AA Rankings for 12/22/13

[karl(east)]

Sorry for the delay, everyone...Karl is out of town for the family Christmas party and had, uh, a bit too much fun last night. Here you go:

Here are your pre-holiday tournament rankings, which, as usual, include a preview of the biggest tournaments for AA contenders. We have a look at the sections this week, too.

1. Hill-Murray (7-0)
-The Pioneers are the only undefeated team left in Class AA, making this an even easier choice than before. They weren’t really tested this past week, though that should change in the Schwan Cup. They are on the relatively easy side of the bracket there.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

2. Edina (7-2)
-The Hornets simply do not lose during their Holiday Classic, and they once again pulled out a 3-0 record despite lingering issues on their power play and defense. They have some weaknesses that other teams could exploit, but on the other hand, they’re playing decent hockey right now, and if Giles and Company can continue to build on this young team’s ability to control games, they’re going to be very tough to beat.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

3. Eden Prairie (7-1)
-The Eagles had a strong start to their tournament Edina, but fell in the finale. Considering their track record there, that probably isn’t any great cause for concern. One thing I will say for Lee Smith’s Eagles: while they haven’t pulled off anything that qualifies as a playoff surprise in recent years, the two times they’ve clearly had the talent to win it, they’ve delivered. That is not a common occurrence in AA hockey.
This week: Sports Authority Holiday Classic

4. Blaine (7-1)
-Like Hill, the Bengals were free to cruise this past week. After finishing at the bottom of the Schwan Cup Gold this year, they’ve decided to take their holiday tournament services over to St. Louis Park rather than drop to the Silver Division. Their first-round game is actually a huge conference and section game against a strong Maple Grove team, and if they get through that, they’ll likely have to face a 6AA squad or two in the later rounds. For a team that hasn’t played a terribly difficult schedule to date, it’ll give us a much better idea of where the Bengals stand.
This week: Sports Authority Holiday Classic

5. St. Thomas Academy (4-1-1)
-With only six games under their belts, the Cadets have a shorter résumé than most teams at this point, but aside from one less-than-stellar tie, they’ve delivered in the games they’ve had. Their opening game in the Schwan Cup against Burnsville should be an excellent one, and with a relatively weak schedule in the new year, this tournament may be their best bet for making a real move in the rankings.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

6. Burnsville (6-3)
-The Blaze continued their strong streak in recent games with a solid 6-2 win over Prior Lake, solidifying their position as the top-ranked team in the South Suburban Conference. They aren’t without their weaknesses, but with five straight wins against quality competition, they’re slowly climbing their way up the charts. They got a tough Schwan Cup draw, with St. Thomas followed by either Breck or Edina.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

7. Wayzata (6-3)
-While the Trojans haven’t been off to a dominant start, they remain a consistent team with a strong focus on defense, and a second win over a quality Maple Grove team solidifies their standing as a top ten squad. They’re the top-ranked team of their side of the St. Louis Park bracket, and a potential showdown with Benilde looms in the second round.
This week: Sports Authority Holiday Classic

8. Elk River (5-3)
-The Elks had a poor Edina tournament, dropping all three games and falling from the top five. While they could clearly skate with Edina and Eden Prairie, they weren’t generating nearly as much pressure as those two teams, and the Grand Rapids loss really complicates 7AA. They’re not in a holiday tournament, but they do have a game against a decent section opponent.
This week: Sat vs. Forest Lake

9. Maple Grove (5-3-1)
-The Crimson continue to be a thorn in the side of other good teams, coming back to tie Benilde and losing narrowly to Wayzata. A win over Centennial also helped their standing in 5AA, and they can give themselves an even bigger boost on that front with a good showing against Blaine in the first round of their holiday tournament.
This week: Sports Authority Holiday Classic

10. Holy Family (6-2-1)
-Picked up a narrow but important section win over Minnetonka, which should assure them of a top-4 seed in 6AA. They now get to sit and rest while the rest of the top teams beat up on one another in holiday tournaments.
This week: Idle

