Class A Rankings 2-9-14

[HShockeywatcher]

Some minor changes this week. I have moved Breck up, but it's really up to your personal opinion where they should be. With their trouncing of EGF on record, a #1 ranking would be hard to argue with. Thief River Falls an Denfeld are right on the outside of the "top teams." They have a couple recent quality wins, but not much more to show for.

Feedback and input are always appreciated. Enjoy!

1. East Grand Forks (21-2-1)
The Green Wave are the solid #1 Class A team, top seed in their section and top seed at state if they make it out of the section. They have one game left in the regular season; a home game against a Prowler team they beat by 1 goal two weeks ago.
This week: Tues vs Thief River Falls

2. Hermantown (18-4-1)
The Hawks were 1-1-1 this week and moved up a spot. They are the favorite to win the section and will likely get a top 2 seed at state if they make it, but they’ve played some close games as of late. Can they finish the regular season with on a 3 game winning streak?
This week: Tues vs Superior, Fri vs Hibbing

3. Breck (17-5-1)
There could be a solid case to be made for the Mustangs to be ranked anywhere from #1 to #7 at the moment. The first game with Blake was a close one; can they go undefeated in the conference again? In the deepest section in Class A, it will be interesting to see if Breck will be challenged in section play at all.
This week: Tues vs Minnehaha Academy, Sat @ Blake

4. Warroad (19-4-1)
The Warriors lost a close one on the road with section rival Thief River Falls. Will their body of work be enough for them to keep the 2 seed in section 8A?
This week: Tues @ Lake of the Woods

5. Cathedral (16-6)
With their win over Apollo, the Crusaders have sealed the deal for the top seed in section 6A. Since losing 6 of 7 including 4 in a row to the 4 teams ahead of them, the Crusaders have won 7 in a row. They have 3 games this week that likely won’t be easy. Can they make it 10 in a row to end the regular season?
This week: Tues @ Orono, Thurs vs Delano, Sat @ Duluth Marshall

6. Duluth Marshall (14-8-1)
The Hilltoppers have been up and down this season. Their road win over Totino a month ago and recent shut out over TRF keep them right where they’re at. How will they do at home against Cathedral?
This week: Tues @ Greenway, Sat vs Cathedral

7. Totino-Grace (12-8-1)
The Eagles rebound from their loss to Hermantown with a win over Benilde. They will end their week with two wins, but how will they do on the road with Wayzata?
This week: Tues @ Wayzata, Thurs vs Robbinsdale Cooper, Sat @ Lourdes

8. Thief River Falls (14-9)
The Prowlers followed a win over Warroad with a shutout loss to Moorhead. The first time around they lost to EGF by 1 at home; how would two wins this week affect their seeding in section 8A?
This week: Tues @ East Grand Forks, Fri @ Bemidji

9. Denfeld (10-10-2)
After picking up a solid win over the Hilltoppers, the Hunters tie Hermantown this week. It’ll be interesting to see how they do against Grand Rapids this week.
This week: Mon @ Eveleth, Tues vs Grand Rapids, Fri vs North Shore

10. New Prague (16-4-3)
The Trojans are a hard team to get a read on. They have 1 goal losses to Cathedral, Eagan, and Farmington, a home loss to Hermantown and their only “good win” has been over Mankato West. They have two more games this week they should easily win. Can they beat the Scarlets a second time?
This week: Tues vs Red Wing, Sat @ Northfield

11. Mankato West (21-2)
The Scarlets keep winning. Four more games before they play New Prague again. This team could very easily win a first round game at state or they could not make it to state. It will be interesting to see what happens.
This week: Tues vs Albert Lea, Thurs vs Rochester Century

12. Luverne (23-0-1)
The Cardinals continue to win. They likely won’t be seeded, but it’ll be great to see them at the X. They have 7 skaters with more than 25 points and only 2 are seniors; we’ll likely be seeing them again next year.
This week: Fri @ Providence Academy

13. Kennedy (11-10-1)
The Eagles have won 6 in a row now. With two games they will likely win this week, how will they do against Burnsville on Tuesday?
This week: Tues vs Burnsville, Wed @ Champlin Park, Sat @ Minneapolis

14. Blake (13-9)
The Bears has won 6 in a row allowing 3 goals in the process. Despite their early losses to section opponents, it would not be surprising to see them go far in section play. They lost by 2 to Breck the first time around; can they pick up a win at home on Saturday?
This week: Tues vs Minneapolis, Thurs vs Lourdes, Sat vs Breck

