Section 6AA

panpan111 · Post by **panpan111** » Mon Jan 27, 2014 3:58 pm

Let's get it going! Seeding, predictions, history...bring it!

Can anyone in the Section beat this group?
http://www.letsplayhockey.com/online-ed ... ockey.html

massalsa · Post by **massalsa** » Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:00 pm

I (humbly) think that the D1 factory Red Knights will end up a #2 or #3 seed and will either match up in the semi's vs Skippers or Royals to get to the final. If Skippers wins against EP thursday night they will most likely secure the #1 seed. If they lose then #1 will be the Royals.

I think it will be a battle for BSM and whomever they play in the 2 vs 3 matchup to get to the Section championship. I believe that Wayzata will be #4. They certainly could beat any of the top 3 seeds in a semi and final (they handed hopkins their first loss) and to go to state but it would be a real upset if that was the case.

That being said I think that it is a HUGE advantage whomever has the #1 seed being able to dodge the #2 & #3 (any combo of Mtka/Hopkins/BSM) until the championship.

Hopkins lost game #1 in the section last year vs Armstrong when they were a favorite. Anything can happen but I believe that the most interesting matchup for a final game would be Hopkins vs BSM. They have not played this year (while hop/tonka has played 2x). Hop/Tonka/BSM all have D1 committed goalies, Tonka has the best D player in the state (maybe the best player period?), Hopkins has 3 U18 team USA players (one at each position) and BSM has 5 senior D1 committed Forwards.

Should be very interesting!

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:35 pm

Considering that last year BSM was ranked #1 in the State in I believe every poll you could find but came out of Section Seeding meetings #2, I don't see them coming out #1 this year either primarily because the Lake Conference will once again have three votes. I seem to recall though that BSM plays EP this Thursday? If a win for Tonka gets them the #1 seed would the same apply to BSM? Maybe I read the post wrong. Regardless of the seeding, this Section is no longer a two team race. Four teams at least have a pretty equal shot and yes, seeding will be an advantage for someone. Even so, might as well beat them all if you want to feel like you earned it.

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Mon Jan 27, 2014 5:43 pm

Yes, much bigger advantage than normal to be the #1 seed this year. Not to take anything away from Wayzata, but easier to beat Wayzata and 1 of Tonka, BSM, and Hopkins than to beat 2 of Tonka, BSM, and Hopkins. Tonka has beat this group of BSM 3 years in a row; most said that this was close to impossible. Now Tonka has lost 5 of their >=8 D1 players, so even a more difficult challenge. But with their top D and G, they are in every game. Will they get timely scoring from role players again this year? Will a scorer emerge during the playoffs? Of course, Hopkins is tough as is BSM, but neither has won the big game recently. Wayzata could certainly spring one upset, but can they spring two? No matter what, the team that emerges from here will have earned their spot as no other team in MN likely ever has. Great games down at Parade again, should be a blast to watch.

notahockeyguy · Post by **notahockeyguy** » Mon Jan 27, 2014 7:32 pm

Hopkins
Minnetonka
BSM
Wayzata
Maple Grove
Arm/Cooper
NMetro

Don't Poke The Bear · Post by **Don't Poke The Bear** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 1:04 pm

Considering that last year BSM was ranked #1 in the State in I believe every poll you could find but came out of Section Seeding meetings #2, I don't see them coming out #1 this year either primarily because the Lake Conference will once again have three votes.

The deciding factor last year may have been BSM's lower strength of schedule Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think their SOS is much stronger this year, moving from mid 30s to #3. Do coaches really vote for teams just because they are in their own conference? Would seem there are voting criteria they need to follow since it is for seeding and not a popularity vote.

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Tue Jan 28, 2014 10:59 pm

You are correct that this year BSMs SOS is much better. However, I don't think all the other pollsters ignore schedules when ranking teams so that's not a legitimate excuse for being #1 in state and only #2 in your section. Either way, last year is last year. It does suggest though that its clearly not an objective process. My understanding is each coach makes his/her pitch and then they vote. I heard things about last year but I wasn't there so i won't repeat it. With respect to the Lake Conference, its easy to believe that is the best conference and therefore conclude all of those teams are better than the rest. And if you are voting and you are one of those teams, then you could easily convince yourself of that. Doesn't make it right and I think teams like HM, BSM and others would argue there are other teams just as good or better.

