Class A Rankings 1-12-14

[HShockeywatcher]

With Breck struggling as of late, the hold on the top spot has fallen. With the top 4 teams all having different schedules, only two games between them and Hermantown not playing any of the other 3, comparing games can be a mess. A couple games this week with common opponents between the 4 should help more. We're down to looking at 17 teams with 6 sections ranked.
With only 5 weeks left in the season, this season's shaping up to be a good one.

Feedback and input are always appreciated. Enjoy!

1. Warroad (13-2-1)
The Warriors lost two games early to AA teams but 9-0-1 since which includes recent wins over Roseau and Cathedral. They have two good games this week; how will they do against a team Breck lost to in OT?
This week: Thurs @ Thief River Falls, Sat vs Moorhead

2. Breck (9-3-1)
The Mustangs started the season 7-0-1 and have gone 2-3 in their last games. They are a team no one will want to play at state, but they are struggling recently. Two games against top 10 Class A teams this week.
This week: Tues vs Cathedral, Fri vs Duluth Marshall

3. East Grand Forks (11-2-1)
The Green Wave continue to take care of business against the rest of Grand Forks. Three games on the road this week started off with a team Warroad recently beat followed up by one they lost to.
This week: Tues @ Roseau, Thurs @ Bemidji, Sat @ Lake of the Woods

3. Hermantown (11-2)
The Hawks keep winning but unfortunately have proven little with their wins. It will be interesting to see how they do against a Bemidji team who has beaten Warroad and plays EGF on Thurs.
This week: Tues @ Superior, Sat vs Bemidji

5. Duluth Marshall (9-5-1)
The Hilltoppers have the ability to take Breck out of the top 3 this week in the start of their road trip this weekend. Marshall has plenty of quality teams left on their schedule; they will likely be the #2 seed in section 7A and have the potential to have a high seed at state if they can get by Hermantown.
This week: Fri @ Breck, Sat @ Roseville

6. New Prague (10-2-2)
The Trojans have Albert Lea, Lourdes, Missota teams and Hermantown left on their schedule. It will be interesting to see how they do with Hermantown in two week.
This week: Tues @ Red Wing, Thurs vs Northfield

7. Mankato West (13-2)
There isn’t much to say about the Scarlets anymore; they’ll probably finish the season 23-2 and get the #2 seed in 1A. It will be interesting to see how they end up ranked if they can pull out a win over New Prague the second time around.
This week: Sat vs Northfield

8. Totino-Grace (6-6-1)
The Eagles brought their record up to .500 and should pick up a pair of wins this week, but it is the game next week at Breck that they should be getting ready for at this point.
This week: Thurs @ Irondale, Sat @ Spring Lake Park

9. Cathedral (9-5)
After starting the year 8-0, the Crusaders are 1-4 in their last 5 games, but with the last 3 losses being to top 4 teams, it’s hard to say much about them. They play the 4th of the top 4 teams this week in Golden Valley; will the slide have to wait until Thurs to stop?
This week: Tues @ Breck, Thurs @ Becker, Fri vs Mora

10. St Paul Academy (9-5)
Losing by 1 to Breck and 8 to Marshall seems quite odd on paper. The Spartans are clearly a good team, but the gap between them and the top teams seems to be there. It will be interesting to see how the coaches in 4A rank them against Totino and Mahtomedi. With only Blake and Breck left who will likely challenge them, they should be able to better their 17-8 regular season record from last year by at least 1 win.
This week: Tues vs Minnehaha Academy

11. Mahtomedi (7-6)
The Zephyrs picked up two conference wins last week and play 3 road games this week, 2 of which are conference games. Likely the end the season with more losses than both Totino and SPA, they have the best schedule of the 3.
This week: Tues @ Blake, Thurs @ North St Paul, Sat @ Richfield

12. Alexandria (9-3-1)
The Cardinals play their makeup game with Apollo on Monday this week with the possibility of securing the #2 seed in the section. A win in Brainerd on Thursday would be nice as well.
This week: Mon @ Apollo, Tues vs River Lakes, Thurs @ Brainerd

13. Orono (10-4)
The Spartans are 8-1 in their last 9 games and should be challenged at least twice this week. A win over Delano on Thursday would put them in the driver’s seat for the #2 seed in section 2A.
This week: Tues vs Holy Family, Thurs vs Delano, Sat vs Hopkins