15. Virginia (16-7-1)
The Blue Devils have one more game this season, likely a win, this week. Likely not the top seed, they will either be the 3rd or 4th seed in the section. How much will the early shutout win over Denfeld matter?
This week: Tues @ Hibbing


Teams to watch:

Alexandria (14-5-3)
This week: Tues @ St Cloud Tech, Thurs @ Fergus Falls, Fri vs Willmar

Chisago Lakes Area (17-7)
This week: Thurs vs Cambridge-Isanti

Mahtomedi (13-10)
This week: Tues vs North St Paul, Thurs @ South St Paul

Orono (15-7)
This week: Tues vs Cathedral, Fri @ Mound-Westonka

St Paul Academy (15-7)
This week: Tues vs St Paul Como Park, Thurs @ Minneapolis

[MrGoalieBoy]

I'm really hoping that Luverne can make it out of their section, a lot of talk about this team on here. I have been to a couple of their games. I know they probably wouldn't compete well with the big dogs like Hermantown, Breck, or EGF, etc. but their goalie is capable of maybe keeping them close like a 4 goal game maybe even less. Would be cool to see this team make it to the X, seems like a lot of people are pulling for them.

[notTONIGHT]

wouldnt this be a good week for the Section seedings prediction hockey watcher? Just for fun?

[sterfry9]

I know they probably wouldn't compete well with the big dogs like Hermantown, Breck, or EGF, etc. but their goalie is capable of maybe keeping them close like a 4 goal game maybe even less. Would be cool to see this team make it to the X

is this the general expectations or general thought of what you think would be a respectable showing for luverne?

[MrGoalieBoy]

I know they probably wouldn't compete well with the big dogs like Hermantown, Breck, or EGF, etc. but their goalie is capable of maybe keeping them close like a 4 goal game maybe even less. Would be cool to see this team make it to the X

is this the general expectations or general thought of what you think would be a respectable showing for luverne?

I was thinking as a respectable showing for Luverne. But who knows, maybe they will compete well! I just think they would have the best showing from 3A..

[HShockeywatcher]

I haven't posted them the last couple weeks because not much has changed in the last couple weeks within sections.
2A is a huge mess, Breck being #1 is really all that is for sure. I doubt Blake will get the 2 seed, but beyond that anything can happen. Teams like Chaska and Kennedy along with St Louis Park's early shut outs of Delano and Orono are hard to weigh.

wouldnt this be a good week for the Section seedings prediction hockey watcher? Just for fun?

Section Rankings
1A
#1 New Prague
#2 Mankato West

2A
#1 Breck
#2 Kennedy
#3 Delano
#4 Orono
#5 Chaska
#6 St Louis Park
#7 Blake

3A
#1 Luverne
#2 Willmar
#3 New Ulm
#4 Hutchinson

4A
#1 Totino-Grace
#2 St Paul Academy
#3 Mahtomedi

5A
#1 Chisago Lakes
#2 Spring Lake Park
#3 Princeton

6A
#1 Cathedral
#2 Alexandria
#3 Apollo
#4 Sartell-St Stephen
#5 Sauk Rapids-Rice

7A
#1 Hermantown
#2 Denfeld
#3 Duluth Marshall
#4 Virginia
#5 Hibbing

8A
#1 East Grand Forks
#2 Thief River Falls
#3 Warroad


If the top seeds all made it to state:
#1 Hermantown
#2 Breck
#3 East Grand Forks
#4 Cathedral
#5 Totino-Grace
New Prague
Luverne
Chisago Lakes

[ted2you]

I agree with your section seeding; but if all the #1's won:

State seeding most likely
1. EGF
2. Hermantown
3. Breck
4. Cathedral
5. Totino-Grace

Quite possible
1. Hermantown
2. Breck
3. Warroad or TRF
4. Cathedral
5. Totino Grace

also possible:
1. Breck
2. Warroad
3. Marshall or Denfield (Cathedral could slide here if Denfield or TRF wins)
4. Cathedral
5. Totino-Grace

Personally I think it should be
1. EGF
2. Breck
3. Hermantown
4. Totino Grace
5. Cathedral

[notTONIGHT]

Are seedings at state determined by the 8 coaches that make it to the tournament?