With respect to this year, with Tonka losing to EP tonight and finishing the year something like 3-3-3, Hopkins going something like 2-2 in their last games and allegedly losing their top D for the season (not sure that is true), and Wayzata apparently struggling, a second victory for BSM @ EP on Thursday night could make it very difficult to give it to a Lake Conference team. Lots of ifs. We can all only hope its an objective process but at the end of the day its likely most would vote in a manner that would give their team the best shot at advancing. So, if you are Tonka or Hopkins, you place BSM 3rd or 4th (or even lower if you have no integrity) and hope they end up no higher than 2nd when the rest of the teams get done voting. Unless of course you are trying to avoid each other! Should be interesting if BSM does manage to beat the Lake Conference Champion EP a second time this year on the road. And I repeat from my earlier post, if you are going to get out of Section 6AA you may as well beat the best so you fell like you earned it.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Wed Jan 29, 2014 12:33 am

Nimrod wrote:You are correct that this year BSMs SOS is much better. However, I don't think all the other pollsters ignore schedules when ranking teams so that's not a legitimate excuse for being #1 in state and only #2 in your section. Either way, last year is last year. It does suggest though that its clearly not an objective process. My understanding is each coach makes his/her pitch and then they vote. I heard things about last year but I wasn't there so i won't repeat it. With respect to the Lake Conference, its easy to believe that is the best conference and therefore conclude all of those teams are better than the rest. And if you are voting and you are one of those teams, then you could easily convince yourself of that. Doesn't make it right and I think teams like HM, BSM and others would argue there are other teams just as good or better.

With respect to this year, with Tonka losing to EP tonight and finishing the year something like 3-3-3, Hopkins going something like 2-2 in their last games and allegedly losing their top D for the season (not sure that is true), and Wayzata apparently struggling, a second victory for BSM @ EP on Thursday night could make it very difficult to give it to a Lake Conference team. Lots of ifs. We can all only hope its an objective process but at the end of the day its likely most would vote in a manner that would give their team the best shot at advancing. So, if you are Tonka or Hopkins, you place BSM 3rd or 4th (or even lower if you have no integrity) and hope they end up no higher than 2nd when the rest of the teams get done voting. Unless of course you are trying to avoid each other! Should be interesting if BSM does manage to beat the Lake Conference Champion EP a second time this year on the road. And I repeat from my earlier post, if you are going to get out of Section 6AA you may as well beat the best so you fell like you earned it.

Wayzata appears to be done for the regular season. They had lost five in a row, all Lake Conference games, to EP, Edina, Hopkins, Tonka and EP again, before rebounding to win their last two, with 3-2 wins over Buffalo and Edina this evening.

Minnetonka has also had a disappointing finish, at least for a team still ranked No. 1 in LPH. In 2014 they tied Buffalo, lost to Hopkins twice, split with Eden Prairie, tied Edina and beat Wayzata for an overall record in January of 2-3-2. Not what you would expect for the No. 1 ranked team in the state and the three time Class AA defending state champs. They have three remaining games, against Centennial, Blake and Stillwater, the latter of which shouldn't figure into the Section 6AA seedings.

If reports are true, Hopkins' star defender Grace Bizal is out for the balance of the season, which not only is extremely unfortunate for her but obviously presents a serious challenge for the Royals that they will need to overcome. From the game stats it appears that her last game was against Wayzata on the 14th, and since then they've gone 1-2, losing to EP and Edina before rebounding against Tonka 1-0 this past Saturday. They have one scheduled regular season game left, against a resurgent Maple Grove team this coming Saturday. As of today Hopkins does have the best record within the section, at 4-1, but the Crimson figures to present a tough challenge. And one of their four section wins is against North Metro, so that will probably be discarded when the coaches go to vote.

In terms of the likely Top 4 in 6AA, that leaves BSM. After losing their last game to a very strong Hill-Murray team, their only defeat in January, their next two games against No. 6AA Eden Prairie and No. 10AA Irondale should figure heavily - considering the other top teams have had their own difficulties lately - into where they get seeded. It so so close, IMO, that depending on how they and the Hopkins/Maple Grove comes out and how Tonka finishes their season, BSM could conceivably be seeded anywhere from No. 1 to 3...it will interesting to see how it all plays out.

I know it's been rehashed to death, but this is an extremely talented section - definitely the strongest in the State. No matter how it shakes out, watch out for Maple Grove, because they could easily pull the upset on any of the so-called Top 4 once the section games begin.

massalsa · Post by **massalsa** » Wed Jan 29, 2014 2:11 am

The rumor is not true that Grace Bizal of Hopkins is out for the year. She was sick and out for the game against EP (thought she might have mono but the test was negative) and they lost 4-3 and the team certainly did not look great with her out. I can't imagine that the outcome would have been the same with healthy Bizal playing D. .