14. Luverne (16-0-1)
The Cardinals continue to win. Having beaten Kennedy by the same score as Orono and now beaten Willmar better than Alexandria did, it would be hard not to rank Luverne at this point. There appears to be only one team on their schedule who may challenge them. With both an 8th and 10th grader in the top 5 in the state in scoring and a senior in the top 10, this team has a bright future. It would be great to see them compete at state.
This week: Fri vs Redwood Valley

15. Thief River Falls (9-5)
The Prowlers are 6-0 in their most recent games and their 3 most recent losses have been to 3 of the top 4 teams in the state. They were shut out in Warroad the first time they played but neither team has lost since; it should be a good game on Thursday.
This week: Thurs vs Warroad


On the bubble:

Virginia (9-5-1)
The Rochester Mayo loss doesn’t look good, but after picking up the win over Hibbing, the Blue Devils are technically in the driver’s seat for getting the 2nd seed in the section. They travel to Willmar on Saturday, a team Luverne recently shut out.
This week: Tues vs North Shore, Fri @ Hutchinson, Sat @ Willmar

Denfeld (7-8]
The record isn’t good but half of their losses are to AA teams and 3 of their losses are by a score of 3-2, two being to Hermantown and Cathedral and they beat a Superior team Marshall lost to. If they can pick up a win this week over Hibbing, they are likely in line for the #3 seed in sections; beating Marshall at the end of January with throw a big wrench in section rankings.
This week: Tues @ Hibbing, Thurs @ Cloquet


Section Rankings
1A
#1 New Prague
#2 Mankato West

2A
#1 Breck
#2 Chaska
#3 Kennedy
#4 Orono
#5 Delano
#6 St Louis Park
#7 Blake
#8 Minneapolis

3A
#1 Luverne
#2 Willmar
#3 New Ulm
#4 Hutchinson

4A
#1 Mahtomedi
#2 Totino-Grace
#3 St Paul Academy
Mahtomedi beat Totino by 1, Totino beat SPA by 2, SPA beat Mahtomedi by 1. The 3 teams have very different schedule, it’s really anybody’s guess how they will end up ranked come sections. Whoever lands the top spot should have an easy ride to the section final.

5A
#1 Chisago Lakes
#2 Spring Lake Park
#3 Princeton

7A
#1 Hermantown
#2 Duluth Marshall
#3 Virginia
#4 Hibbing
#5 Denfeld
Hermantown still has section opponents to play but there is little they can do to lose the top spot in the section. With many remaining games to be played, any of the others could end up with any of the top 5 seeds with the right wins. Denfeld plays Hibbing this week, so we could have some movement by this time next week.

[Immigrant Fan]

As a minor point of order, one of Warroad's early losses was to Grand Rapids, in 7AA, not 8AA.

[StanleyCup55]

Section 6? Section 8?

[notTONIGHT]

I'd like to propose the preposterous, and see if an intelligent discussion about something very uncomfortable can be discussed.

If Luverne runs the table with their weak schedule, and advances through the section tournament to state, do they get seeded?

I know its unlikely, going undefeated is an extremely rare feat. I would be suprised if it happens, but looking at the remaining games, you cant tell me its not possible.

Its intriguing to think about, and the collective heads exploding around the state of hockey would be scary.

Clearly, if Luverne loses even one game they have NO chance to be seeded, but if they do go undefeated, then what?

P.S. Just a reminder this is a forum for discussion, even things that may be on the fringe of reality. So, lets not forget that. Personal attacks can go somewhere else please.

[elliott70]

If the 1 's win their sections, then, no, they would not be seeded.

[notTONIGHT]

I think winner of 2A (breck) 7A (Hermantown/Duluth Marshall) or 8A (Warroad/EGF) clearly deserve it over an undefeated luverne, but that fourth seed is up for grabs. Would you take the 1A winner (New Prague/MW) even though they have a couple losses? Or 4A?

I know a lot can happen, as i previously said, but its a boring monday. Food for thought.

[east hockey]

I think winner of 2A (breck) 7A (Hermantown/Duluth Marshall) or 8A (Warroad/EGF) clearly deserve it over an undefeated luverne, but that fourth seed is up for grabs. Would you take the 1A winner (New Prague/MW) even though they have a couple losses? Or 4A?