[karl(east)]

Are seedings at state determined by the 8 coaches that make it to the tournament?

Yes.

It's also worth noting that LPH and the computers have Mankato West and New Prague teams ahead of Cathedral, and ahead of/mixed in with the top two 4A teams. I think both orders are defensible, so the 1A champ (assuming it's one of the top two) should be in the mix for the 4/5 seed as well.

As in AA, it looks like there's only one section out of the running for a seed (5A). I don't think Luverne should get one unless there are a lot of upsets, but there's at least some chance the coaches will reward an undefeated season. I don't see it happening, but stranger things have happened.

[ted2you]

While I know you are projecting what coaches would decide, I do realize the Breck-EGF game happened, clearly (not by an overwhelming degree) EGF has distanced themselves from the pack and appear to have gotten stronger as the season progressed and should be the #1 seed.

But your analysis is outstanding and I missed New Prague or Mankato West. I also would like to see Luverne make it and get their chance to play at the X. Its in their hands. But no, I wouldnt seed them.

[notTONIGHT]

An undefeated Luverne team should earn a seed above Mankato West.

West is probably a better team, Through the youth ranks Mankato almost always beat this group. VERY close games, usually one or 2 point differences.

West doesnt have any signature wins, and has losses.

Im certain the prevailing opinion is that west is a better team, but an undefeated season is exceptionally difficult. It should be rewarded.

Luverne's win vs Kennedy is becoming more and more signature as this season progressed.

I agree it probably wont happen, JMO

[GopherPuck15]

An undefeated Luverne team should earn a seed above Mankato West.

West is probably a better team, Through the youth ranks Mankato almost always beat this group. VERY close games, usually one or 2 point differences.

West doesnt have any signature wins, and has losses.

Im certain the prevailing opinion is that west is a better team, but an undefeated season is exceptionally difficult. It should be rewarded.

Luverne's win vs Kennedy is becoming more and more signature as this season progressed.

I agree it probably wont happen, JMO

If West gets to the State Tournament, they'll likely have a "signature win" beating New Prague.

So you're admitting that West is better than Luverne, but the coaches should just give a seed to Luverne just to do it? This makes a lot of sense.

[OU812]

Thanks HSHW for all the work. Has been fun reading your reports all season.


Two longtime, basic questions about section seedings that we've heard are:

1) Are we asking how strong a team has been all season, or how strong a team will be at the end of the season, when sections start? Or both?

2) Is it more important how a team plays at it's best (signature wins or playing high level competition close), or is it equally important how bad they play at their worst (bad showings)?

The computer rankings at: http://myhockeyrankings.com/rank.php?y=2013&a=4&v=703 and http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm simply total up the season's performance, with no extra weight given to the more recent results for a team. When the regular season is over, seems like coaches might be asking teams "what have you done for me lately?" - which makes sense considering the regular season results can be skewed for various reasons, like injury, line shuffling, hot (or cold) goalie streaks, etc.



No, as usual, I don't know the right answer; I do know it is going to be a blast watching sections and state. That much, I'm sure of!

[GopherPuck15]

Thanks HSHW for all the work. Has been fun reading your reports all season.


Two longtime, basic questions about section seedings that we've heard are:

1) Are we asking how strong a team has been all season, or how strong a team will be at the end of the season, when sections start? Or both?

2) Is it more important how a team plays at it's best (signature wins or playing high level competition close), or is it equally important how bad they play at their worst (bad showings)?

The computer rankings at: http://myhockeyrankings.com/rank.php?y=2013&a=4&v=703 and http://www.ushsho.com/mnrank.htm simply total up the season's performance, with no extra weight given to the more recent results for a team. When the regular season is over, seems like coaches might be asking teams "what have you done for me lately?" - which makes sense considering the regular season results can be skewed for various reasons, like injury, line shuffling, hot (or cold) goalie streaks, etc.


No, I don't know the right answer; I do know it should be a blast watching sections and state. That much, I'm sure of!

This is an interesting post. Part of why seeding 7A should be crazy.

[HShockeywatcher]

I have a hard time believing New Prague would be seeded higher than a Cathedral team who beat them. West maybe though. If Totino loses, though, then it's not out of the question.
While I think EGF should be the top seed, I think it's hard to ignore the their loss to Breck. And I don't think Breck should be the top seed. But anything can happen.
(This is all assuming these teams make it to state)

From my understanding PageStat2 puts less weight on the games played earlier in the season. Not sure what that looks like, but pretty sure it does.