She played against Edina but looked tired (the whole team did not look real sharp from what I heard). She actually had the slap shot that was tipped by Hanley for the only goal of the game against Tonka.

If BSM beats EP it certainly should help them in seeding. They should beat Irondale handily as Hopkins beat them to win the Edina Christmas tourney. Hopkins had their goalie O'Neill, Rogers, & Bizal at USA U18 camp so they were VERY short handed.

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Wed Jan 29, 2014 8:29 am

Whomever wins will need to beat two of the top 10 teams in the state and MG and AC are no slouches, either. Then, once at state, things get a little bit easier for the survivor, at least for a game or two. More brutal than usual for 6AA this season.

D6 Girls Fan · Post by **D6 Girls Fan** » Wed Jan 29, 2014 9:16 am

No dog in this fight, but I think last night Tonka locked in the 3 seed here unless BSM drops both their last games. Hopkins beat Tonka twice, no way they can be seeded behind Tonka. BSM has 19 wins already, that's the best Tonka can do. If BSM wins out (and I think EP will have something to say about that), I'd probably seed them #1.

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Wed Jan 29, 2014 11:57 pm

I do have a dog in this fight, but if BSM does manage to beat the Lake Conference Champ twice on the road (including at the end of the season when there should be no excuses) and still ends up behind Tonka and/or Hopkins, then its time to call BS! You cannot say you are the best and then have your Champ lose twice at home to someone else with only two losses on the season and ignore that. And if rumors are true that one and/or both refused to play BSM this year, then…(insert your own thoughts here). Now that i have all the Lake Conference Dads rooting for EP, I will hang up. Good stuff! Its fun to have the last couple games mean something regardless of what happens. Lets all hope the teams that deserve to move on are the ones that do. Although i am pretty sure there is no wrong answer when it comes to 6AA so long as the girls are allowed to decide the outcome.

royals dad · Post by **royals dad** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 8:05 am

Nimrod wrote:I do have a dog in this fight, but if BSM does manage to beat the Lake Conference Champ twice on the road (including at the end of the season when there should be no excuses) and still ends up behind Tonka and/or Hopkins, then its time to call BS! You cannot say you are the best and then have your Champ lose twice at home to someone else with only two losses on the season and ignore that. And if rumors are true that one and/or both refused to play BSM this year, then…(insert your own thoughts here). Now that i have all the Lake Conference Dads rooting for EP, I will hang up. Good stuff! Its fun to have the last couple games mean something regardless of what happens. Lets all hope the teams that deserve to move on are the ones that do. Although i am pretty sure there is no wrong answer when it comes to 6AA so long as the girls are allowed to decide the outcome.

Going to OT with MV and TG in the last few weeks might hurt BSM a bit remember this is subjective and not a math equation. As far as last year goes I think the championship game showed that they were even teams with a slight edge to Tonka. The couple times I saw BSM last year it didn't seem like BSM line matched much so I don't know how the 2nd seed hurt them. I dont know that the BSM vs EP game means much to EP, they won the conference and probably have the 1 seed locked.

I think you could argue a number of scenarios but getting stuck with an opening game v Maple Grove or Armstrong is really where seeding comes in. If you look past either team I think they could surprise any of the top 4. In some sections I think Maple Grove is a 2 seed and Armstrong a 3.

36Guy · Post by **36Guy** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 8:20 am

Nimrod wrote:I do have a dog in this fight, but if BSM does manage to beat the Lake Conference Champ twice on the road (including at the end of the season when there should be no excuses) and still ends up behind Tonka and/or Hopkins, then its time to call BS! You cannot say you are the best and then have your Champ lose twice at home to someone else with only two losses on the season and ignore that. And if rumors are true that one and/or both refused to play BSM this year, then…(insert your own thoughts here). Now that i have all the Lake Conference Dads rooting for EP, I will hang up. Good stuff! Its fun to have the last couple games mean something regardless of what happens. Lets all hope the teams that deserve to move on are the ones that do. Although i am pretty sure there is no wrong answer when it comes to 6AA so long as the girls are allowed to decide the outcome.