I know a lot can happen, as i previously said, but its a boring monday. Food for thought.

I would seed both New Prague and Totino-Grace (4A) ahead of Luverne. Also St Cloud Cathedral (6A)

It would take a number of upsets of top-seeded teams for Luverne to make a strong argument for being seeded.

Regardless of reason, it goes to strength of schedule. Whether or not Luverne can help this, it is exactly that.

Lee

[notTONIGHT]

I think winner of 2A (breck) 7A (Hermantown/Duluth Marshall) or 8A (Warroad/EGF) clearly deserve it over an undefeated luverne, but that fourth seed is up for grabs. Would you take the 1A winner (New Prague/MW) even though they have a couple losses? Or 4A?

I know a lot can happen, as i previously said, but its a boring monday. Food for thought.

I would seed both New Prague and Totino-Grace (4A) ahead of Luverne. Also St Cloud Cathedral (6A)

It would take a number of upsets of top-seeded teams for Luverne to make a strong argument for being seeded.

Regardless of reason, it goes to strength of schedule. Whether or not Luverne can help this, it is exactly that.

Lee

The only possible argument, would be the undefeated season, IMO.

[pekyman]

I think winner of 2A (breck) 7A (Hermantown/Duluth Marshall) or 8A (Warroad/EGF) clearly deserve it over an undefeated luverne, but that fourth seed is up for grabs. Would you take the 1A winner (New Prague/MW) even though they have a couple losses? Or 4A?

I know a lot can happen, as i previously said, but its a boring monday. Food for thought.

I would seed both New Prague and Totino-Grace (4A) ahead of Luverne. Also St Cloud Cathedral (6A)

It would take a number of upsets of top-seeded teams for Luverne to make a strong argument for being seeded.

Regardless of reason, it goes to strength of schedule. Whether or not Luverne can help this, it is exactly that.

Lee

The only possible argument, would be the undefeated season, IMO.

NP, TG and probably SCC would walk through Luverne's schedule undefeated so I don't think it's much of an argument.

[TheSiouxSuck]

I would say there is no chance, undefeated or not. This is the Little Falls effect, back when they were pumping out Hanowski's and Festlers they had a similar situation putting up gaudy wins and people cried their schedule was too weak. And the schedule they played was way stronger than what Luverne has faced.

[notTONIGHT]

Not saying this to be snarky, because I really do not know, but how often has a team gone undefeated in a season? Is this something that has been done often? (I say again I dont think Luverne will finish undefeated)

[elliott70]

I think winner of 2A (breck) 7A (Hermantown/Duluth Marshall) or 8A (Warroad/EGF) clearly deserve it over an undefeated luverne, but that fourth seed is up for grabs. Would you take the 1A winner (New Prague/MW) even though they have a couple losses? Or 4A?

I know a lot can happen, as i previously said, but its a boring monday. Food for thought.

I would seed both New Prague and Totino-Grace (4A) ahead of Luverne. Also St Cloud Cathedral (6A)

It would take a number of upsets of top-seeded teams for Luverne to make a strong argument for being seeded.

Regardless of reason, it goes to strength of schedule. Whether or not Luverne can help this, it is exactly that.

Lee

The only possible argument, would be the undefeated season, IMO.

An argument made tot he coaches and not very many, if any, will have seen Luverne play. Looking just at their record, one of them may say, yeah top 4, but I do not see enough of them thinking that to give themn a seed.

Best chance is for some upsets.

1A NP oir MW, both ahead of Luverne from what I think the coached would vote.
Upsets from LaCrescent or St Peter. low probability

2A Breck
Orono, Delano, Chaska. very low probability.

4A Mahtomedi or Totino
SPA or AA, not probable.

5A Chisago Lakes
or Spring Lake Park or Princeton
or Legacy Christian, possible.

6A Alex or St Cloud Cathedral
or Sauk Rapids, or Sartell, or St Cloud Apollo

7A Hermantown
or DMarshall
or Virginia, Hibbing or Denfeld
no probable

8A East Grand or Warroad
or Thief River Falls
or Park Rapids.... not probable.