11. Prior Lake (4-2)
-The Lakers continue to beat the teams they should beat, but a lopsided loss to Burnsville drops them from the top ten. This week’s Schwan Cup offers this rising program one of its first chances to do something on the statewide scene, and they have a favorable first round start against Minnetonka.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

12. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (7-2-1)
-The Red Knights’ tumultuous start continues, as they choked away a lead against Maple Grove, blew out Moorhead, and barely scraped out a win over Duluth Marshall. This team has plenty of offensive firepower, as the win over Moorhead shows, but until they have yet to achieve any measure of consistency. Their holiday tournament gives them a good opportunity, though they have a decent Jefferson team in the first round.
This Week: Sports Authority Holiday Classic

13. Duluth East (5-2)
-This Hounds edition isn’t going to blow anyone out, and they’re vulnerable to the occasional upset, as they learned against Centennial. Still, they have a quality defensive corps and decent depth, and that’s enough to have them right in the thick of the 7AA race. They get saddled with Hill in the first round of the Schwan Cup, but they have done a good job against the better teams they’ve played so far this season.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

14. Eagan (5-3)
-Lost a squeaker to Prior Lake, which hurts their standing in the South Suburban Conference, but doesn’t do a whole lot to their ranking. They’re in South St. Paul for their tournament again this year, which means they’re probably on a collision course for another final against Hermantown.
This week: Mon at Cretin-Derham Hall; South St. Paul Premier Tournament

15. Grand Rapids (5-3)
-The Thunderhawks clearly do not have the depth of the top Metro teams, but after a win over Elk River and a near escape against Edina, they’ve shown they can be a danger to anyone in the state. Their holiday tournament is easier on paper then most, though Mahtomedi gave Hill a close game last week, and Brainerd is a bit of an unknown and has some talent.
This week: Perpich North-South Challenge; Thurs vs. Mahtomedi, Fri vs. St. Francis, Sat vs. Brainerd

Bubble Teams

Centennial (3-3-1)
-The Cougars had a mixed week, proving the can beat ranked teams in their victory over Duluth East but failing to finish off Moorhead and losing a close game to Maple Grove. They’re a relevant team in 5AA, but they need to make a more convincing impact to move any higher. They are the class of the Silver division of the Schwan Cup, and on paper should win it.

White Bear Lake (7-1-1)
-A stunner against Hopkins drops the Bears out of the top 15, though they did bounce back with a convincing win over 4AA opponent Stillwater. They once again do not have a holiday tournament this season, and play their lone game of the week on Saturday against East Ridge.

Cretin-Derham Hall (6-1-1)
-The Raiders continued their methodical push through the Suburban East last week, and are not in a holiday tournament this year. They do, however, host Eagan in a big section game on Monday.

Lakeville North (6-3)
-The Panthers are quietly off to a pretty strong start, and this past week’s big win over Lakeville South makes them odds-on favorites in 1AA. The Sports Authority tournament could spell trouble for this squad, though, as they drew the short straw and face Eden Prairie in the first round.

Bloomington Jefferson (6-2)
-The Jaguars picked up a quality win over Eastview this past week, restoring their place in the top twenty. Benilde offers an interesting test in the first round of the Sports Authority Holiday Classic; while the Jags won’t be favored here, they are probably good for an upset in this tournament.

Roseau (4-3)
-Took care of Grafton (North Dakota) in their lone game this past week. Host their annual holiday tournament this week, in which their first-round opponent, St. Paul Academy, is probably the biggest threat. They tend to one it pretty comfortably, though.

Eastview (5-2)
-The Lightning have handled the weaker teams they’ve played, but have been in turn handled by stronger teams like Burnsville and Jefferson. As one of the better teams in the Schwan Cup Silver, they have a chance to have a strong week this week.

Moorhead (5-2-1)
-The Spuds have been up and down to start; an 8-goal loss to Benilde doesn’t inspire much confidence, but they did tie Centennial and have a couple of decent wins. They’ll have their hands full in the St. Louis Park tournament.

Brainerd (6-1)
-Have won six straight since a season-opening loss to Alexandria, all by comfortable margins. This week’s battle with Grand Rapids is their first test against a real contender in Class AA.