I too have a puppy in the fight...first, BSM is 1-1-1 against the Lake which equates to about 3-3-3 if you were in our conference. In addition you just lost at home to HM. 2 years ago you were the one seed and last year the two seed of which neither seemed to help. My idea would be to stop grandstanding about BSMs regular season record and start focusing on the post season. And if BSM does win it...I will be standing in the lobby to congratulate every one of them.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:13 am

Here is how KRACH has 6AA ranked as of today:

1 Hopkins................... 21-3-0 991.815 AA 6
2 Benilde-St. Margaret's 19-2-1 759.417 AA 6
3 Minnetonka ............. 16-4-2 716.961 AA 6
6 Wayzata ..................17-6-1 423.641 AA 6
17 Maple Grove............ 15-5-2 131.060 AA 6
25 Armstrong/Cooper.... 13-8-2 59.419 AA 6
84 North Metro.............. 2-20-0 2.076 AA 6
108 St. Louis Park.......... 3-18-1 0.310 AA 6

I'm not sure when the coaches vote on the seeds, but here are the remaining games that could influence the final order:

Thursday: BSM @ Eden Prairie; Hopkins @ Maple Grove; Centennial @ Minnetonka
Friday: BSM @ Irondale
Saturday: Blake @ Minnetonka, Armstrong/Cooper @ Maple Grove

The January 23rd game between Maple Grove and BSM that was "postponed" does not appear to have been rescheduled, so apparently its status should now be changed to "cancelled".

allhoc11 · Post by **allhoc11** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 9:26 am

royals dad wrote:
Nimrod wrote:I do have a dog in this fight, but if BSM does manage to beat the Lake Conference Champ twice on the road (including at the end of the season when there should be no excuses) and still ends up behind Tonka and/or Hopkins, then its time to call BS! You cannot say you are the best and then have your Champ lose twice at home to someone else with only two losses on the season and ignore that. And if rumors are true that one and/or both refused to play BSM this year, then…(insert your own thoughts here). Now that i have all the Lake Conference Dads rooting for EP, I will hang up. Good stuff! Its fun to have the last couple games mean something regardless of what happens. Lets all hope the teams that deserve to move on are the ones that do. Although i am pretty sure there is no wrong answer when it comes to 6AA so long as the girls are allowed to decide the outcome.
Going to OT with MV and TG in the last few weeks might hurt BSM a bit remember this is subjective and not a math equation. As far as last year goes I think the championship game showed that they were even teams with a slight edge to Tonka. The couple times I saw BSM last year it didn't seem like BSM line matched much so I don't know how the 2nd seed hurt them. I dont know that the BSM vs EP game means much to EP, they won the conference and probably have the 1 seed locked.

I think you could argue a number of scenarios but getting stuck with an opening game v Maple Grove or Armstrong is really where seeding comes in. If you look past either team I think they could surprise any of the top 4. In some sections I think Maple Grove is a 2 seed and Armstrong a 3.

Agreeing with Royals Dad too much lately, good points and if you look at the two ranking systems (Krach & QRF) MG would be the #1 seed in section 3, both MG and AC would be the #1 seed in sections 7 & 8 if either of them were in that section.

I don't want to start a whole the Metro thinks it the only place hockey is played debate again. Strictly speaking as a fan of the game, future parent of a HS player (few years away yet), and the long term development of the sport that is still in it's developing years it seems a shame that so many good teams are in one section. While that section tourney will be great, I for one would like to see 1 or more of those games played on a bigger stage, for future generations of the game to see. I'll get off my soap box now and go shovel some snow.

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:56 am

Well the girls will decide it on the ice regardless of the seeding. To 36's point, BSM was the #1 seed two years ago and #2 last year and it didn't matter. Maybe in retrospect, they should have been #2 two years ago and #1 last year, but again it wouldn't have mattered.

I'm not quite sure where these conspiracy theories originate. And Tonka has always played BSM multiple times in previous years, so I don't know where those rumors started, but it does make for fun conversation for some people. I would have thought that the unprecedented level of play in 6AA this season would have turned a few of the 6AA and Lake Conference haters at least neutral, if not full-fledged lovers. Oh well.

In any event, I wouldn't see how Hopkins could be seeded below Tonka, since Hopkins defeated Tonka twice and finished above them in the Lake. Hopkins lost two of its last three games and Tonka lost its last two. BSM lost its last game and struggled in the prior two. None of these teams played each other, but BSM lost to presumably #4 seeded Wayzata.