I can't see the coaches putting them ahead of
1A either of the 2 contenders
2A Its going to be Breck, they will be seeded one.
4A They may get a 4 seed.
5A Luverne could get a nod here.
6A This is a toss up section. Luverne could get a nod here.
7A Hermantown. They will get teh 2 seed.
8A. EGF or Warroad, outside shot for TRF.
Winner here will get the 3 seed.

So Luverne needs
1A St Peter/LaCrescent for 2 usets in sections. (or 1 from each)
AND
4A Academy Achiever with 2 upsets.

So we would have
Breck
Hermantown
EGF or Warroad

and #4
Luverne

5 - 8 in no order
1A double upset winner
4A double upset winner
5A & 6A

6A woud probably have to be the 3rd seed.

[elliott70]

Off the top of my head
Intl Falls
Bloomingto Jefferson....

Regular season or the whole season

Those 2 won the whole thing.


I think Roseau may have done it in the 50's.

[elliott70]

Intls Falls did it back to back in 65 - 66.

I am thinking the top two teams, St Paul Johnson and Intl Falls, in 63 & 64 may have been undefeated going into the championship game.

Johnson won in 63 and the Falls in 64, so one of them may have been undefeated.

FYI - Falls won in 62 and lost in OT in 63, very close to run of 5.

[notTONIGHT]

I was just talking about regular season. So, just a handful of undefeated regular seasons in the history of MNHS hockey would be fair to say right?

[elliott70]

I know in 1970 Mpls Southwest and Edina had great records, not sure if state championship was Edina's first loss, but Southwest I think ended without a loss.

[pekyman]

2007 Hermantown Hawks 29-0-1
2012 Hermantown Hawks 25-0

[elliott70]

I was just talking about regular season. So, just a handful of undefeated regular seasons in the history of MNHS hockey would be fair to say right?

I would say a dozen maybe 2, without counting the 40'2s and 50's.
I remember some classic state tourney games with undefeated teams in quarters and semis (no seeding back then).

[MNHockeyFan]

I would say a dozen maybe 2, without counting the 40'2s and 50's. I remember some classic state tourney games with undefeated teams in quarters and semis (no seeding back then).

In the 60's these teams went undefeated, including sections (called "Regions" back then) and each went on to win the State Tournament:

1963 - St. Paul Johnson 20-0
1965 - International Falls 22-0
1966 - International Falls 22-0

http://www.minnhock.com/state-tournament-1960.htm

[MNHockeyFan]

From the same site:

1974 - Edina East 23-0 (they were losing in the semi to Henry Sibley 0-3 with 10 minutes to go)
1983 - Hill-Murray 27-0
1993 - Bloomington Jefferson 27-0

[karl(east)]

If we're talking about undefeated teams going to State, we should probably separate Class AA from Class A. Very different ballgames, and there hasn't been an undefeated AA Tourney entrant since 1997.

In Class A, on the other hand, it happens with some regularity:

2012 Hermantown--seeded 1st; lost a lopsided championship game to 2nd-seeded St. Thomas.
2009 Little Falls--seeded 1st; blown out by 4th-seeded Breck in the semis.
2007 Hermantown (prior to seeding)--State Champs
2005 Warroad--State Champs
1997 Red Wing--State Champs
1995 Hutchinson--lost in first round to Red Wing, which finished 4th; won consolation title

I'd tend to agree that Luverne's odds at a 4 or 5 seed (remember, they seed the top 5 now) are long. Barring major upsets, I think Breck and the champs of 7A and 8A are locks for the top 3. But 4A and 1A each have a couple of good teams in there, and Cathedral is lurking, too. There are a whole bunch of sections with at least 2 teams in the top 10, and that hurts Luverne's chances.

It's also worth noting that, while undefeated, they aren't unblemished. They do have a tie against a less-than-stellar opponent. They're pushing the top 15 in both the computer and human polls, but I don't see much of a path for them to go drastically higher unless they start blowing out everyone they play by huge margins.

On a completely unrelated note, does anyone know much about 5A? I've seen near-zero discussion of that section on the forum. Has anyone seen Chisago Lakes, SLP, etc. play? I know they aren't great, but we will be seeing one of them in St. Paul come March.

[BP]

With Breck struggling as of late, the hold on the top spot has fallen. With the top 4 teams all having different schedules, only two games between them and Hermantown not playing any of the other 3, comparing games can be a mess. A couple games this week with common opponents between the 4 should help more. We're down to looking at 17 teams with 6 sections ranked.
With only 5 weeks left in the season, this season's shaping up to be a good one.

