - 7

Number of Correct Scores/Number of Games in Contests Entered (percentage - minimum of 7 contests)
1. Otter - 6.8% (161 games)
2. Silent But Deadly - 6.3% (175)
woogieboogiewoogie - 6.3% (95)
3. capitalpride - 6.1% (148)
4. fishfreak11 - 6.0% (149)
5. sinbin - 5.7% (175)
ayhfan - 5.7% (175)
7. Knight7 - 5.1% (175)
8. Bighead - 4.3% (161)
9. MNHockeyFan - 4.0% (175)
Racki2016 - 4.0% (175)

Note: For everyone combined, including those not listed above, the average percentage of getting a correct score was 5.0%.

So who is our overall winner? I would have to give to sinbin! While Bleedinred did extremely well in the 8 contests entered, sinbin excelled over the entire season, having entered all 13 contests and winning the most overall points and finished first in points per contest, both including and excluding the Holiday Tournaments. Congratulations, sinbin! And I would again like to congratulate Otter, who won the MOST weekly contests (4) as noted above.

Also thanks to the many others who entered some contests but not enough of them to meet my arbitrary 50% minimums above:

Hieronymus
oag
luckyEPDad (got an amazing 14.6% correct score percentage, but only over 41 games)
Rocketwrister
FASTWHEATIE
backspin
Bison Buddy
South Suburban
starmvp
D6 Girls Fan
NE14HKY

Thanks again everyone and I welcome any comments or suggestions you might have to make this more fun, which is what it's all about.

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 10:53 am

I did not participate in this but perhaps will next year. Just wanted to acknowledge all the work you put into this as someone should. So thank you. Its nice to see neutral or positive posts amidst all the negativity and haters. We could all learn from you.

Bighead · Post by **Bighead** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:08 am

Thanks MNHockeyFan!!!!

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 11:52 am

I like the way this new math works! Thanks again for your work on this. MNHockeyFan!

Silent But Deadly · Post by **Silent But Deadly** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:07 pm

sinbin wrote:I like the way this new math works! Thanks again for your work on this. MNHockeyFan!

I too like the new math but if you shuffle, add, weight certain measures a bit more I might come out on top!

Thanks again MNHockeyFan for spending a bunch of your "living the dream" retirement time on us!!!

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:16 pm

Silent But Deadly wrote:I too like the new math but if you shuffle, add, weight certain measures a bit more I might come out on top!

SBD, I can email you the spreadsheets if you would like to work on it a bit!

Silent But Deadly wrote:Thanks again MNHockeyFan for spending a bunch of your "living the dream" retirement time on us!!!

Yes, it's been fun. Hockey in the winter, golf and fishing in the other months. Why move south? GO GOPHERS!

P.S. See you tomorrow night, and once again GOOD LUCK!!!

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 12:37 pm

No, I like the weightings just fine as they are. No further analysis is necessary.

Silent But Deadly · Post by **Silent But Deadly** » Tue Feb 12, 2013 2:18 pm

MNHockeyFan wrote:
Silent But Deadly wrote:I too like the new math but if you shuffle, add, weight certain measures a bit more I might come out on top!
SBD, I can email you the spreadsheets if you would like to work on it a bit!

OK......then somehow or another I need to find a way to get rid of sinbin's scores......I suspect he was using an illegal laptop or some other banned foreign object!!!