In polls, looking at the latest LPH, KRACH, and LSQ, Hopkins is generally higher than BSM and Tonka. BSM is ahead of Tonka in two polls and behind in one. SOS, Tonka is tops, followed by Hop and BSM. BSM has two losses and Hopkins three, so almost equal, but Tonka with four losses.

So, based on current data, I'd say Hopkins, BSM, and Tonka in that order. However, still some games to be played and a loss by any one of these teams could be damaging. Also, if Hopkins injury/illness situation is true, will voters nick Hopkins for that? Will any voters look at prior post-season history? I would argue that they probably should not do so, but if they do, then Tonka has the clear edge as perhaps an intangible. How much will subjectivity duel with math (and even the math isn't perfectly obvious)?

Will there be any politicking involved that might influence the final outcome? Oh, how could anyone even ask such a question.

So, big advantage to #1 seed with an easy game, a fairly tough game, and then a very tough game. Some advantage to #2 seed with an easy game, a very tough game, and a very tough game. A tough road for #3 seed with a fairly tough game, a very tough game, and a very tough game. Whatever happens, the team that survives will have earned it and it will be fun to watch.

blondegirlsdad · Post by **blondegirlsdad** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:05 am

I have a dog in the fight, but will wait til the week ends before sic'ing him on anyone.

I'd also like to point out that I think St. Louis Park stayed in Class A and there are only 7 teams in the district. At least that's what this

http://www.mshsl.org/mshsl/upload/MSHSL ... dtable.doc

would indicate - Item 1, subpoint f.

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:12 am

If that's true, BGD, then it makes the #1 seed's first game even easier!

RalphCox · Post by **RalphCox** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:13 pm

[quote="sinbin"] So, big advantage to #1 seed with an easy game, a fairly tough game, and then a very tough game. Some advantage to #2 seed with an easy game, a very tough game, and a very tough game. A tough road for #3 seed with a fairly tough game, a very tough game, and a very tough game. Whatever happens, the team that survives will have earned it and it will be fun to watch.[/quote]

Sinbin, I would say that whoever plays the winner of Wayzata and Maple Grove will have a lot more than a "fairly tough game". Either team IMO can knock off whoever they play.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 1:06 pm

sinbin wrote:In any event, I wouldn't see how Hopkins could be seeded below Tonka, since Hopkins defeated Tonka twice and finished above them in the Lake. Hopkins lost two of its last three games and Tonka lost its last two. BSM lost its last game and struggled in the prior two. None of these teams played each other, but BSM lost to presumably #4 seeded Wayzata.

Great analysis, sinbin, but just one minor correction: BSM and Wayzata tied in the one game they played one another on November 21st. BSM's only two losses were to Edina on November 30th and Hill-Murray this past Saturday.

sinbin · Post by **sinbin** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 5:53 pm

Thanks for keeping me honest, MHF. I should know better than to rely on memory or to try to get one past you.

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 10:58 pm

BSM over EP; Centennial over Tonka and Maple Grove over Hopkins. Wild night in 6AA. The plot thickens!

Nimrod · Post by **Nimrod** » Thu Jan 30, 2014 11:47 pm

I noticed Hopkin's top D got a goal tonight so she is definitely back. Good for her; that would have been tough to sit out the rest of the season. My daughter lost several months to mono a couple years back so i was feeling her pain. Wins or losses aside, thats a win for her and her team. Just hope the doctors got it right as the issue with that is an enlarged spleen that could be life threatening if you simply stumble and fall down. Hockey is not that important.

MNHockeyFan · Post by **MNHockeyFan** » Fri Jan 31, 2014 12:14 am

Nimrod wrote:BSM over EP; Centennial over Tonka and Maple Grove over Hopkins. Wild night in 6AA. The plot thickens!

No kidding!

Thursday night results:
BSM 4, EP 2
Centennial 1, Tonka 0
Hopkins 2, Maple Grove 3 (OT)

Going into tonight, I would have guessed:
1. Hopkins
2. Minnetonka (hanging onto No. 2, barely)
3. BSM (almost No. 2)
4. Wayzata (solid No. 4)
5. Maple Grove
6. Armstrong/Cooper
7. North Metro

After tonight, I would guess:

1. BSM
2. Hopkins
3. Wayzata ?
3. Minnetonka ?
3. Maple Grove ?
6. Armstrong/Cooper
7. North Metro

BSM needs to beat Irondale on Friday to be assured of No. 1. If they don't, I would think Hopkins will retain the No. 1 seed, despite losing to Maple Grove tonight. Meanwhile, the order of Nos. 3-5 is hard to predict. Thoughts?