My opinion is that the results of games with section opponents should matter whether they are played in November or February...but there should be more weight given to more recently played games.
Basically, imo, what's the point of playing the game if the result doesn't matter?

I think the lows matter just as much as the highs. But in most cases how high or how low is generally irrelevant.

What is "so crazy" about 7A? I think the top 5 are pretty cut and dry.
2A is the hardest to see imo.

[GopherPuck15]

I have a hard time believing New Prague would be seeded higher than a Cathedral team who beat them. West maybe though. If Totino loses, though, then it's not out of the question.
While I think EGF should be the top seed, I think it's hard to ignore the their loss to Breck. And I don't think Breck should be the top seed. But anything can happen.
(This is all assuming these teams make it to state)

From my understanding PageStat2 puts less weight on the games played earlier in the season. Not sure what that looks like, but pretty sure it does.

My opinion is that the results of games with section opponents should matter whether they are played in November or February...but there should be more weight given to more recently played games.
Basically, imo, what's the point of playing the game if the result doesn't matter?

I think the lows matter just as much as the highs. But in most cases how high or how low is generally irrelevant.

What is "so crazy" about 7A? I think the top 5 are pretty cut and dry.
2A is the hardest to see imo.

7A
#1 Hermantown
#2 Denfeld
#3 Duluth Marshall
#4 Virginia
#5 Hibbing

I was referring more or less to Denfeld's recent success and lack of a good overall resume, but recent success. Then you look at Virginia getting beat handily by Marshall, but beating Denfeld early on. Just interesting to see how things will play out when the coaches decide.

I do agree that 2A is very congested, and that would be an interesting room to be a fly on the wall in.

[HShockeywatcher]

7A
#1 Hermantown
#2 Denfeld
#3 Duluth Marshall
#4 Virginia
#5 Hibbing

I was referring more or less to Denfeld's recent success and lack of a good overall resume, but recent success. Then you look at Virginia getting beat handily by Marshall, but beating Denfeld early on. Just interesting to see how things will play out when the coaches decide.

I do agree that 2A is very congested, and that would be an interesting room to be a fly on the wall in.

This is exactly how I think it should be (assuming Hermantown beats Hibbing). The early shut out is nice for Virginia, but Denfeld has lost in OT and tied the #1 as well as beat a team who just shut out Virgina. The game still happened, but it was early in the season and their recent games simply put them behind someone they beat. It happens.

[flash4000]

I don't think there is any way the coaches would seed NP or MW over Cathedral. Cathedral beat NP at NP early in the year. Cathedral will also get the edge for having played some of the top teams in A. Even though they weren't close to beating any of them.

Are seedings at state determined by the 8 coaches that make it to the tournament?

Yes.

It's also worth noting that LPH and the computers have Mankato West and New Prague teams ahead of Cathedral, and ahead of/mixed in with the top two 4A teams. I think both orders are defensible, so the 1A champ (assuming it's one of the top two) should be in the mix for the 4/5 seed as well.

As in AA, it looks like there's only one section out of the running for a seed (5A). I don't think Luverne should get one unless there are a lot of upsets, but there's at least some chance the coaches will reward an undefeated season. I don't see it happening, but stranger things have happened.

[PuckRanger]

7A
#1 Hermantown
#2 Denfeld
#3 Duluth Marshall
#4 Virginia
#5 Hibbing

I was referring more or less to Denfeld's recent success and lack of a good overall resume, but recent success. Then you look at Virginia getting beat handily by Marshall, but beating Denfeld early on. Just interesting to see how things will play out when the coaches decide.

I do agree that 2A is very congested, and that would be an interesting room to be a fly on the wall in.

This is exactly how I think it should be (assuming Hermantown beats Hibbing). The early shut out is nice for Virginia, but Denfeld has lost in OT and tied the #1 as well as beat a team who just shut out Virgina. The game still happened, but it was early in the season and their recent games simply put them behind someone they beat. It happens.

I don't entirely disagree with that, but just for discussion sake, lets assume the following:
Denfeld beats Eveleth
Grand Rapids beats Denfeld
Virginia beats Hibbing
Marshall beats Greenway
Hermantown beats Supeior

I think we can agree that is the probable favorites for winning all those games. All other games (including the Hermantown/Hibbing game you mentioned) happen after the seeding meeting, so they will have no bearing on seeding.