Feedback and input are always appreciated. Enjoy!

1. Warroad (13-2-1)
The Warriors lost two games early to AA teams but 9-0-1 since which includes recent wins over Roseau and Cathedral. They have two good games this week; how will they do against a team Breck lost to in OT?
This week: Thurs @ Thief River Falls, Sat vs Moorhead

2. Breck (9-3-1)
The Mustangs started the season 7-0-1 and have gone 2-3 in their last games. They are a team no one will want to play at state, but they are struggling recently. Two games against top 10 Class A teams this week.
This week: Tues vs Cathedral, Fri vs Duluth Marshall

3. East Grand Forks (11-2-1)
The Green Wave continue to take care of business against the rest of Grand Forks. Three games on the road this week started off with a team Warroad recently beat followed up by one they lost to.
This week: Tues @ Roseau, Thurs @ Bemidji, Sat @ Lake of the Woods

3. Hermantown (11-2)
The Hawks keep winning but unfortunately have proven little with their wins. It will be interesting to see how they do against a Bemidji team who has beaten Warroad and plays EGF on Thurs.
This week: Tues @ Superior, Sat vs Bemidji

5. Duluth Marshall (9-5-1)
The Hilltoppers have the ability to take Breck out of the top 3 this week in the start of their road trip this weekend. Marshall has plenty of quality teams left on their schedule; they will likely be the #2 seed in section 7A and have the potential to have a high seed at state if they can get by Hermantown.
This week: Fri @ Breck, Sat @ Roseville

6. New Prague (10-2-2)
The Trojans have Albert Lea, Lourdes, Missota teams and Hermantown left on their schedule. It will be interesting to see how they do with Hermantown in two week.
This week: Tues @ Red Wing, Thurs vs Northfield

7. Mankato West (13-2)
There isn’t much to say about the Scarlets anymore; they’ll probably finish the season 23-2 and get the #2 seed in 1A. It will be interesting to see how they end up ranked if they can pull out a win over New Prague the second time around.
This week: Sat vs Northfield

8. Totino-Grace (6-6-1)
The Eagles brought their record up to .500 and should pick up a pair of wins this week, but it is the game next week at Breck that they should be getting ready for at this point.
This week: Thurs @ Irondale, Sat @ Spring Lake Park

9. Cathedral (9-5)
After starting the year 8-0, the Crusaders are 1-4 in their last 5 games, but with the last 3 losses being to top 4 teams, it’s hard to say much about them. They play the 4th of the top 4 teams this week in Golden Valley; will the slide have to wait until Thurs to stop?
This week: Tues @ Breck, Thurs @ Becker, Fri vs Mora

10. St Paul Academy (9-5)
Losing by 1 to Breck and 8 to Marshall seems quite odd on paper. The Spartans are clearly a good team, but the gap between them and the top teams seems to be there. It will be interesting to see how the coaches in 4A rank them against Totino and Mahtomedi. With only Blake and Breck left who will likely challenge them, they should be able to better their 17-8 regular season record from last year by at least 1 win.
This week: Tues vs Minnehaha Academy

11. Mahtomedi (7-6)
The Zephyrs picked up two conference wins last week and play 3 road games this week, 2 of which are conference games. Likely the end the season with more losses than both Totino and SPA, they have the best schedule of the 3.
This week: Tues @ Blake, Thurs @ North St Paul, Sat @ Richfield

12. Alexandria (9-3-1)
The Cardinals play their makeup game with Apollo on Monday this week with the possibility of securing the #2 seed in the section. A win in Brainerd on Thursday would be nice as well.
This week: Mon @ Apollo, Tues vs River Lakes, Thurs @ Brainerd

13. Orono (10-4)
The Spartans are 8-1 in their last 9 games and should be challenged at least twice this week. A win over Delano on Thursday would put them in the driver’s seat for the #2 seed in section 2A.
This week: Tues vs Holy Family, Thurs vs Delano, Sat vs Hopkins

14. Luverne (16-0-1)
The Cardinals continue to win. Having beaten Kennedy by the same score as Orono and now beaten Willmar better than Alexandria did, it would be hard not to rank Luverne at this point. There appears to be only one team on their schedule who may challenge them. With both an 8th and 10th grader in the top 5 in the state in scoring and a senior in the top 10, this team has a bright future. It would be great to see them compete at state.
This week: Fri vs Redwood Valley