Minnetonka (4-4)
-The loss to Holy Family makes their path to a top-4 seed in 6AA an uphill battle, but they gave the Fire a good game, and while they’re the weakest team on paper in the Schwan Cup Gold, they can’t be taken for granted, either.

Your sections:

1AA
(19) Lakeville North
Farmington
-After North beat South 6-0 this past week, this one might be a one-team race. Farmington has a win over Rochester Mayo that should all but guarantee a high seed, but their results against large Metro teams don’t really give the impression that they’re a serious danger to North. We’ll see if anyone else can emerge down the stretch.

2AA
2 Edina
6 Burnsville
11 Prior Lake
(20) Bloomington Jefferson
-Edina and Burnsville have both beaten Prior Lake, which means it might be difficult for the Lakers to repeat as the 2-seed. The top spot will get a lot clearer in early January, when Edina and Burnsville face off. There are still a lot of South Suburban games here that could shake things up.

3AA
5 St. Thomas Academy
14 Eagan
(18) Cretin-Derham Hall
(22) Eastview
-There haven’t been any games of much use for section seeding here yet, though that will change this Monday, when Cretin hosts Eagan. It appears to be a four-team race, which each team displaying some unique strengths.

4AA
1 Hill-Murray
(17) White Bear Lake
-White Bear’s big win over Stillwater suggests this is the two-team race we’ve come to expect in this section. Those big two don’t play until mid-January, so unless there’s a surprise upset, things will be pretty quiet here over the next few weeks. No one has made any sort of move for the 3-seed yet.

5AA
4 Blaine
9 Maple Grove
(16) Centennial
-Blaine and Maple Grove have both beaten Centennial, meaning the Cougars have an uphill battle to avoid the 3-seed, but they did give both of them good games, so there is real incentive to grab the top seed here. The Bengals and the Crimson collide in the St. Louis Park tournament this week to decide the early frontrunner.

6AA
3 Eden Prairie
7 Wayzata
10 Holy Family
12 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
(25) Minnetonka
-The big story in the early going here is Holy Family, which has given themselves a good chance at a top-4 seed with wins over Benilde and Minnetonka. The Sports Authority tournament includes three of the contenders, so there might be some clarity after this week; there are still a lot of in-section games to be played here, though.

7AA
15 Grand Rapids
8 Elk River
13 Duluth East
-Rapids’ win over the Elks in Edina throws this section wide open, and makes the East-Rapids January meeting crucial for section seeding. A Rapids win in that game would make the Thunderhawks favorites for the top seed, while an East win would make things come down to every last game for overall strength of schedule. Forest Lake took some lumps against Stillwater, but that one loss doesn’t necessarily mean they’re out of the picture.

8AA
(21) Roseau
(23) Moorhead
(24) Brainerd
-After a solid win over Moorhead, Roseau moves to the top here. Brainerd got a 4-0 win over Bemidji that may make it tough for the Lumberjacks to crack the top three, but there is enough parity here that no one is safe. Still lots of section games to be played in this one.

Holiday tournaments involving multiple teams mentioned, with teams listed in the order they appear on the bracket:

Schwan Cup Gold
11 Prior Lake
(25) Minnetonka
13 Duluth East
1 Hill-Murray
6 Burnsville
5 St. Thomas Academy
2 Edina
(#1 Class A) Breck
-As usual, this is the toughest tourney, particularly one the lower side of the bracket, where there are three top six teams plus a Class A team that would probably crack a two-class top ten. On paper, Hill has a relatively easy road to the final, but this tournament rarely goes according to plan.

Schwan Cup Silver
Stillwater
Lakeville South
Hopkins
(16) Centennial
Mounds View
Roseville
(22) Eastview
Andover
-A bit weaker than usual, and there are a bunch of teams on the bubble of the bubble here. A Centennial-Eastview final would be the most likely outcome, but Andover and Stillwater are also decent teams, and Hopkins and Lakeville South each have a decent win to their names.