Now, let me make an argument for #2 for each Denfeld, Virginia, and Marshall. This is what will be heard at the seeding meeting. You will see that it is not as clear cut as you think. I'll do it in the order you listed them.

Duluth Denfeld (11-11-2 overall, 4-2-1 in 7A): Beat Duluth Marshall and tied Hermantown. Two section losses were in December and one was an overtime loss to Hermantown. Also beat Superior twice and Superior has defeated both Virginia and Duluth Marshall this year. Virginia never played Hermantown, which might have been another section loss for them. Virginia may have beaten Grand Rapids once, but they also lost to them once and their win over Cloquet was in overtime, which isn't that much better than a tie. Recent games should hold more weight.

Duluth Marshall (15-8-1 overall, 5-2 in 7A): Shutout Virginia 5-0. Have wins with common opponents Grand Rapids, Cloquet, and Superior. Also have quality wins outside the section over Thief River Falls, Totino-Grace, and Breck. Virginia lost to Superior, Denfeld tied Cloquet, and Denfeld lost to Grand Rapids, all teams Marshall beat. Virginia never played Hermantown, which would have probably been a Virginia loss. Denfeld only has a .500 record and has no signature wins outside section play. Overall best resume and highest ranking of the three by most accounts.

Virginia (17-7-1, 9-1-1 in 7A): Shutout Denfeld 4-0. Has wins over common opponents Cloquet and Grand Rapids... Denfeld was unable to beat either and results were on par with Duluth Marshall. Also have a better overall record and section record than both Marshall and Denfeld, and has the most wins in section play. Virginia beat the two common opponent teams that Hermantown struggled with (Grand Rapids and Denfeld). Marshall lost to Denfeld, whom Virginia shutout. Marshall also lost once to Superior. Have only lost 3 games to class A teams... all who are currently ranked in LPH's top 9. Denfeld has struggled outside section play with a losing record and only has a .500 overall record. Games in December count, that's why they record the score, and if you don't believe that, you have to discount Marshall's win over Grand Rapids, Virginia's first loss to Grand Rapids, and give Virginia credit for beating Grand Rapids within a week of Grand Rapids beating both Hermantown and Denfeld.

When you look at it on a team by team basis with those arguments, I might go with Marshall 2, Virginia 3, and Denfeld 4. But I can see the case for all of them. You also can't rule out the "private" factor in the seeding meeting. Marshall has traditionally gotten the shaft by the other coaches who are bitter from having their players poached from their programs whenever anything is in doubt. There is some new blood with all of the recent coaching changes, but I'm not sure how much that dynamic has changed.

My point is, its not clear cut at all. Denfeld, Virginia, and Marshall all have valid arguments for as high as #2 and none of them will fall below #4. The only thing that appears to be absolutely certain is #1, #5, #6, and #10 in this section. I've been tracking this section very closely for a very long time and I'm not sure its ever been this jumbled at the top since the two class split.

Perhaps this was more fitting for the 7A thread, but it was brought up here, so I thought I would address it here.

[GopherPuck15]

7A
#1 Hermantown
#2 Denfeld
#3 Duluth Marshall
#4 Virginia
#5 Hibbing

I was referring more or less to Denfeld's recent success and lack of a good overall resume, but recent success. Then you look at Virginia getting beat handily by Marshall, but beating Denfeld early on. Just interesting to see how things will play out when the coaches decide.

I do agree that 2A is very congested, and that would be an interesting room to be a fly on the wall in.

This is exactly how I think it should be (assuming Hermantown beats Hibbing). The early shut out is nice for Virginia, but Denfeld has lost in OT and tied the #1 as well as beat a team who just shut out Virgina. The game still happened, but it was early in the season and their recent games simply put them behind someone they beat. It happens.

I don't entirely disagree with that, but just for discussion sake, lets assume the following:
Denfeld beats Eveleth
Grand Rapids beats Denfeld
Virginia beats Hibbing
Marshall beats Greenway
Hermantown beats Supeior

I think we can agree that is the probable favorites for winning all those games. All other games (including the Hermantown/Hibbing game you mentioned) happen after the seeding meeting, so they will have no bearing on seeding.

