Here’s my take on what 7A will look like this season. My predictions are based on Hub stats, seeing teams in person last year, hearsay, and a heaping helping of speculation, so I implore anyone with actual knowledge of these teams to correct me where I have erred and provide their own thoughts on the upcoming season.
Teams are listed by predicted playoff seeding. Percentages of points and goals returning are also given.
1. Hermantown- Goliath landed in 7A last year, and the rest of the section now has the unenviable task of playing the role of David on a yearly basis. Personally, I thought last year’s Hermantown team was the weakest I’ve seen in 8 or 9 years, so the fact that they still made the Class A title game speaks to how excellent this program is. They return a whopping 65.6% of their points and an even more impressive 68.9 % of their goals. Add to this returning production four top level sophomores that should be immediate contributors and the Hawks again should be a top three single A team all year and another title game appearance is to be expected.
The Hawks will have a top line that will be among the best in A or AA, a top D pair of juniors as good as any, and a boatload of young stars and upperclass yeomen to fill out the roster. This team will have the top end talent and depth to once again plow through the regular season and make hay at the X. If their sophomores have realized their talents by spring, then another state title will be in their sights. Their only weakness seems to be in the net, but if any of the three unproven kids step up (one of which has shown solid talent through the youth ranks), then Hermantown may have enough to finally bring home another championship to the fast growing suburb of Duluth.
2. Duluth Marshall- The Hilltoppers were slapped with the painful irony of their players leaving for other schools this offseason, and the departures have put a severe dent in their chances for a third trip to St. Paul in four years. After pilfering players from Denfeld, Silver Bay, Proctor, and other scattered dots on the map the past few seasons, Marshall watched as the grass turned brown on their side of the fence this summer. Two of their top forwards have left for other Duluth schools, taking with them 18% of last year’s points and 22% of last year’s goals; losses that will be hard to compensate for.
But the cupboard is far from bare in the ludicrously expensive halls of Marshall, despite returning only 30% of points and 17% of goals from the previous season. They still bring back two of the best defensemen in northern MN, an excellent goalie, and a top line that will still score plenty against most teams. They also bring in some outstanding young talent, but that talent is so young that their impact this season is likely to be limited.
What could have been though. They would have had a dominant top line, a very good second line, defense as good as Hermantown (or possibly better), and the 2nd best goalie in the section. I still feel they will be the 2nd best team in 7A, but the line between the Toppers and Denfeld has blurred, and any hopes of taking down the Hawks will come down to their D and goalie playing at their best, and a power play that can make teams pay.
3. Duluth Denfeld-The last few years have been poetic justice for the maligned west siders, as instead of the usual exodus of talent they have watched as good players have come in from Edina, Hermantown, Cloquet, and Superior. These players-including this year’s-have been solid but not spectacular players. But with the arrival of McClure from Marshall, this trend has changed. He immediately becomes their top offensive threat and will turn the Hunters’ top line into one to be reckoned with, which is a recipe for success in Class A hockey.
Denfeld has two excellent defenseman to go along with this offense potency, and if they get good goaltending from either of their semi-experienced netminders, then getting a shot at Hermantown at Amsoil is a real possibility. This is a team that returns 42% of their points and 44% of their goals, so adding McClure and Michaud to this mix should spell success. All they need to do is get to the 7A title game, and anything can happen.
4. Hibbing-After a dismal season which saw two elite level players never step a skate on the ice due to disciplinary issues and another one leave for the sunny shores of Hermantown, Hibbing is once again on the rise. The Bluejackets do return 48% of their points and 60% of their goals, but these numbers are tempered by the fact that they really didn’t score that much at all last season. They were a team with solid defense and goaltending, but lacking in top line talent that seemed to have them in the mix every other year.
Enter the bantams. Hibbing had a top ten AA bantam team last year that will provide an instant injection of talent and skill, and the arrival of two talented brothers from the metro area will boost this team even further. Now for the bad news: the majority of this talent are sophomores and freshman. While offering tantalizing glimpses of their potential this season is likely, the reality is that teams rarely ride underclassmen to playoff glory.