Sports Authority Holiday Classic (Formerly St. Louis Park Tournament
3 Eden Prairie
(19) Lakeville North
4 Blaine
9 Maple Grove
7 Wayzata
(23) Moorhead
12 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
(20) Bloomington Jefferson
-As usual, this tournament hosted by Benilde has a field that is right up there with the Schwan Cup Gold. The upper side of the bracket is a bit tougher than the lower side, but there is decent balance here, especially in terms of overall talent. This tournament will be especially useful for measuring the 6AA contenders up against the two quality 5AA teams.

There you go…Merry Christmas, and enjoy some tournament hockey later on in the week.

[alcloseshaver]

Thought ER would finally make 7AA easy to seed this year, THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. Now we can all banter for 2 months about the seedings, which we seem to enjoy...

[alcloseshaver]

Is Karl now speaking in third person? "Karl was out of town"

[SuperStar]

Is Karl now speaking in third person? "Karl was out of town"

[GoldenBear]

Thanks Karl, I think you are sandbagging the Hounds. The 7-13 teams could have been drawn out of a hat; any of those teams could be in any order. Have a great Christmas! GB

[east hockey]

Is Karl now speaking in third person? "Karl was out of town"

Lee thinks this is funny.

Lee

[northwoods oldtimer]

Thought ER would finally make 7AA easy to seed this year, THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. Now we can all banter for 2 months about the seedings, which we seem to enjoy...

Life is good, Old goalie and the DJ can now go at it well into February

[east hockey]

Thought ER would finally make 7AA easy to seed this year, THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN. Now we can all banter for 2 months about the seedings, which we seem to enjoy...

Life is good, Old goalie and the DJ can now go at it well into February

Always fun to watch that one!

Lee

[old goalie85]

Gotta love 7AA !!

[longrebound]

Not that it affects your rankings Karl but Centennial beat Moorhead in overtime. They scored with something like ten seconds left.

Keep up the great work!!

[karl(east)]

Not that it affects your rankings Karl but Centennial beat Moorhead in overtime. They scored with something like ten seconds left.

Keep up the great work!!

Gah, the Hub strikes again. It had it as a tie at some point last night...at least, I think it did. My memory is a little foggy.

That should have been enough to get Centennial ranked, but I'll do the adjustment next week.

On East: as discussed last week, I was cutting them some extra slack; hence the fairly large drop with the Centennial loss. Given their lack of offense, they're going to look like they're playing to the level of their competition sometimes. (I think this is more a result of the style of hockey they're playing at this point in the season than any great inconsistency, but it all amounts to the same in the end. And they did this last season, too, and it sure didn't hurt them in the end.)

7-13 is fairly flexible, though I tried to keep it in a fairly logical A-beat-B-so-A-is-ahead-of-B order. Obviously, that doesn't always work.

It's good to have some 7AA drama, too. It gets a little too predictable when East is always the obvious #1 seed.

[Immigrant Fan]

Minor point of order, but Grand Rapids is actually 6 - 3, with wins over Bemidji, Forest Lake, Rosseau, Warroad, Virginia, and Elk River. Losses were to Duluth Marshall, Edina, and Eden Prairie.

[Sats81]

Nice work as always.

[TheHockeyDJ]

I have a feeling Forest Lake is going to beat Elk River on Saturday. ER just lost 3 in a row and FL just scored 7 in Cloquet, which is difficult any year. If that happens Elk River will have gone from favorite for #1 seed to likely not having much of a shot for either 1 or 2. No matter how the seeds work out the 3/6 and 4/5 games will be very difficult, and seeds 1 and 2 should easily coast to the semi-finals. Less than two months now til section tourney. This is going to be a blast down the stretch. I hope someone streams the ER/FL game on Sat.

[sanryam]

You have a feeling that's what's going to happen or that's what you've talked yourself into to further secure quality GR seeding? Didn't you just accuse others of being "below average hockey observers" in another thread? Pot meet Kettle.

[sanryam]

Elks win 6 1. Berglove has his second best game since Edina game 1

[SuperStar]

Glad I am not doing the upcoming rankings....lots of upsets and tomfoolery...

[northwoods oldtimer]

I have a feeling Forest Lake is going to beat Elk River on Saturday..

Blame it on the pizza