Now, let me make an argument for #2 for each Denfeld, Virginia, and Marshall. This is what will be heard at the seeding meeting. You will see that it is not as clear cut as you think. I'll do it in the order you listed them.

Duluth Denfeld (11-11-2 overall, 4-2-1 in 7A): Beat Duluth Marshall and tied Hermantown. Two section losses were in December and one was an overtime loss to Hermantown. Also beat Superior twice and Superior has defeated both Virginia and Duluth Marshall this year. Virginia never played Hermantown, which might have been another section loss for them. Virginia may have beaten Grand Rapids once, but they also lost to them once and their win over Cloquet was in overtime, which isn't that much better than a tie. Recent games should hold more weight.

Duluth Marshall (15-8-1 overall, 5-2 in 7A): Shutout Virginia 5-0. Have wins with common opponents Grand Rapids, Cloquet, and Superior. Also have quality wins outside the section over Thief River Falls, Totino-Grace, and Breck. Virginia lost to Superior, Denfeld tied Cloquet, and Denfeld lost to Grand Rapids, all teams Marshall beat. Virginia never played Hermantown, which would have probably been a Virginia loss. Denfeld only has a .500 record and has no signature wins outside section play. Overall best resume and highest ranking of the three by most accounts.

Virginia (17-7-1, 9-1-1 in 7A): Shutout Denfeld 4-0. Has wins over common opponents Cloquet and Grand Rapids... Denfeld was unable to beat either and results were on par with Duluth Marshall. Also have a better overall record and section record than both Marshall and Denfeld, and has the most wins in section play. Virginia beat the two common opponent teams that Hermantown struggled with (Grand Rapids and Denfeld). Marshall lost to Denfeld, whom Virginia shutout. Marshall also lost once to Superior. Have only lost 3 games to class A teams... all who are currently ranked in LPH's top 9. Denfeld has struggled outside section play with a losing record and only has a .500 overall record. Games in December count, that's why they record the score, and if you don't believe that, you have to discount Marshall's win over Grand Rapids, Virginia's first loss to Grand Rapids, and give Virginia credit for beating Grand Rapids within a week of Grand Rapids beating both Hermantown and Denfeld.

When you look at it on a team by team basis with those arguments, I might go with Marshall 2, Virginia 3, and Denfeld 4. But I can see the case for all of them. You also can't rule out the "private" factor in the seeding meeting. Marshall has traditionally gotten the shaft by the other coaches who are bitter from having their players poached from their programs whenever anything is in doubt. There is some new blood with all of the recent coaching changes, but I'm not sure how much that dynamic has changed.

My point is, its not clear cut at all. Denfeld, Virginia, and Marshall all have valid arguments for as high as #2 and none of them will fall below #4. The only thing that appears to be absolutely certain is #1, #5, #6, and #10 in this section. I've been tracking this section very closely for a very long time and I'm not sure its ever been this jumbled at the top since the two class split.

Perhaps this was more fitting for the 7A thread, but it was brought up here, so I thought I would address it here.

This is a great post. Thanks for sharing. This is a much more in depth way of why I think OU812's post is interesting for 7A.

[GopherPuck15]

I don't think there is any way the coaches would seed NP or MW over Cathedral. Cathedral beat NP at NP early in the year. Cathedral will also get the edge for having played some of the top teams in A. Even though they weren't close to beating any of them.

Are seedings at state determined by the 8 coaches that make it to the tournament?

Yes.

It's also worth noting that LPH and the computers have Mankato West and New Prague teams ahead of Cathedral, and ahead of/mixed in with the top two 4A teams. I think both orders are defensible, so the 1A champ (assuming it's one of the top two) should be in the mix for the 4/5 seed as well.

As in AA, it looks like there's only one section out of the running for a seed (5A). I don't think Luverne should get one unless there are a lot of upsets, but there's at least some chance the coaches will reward an undefeated season. I don't see it happening, but stranger things have happened.

If it's NP, no chance they're ahead of Cathedral. I could see West getting seeded ahead because in comparable games, they will, at minimum, have beaten NP by the same margin, if not larger.

[HShockeywatcher]

I don't entirely disagree with that...

Now, let me make an argument for #2 for each Denfeld, Virginia, and Marshall. This is what will be heard at the seeding meeting. You will see that it is not as clear cut as you think. I'll do it in the order you listed them.