15. Thief River Falls (9-5)
The Prowlers are 6-0 in their most recent games and their 3 most recent losses have been to 3 of the top 4 teams in the state. They were shut out in Warroad the first time they played but neither team has lost since; it should be a good game on Thursday.
This week: Thurs vs Warroad


On the bubble:

Virginia (9-5-1)
The Rochester Mayo loss doesn’t look good, but after picking up the win over Hibbing, the Blue Devils are technically in the driver’s seat for getting the 2nd seed in the section. They travel to Willmar on Saturday, a team Luverne recently shut out.
This week: Tues vs North Shore, Fri @ Hutchinson, Sat @ Willmar

Denfeld (7-8]
The record isn’t good but half of their losses are to AA teams and 3 of their losses are by a score of 3-2, two being to Hermantown and Cathedral and they beat a Superior team Marshall lost to. If they can pick up a win this week over Hibbing, they are likely in line for the #3 seed in sections; beating Marshall at the end of January with throw a big wrench in section rankings.
This week: Tues @ Hibbing, Thurs @ Cloquet


Section Rankings
1A
#1 New Prague
#2 Mankato West

2A
#1 Breck
#2 Chaska
#3 Kennedy
#4 Orono
#5 Delano
#6 St Louis Park
#7 Blake
#8 Minneapolis

3A
#1 Luverne
#2 Willmar
#3 New Ulm
#4 Hutchinson

4A
#1 Mahtomedi
#2 Totino-Grace
#3 St Paul Academy
Mahtomedi beat Totino by 1, Totino beat SPA by 2, SPA beat Mahtomedi by 1. The 3 teams have very different schedule, it’s really anybody’s guess how they will end up ranked come sections. Whoever lands the top spot should have an easy ride to the section final.

5A
#1 Chisago Lakes
#2 Spring Lake Park
#3 Princeton

7A
#1 Hermantown
#2 Duluth Marshall
#3 Virginia
#4 Hibbing
#5 Denfeld
Hermantown still has section opponents to play but there is little they can do to lose the top spot in the section. With many remaining games to be played, any of the others could end up with any of the top 5 seeds with the right wins. Denfeld plays Hibbing this week, so we could have some movement by this time next week.

HSHockey Watcher......do you get out and see a lot of the these teams? I think you do a nice job, just curious if you take these teams in.

[warriors41]

If we're talking about undefeated teams going to State, we should probably separate Class AA from Class A. Very different ballgames, and there hasn't been an undefeated AA Tourney entrant since 1997.

Wasn't Roseau undefeated in 2008 when they got to the tournament? They were dominant after they won state in 2007.

[karl(east)]

If we're talking about undefeated teams going to State, we should probably separate Class AA from Class A. Very different ballgames, and there hasn't been an undefeated AA Tourney entrant since 1997.

Wasn't Roseau undefeated in 2008 when they got to the tournament? They were dominant after they won state in 2007.

Yes, you're right...that occurred to me right after posting.

That makes for a total of 3 undefeated AA teams entering the Tourney since the 2-class split. 1994 Jefferson (won), 1997 East (lost the final), and 2008 Roseau (lost in semis).

[HShockeywatcher]

If Luverne runs the table with their weak schedule, and advances through the section tournament to state, do they get seeded?

I know its unlikely, going undefeated is an extremely rare feat. I would be suprised if it happens, but looking at the remaining games, you cant tell me its not possible.

My gut reaction is no. However, I look back to the 08-09 season when a LF team who played all of one "quality opponent" (in their third game mind you) ran the table and got the #1 seed. Not at all saying they are as good as LF was or that their weak schedule is as good as LF's was, but in a vacuum it would be very hard to see any team make it to state with a record of 27-0-1 and not have a number next to their name.

NP, TG and probably SCC would walk through Luverne's schedule undefeated so I don't think it's much of an argument.

Breck likely would've walked through LF's schedule undefeated in 08-09 yet they were the #4 seed...


Ultimately, I doubt they'll get seeded. But with the score comparisons I commented on this week and some upsets, it's possible. Totino has a good shot of ending with just over a .500 record on the regular season and Mahtomedi won't be too far ahead.