My point is, its not clear cut at all. Denfeld, Virginia, and Marshall all have valid arguments for as high as #2 and none of them will fall below #4. The only thing that appears to be absolutely certain is #1, #5, #6, and #10 in this section. I've been tracking this section very closely for a very long time and I'm not sure its ever been this jumbled at the top since the two class split.

Perhaps this was more fitting for the 7A thread, but it was brought up here, so I thought I would address it here.

I, too, don't disagree with you at all. I also think that section games in November matter just as much as those in February, with the caveat that if there is a snag logic should come in that the more recent one carries more weight.
Denfeld/Marshall/Virginia are in an A beat B beat C beat A circle, similar to the top 3 in 4A, so you need to look beyond those games. To me, the thing tying Denfeld to the #2 spot is their results with Hermantown. They went to OT early in the season and tied them late in the season.

It sure would be a shame if we ended up with the Hermantown/Marshall game in the semis because of private bias. If that's what the coaches think, fine, but it would be stupid for the wrong reasons.

[Shortshift]

This is why conferences need to go away... How many teams can't play teams in their section because of game limits?

The coaches are the ones who do the seeding... If they don't get a chance to see a team play the first thing they look at is W/L record... Lets say there are 2 team's with a 15-10 record's and they have not played each other... 1 of these team's started the season 15-0... The other 0-10... Which one do you give the higher seed?

I'm not sure if playing everyone in your section twice is the answer either... But there are teams that play 2 required conference games against teams not in there section which can make it hard to schedule teams from their own section... I don't remember the last time I saw a conference trophy... How big are they now days? I see a lot of section Champs or runner-ups banners in the rinks now days...

[Roy01]

This is why conferences need to go away... How many teams can't play teams in their section because of game limits?

The coaches are the ones who do the seeding... If they don't get a chance to see a team play the first thing they look at is W/L record... Lets say there are 2 team's with a 15-10 record's and they have not played each other... 1 of these team's started the season 15-0... The other 0-10... Which one do you give the higher seed?

I'm not sure if playing everyone in your section twice is the answer either... But there are teams that play 2 required conference games against teams not in there section which can make it hard to schedule teams from their own section... I don't remember the last time I saw a conference trophy... How big are they now days? I see a lot of section Champs or runner-ups banners in the rinks now days...

I don't think elimination of conferences is the solution. Some teams have the benefit of playing their section opponents due to conference scheduling.

The Big9 for example, in Class A: Austin, Albert Lea, Faribault, Mankato East, Mankato West and Winona - those six teams alone make up nearly half of Section 1A. Next year it will also include Red Wing and Northfield. Then over half the section is playing one another in the season.

On the Class AA side of the Big9: Owatonna, Rochester JM, Century, and Mayo. That, once again, is half the conference playing one another.

Conferences are subjective to region, just like sections, just there isn't any division between A and AA. Ultimately though, it provides enough between common opponent scores and, often, teams playing one another regardless. Granted, some teams may play more section games than others, but I think enough section teams play each other during the season to give a clear picture come time to seed. More often then not, the seeds come out right.

[urban iceman]

I don't think there is any way the coaches would seed NP or MW over Cathedral. Cathedral beat NP at NP early in the year. Cathedral will also get the edge for having played some of the top teams in A. Even though they weren't close to beating any of them.

Yes.

It's also worth noting that LPH and the computers have Mankato West and New Prague teams ahead of Cathedral, and ahead of/mixed in with the top two 4A teams. I think both orders are defensible, so the 1A champ (assuming it's one of the top two) should be in the mix for the 4/5 seed as well.

As in AA, it looks like there's only one section out of the running for a seed (5A). I don't think Luverne should get one unless there are a lot of upsets, but there's at least some chance the coaches will reward an undefeated season. I don't see it happening, but stranger things have happened.

If it's NP, no chance they're ahead of Cathedral. I could see West getting seeded ahead because in comparable games, they will, at minimum, have beaten NP by the same margin, if not larger.

Why wouldn't New Prague have a chance to be seeded in front of Cathedral? Looks like they (Cathedral) didn't play against a AA team all season (unless in a tourney I missed). New Prague played at least 10 games against pretty fair AA teams this year and only lost 2 games- Eagan 2-1 and Farmington 4-3. Frankly in the game against Cathedral, NP outplayed them for most of the game. Solid goaltending really saved the day for the Crusaders! The only other A loss was to Hermantown.