Nevertheless, it will be fun to watch these kids mesh with the juniors and seniors, perhaps even surfing some emotion and momentum to a 7A title game, and from there, who knows? They will have solid defenseman (led by future Mr. Hockey candidate Scott Perunovich), an established solid goalie, and an improving offense that can hopefully learn to be opportunistic, especially on the pp. This will be a group of youngsters that will be fun to watch over the next few seasons; I’d personally like to see them go AA for the next two seasons, but that is unlikely.
5. Virginia-After exceeding everyone’s expectations last season, the Blue Devils once again appear to enter into a new season fresh out of playmakers. However, this is a mistake I have made before, thinking losses to graduation would be too much to overcome for this team. If there is one thing Virginia coach Reed Larson has shown, it is that he will absolutely get the most out of his talent.
That said, I still have a hard time seeing Virginia get above the fifth seed. Yes, they have the best goalie in all of northern MN in Lucas Murray, and they have a young star in Seitz making his debut as a freshman, but I just don’t see where the scoring will come from. Coming back from last year’s overachieving squad is a mere 23% of points and 25% of goals, and the bantam team was mediocre. Murray can win a game by himself at any time, but three in a row to get to the X? That is a tall order. The Blue Devils have some excellent teams rising through the youth ranks, so it won’t be long before they will be back challenging for state.
6. Greenway-It is great to see the improvement that the Raiders are making. Instead of fleeing for the AA comfort of nearby Grand Rapids, there are some real stars amongst the youngsters staying in the Coleraine area. Taylor Lantz is the real deal, but the question is how much help will he get? This team returns an amazing 84% of points and 71% of goal scoring from last season, but this was a team that lost a lot of games in a schedule that was not very rigorous.
Even so, this team will be improved. It seems as though some key players have been lost to injury already, which is a shame. Knocking off a Hibbing or Virginia may have given them a chance at a home playoff game in the first round, but that was a long shot to begin with. For now Greenway should be happy their program is trending in the right direction, and in two years from now this team may very well have that Class A combo of a great top line and enough defense to give them a chance at state. It would be fun to see.
7. I-Falls-last season was a nadir for the Broncos, and indications are that they will be better this season. They do bring back 59% of their points and 49% of their goals, so there is production on the roster that should be a year older and wiser now. Whether that translates into beating any of the top 3-5 teams in 7A remains to be seen. They just might surprise.
8. Eveleth Gilbert-The Golden Bears had one of their better teams in recent memory last season, yet they still have yet to climb much in the section rankings. Apparently there is talent at the youth level, so perhaps that will come to fruition at some point and vault them into contention.
For this season, they return 45% of points and 45% of their goals, so at least that something to build from.
9. North Shore-The combining of Silver Bay and Two Harbors has created a program that is much more competitive than the two schools alone, but they have yet to show signs of threatening the usual order in 7A. I know there is an elite player or two coming up in their program, but one wonders if they will stay, and if they do, will there be enough around them to make an impact? Always a fun team to pull for.
10. Ely-Sorry Wolves, but I don’t have much to say. I think it’s great your program still survives and I hope that someday you will get a class that comes through that can make some noise in the section.
Now for a couple other predictions. I think both Hermantown and Duluth Marshall will opt up to AA starting next season. I have no proof for either, but my gut tells me it is coming soon. As for Hermantown, this is a program that gets to the Class A title game every year only to lose to a top ten AA-caliber team. At some point, given their success at youth levels and soon-to-increase enrollment, Hermantown parents and fans will decide they would rather lose to a top ten AA-caliber team while actually playing in AA than to sail along crushing 99% of A competition only to be stymied once again in an excruciatingly anticlimactic state final against a team as good as what they would have faced in the AA tourney. As a Hibbing fan who has watched his team have solid success at the A level and come oh-so-close to big school glory during six years of opting up to AA, I can tell you the latter is far more satisfying.
As for the Hilltoppers, I think AA is their only play. Now that Hermantown is in 7A, the road to St. Paul is anything but open. Marshall’s main attraction was a relatively easy path to state for kids that wanted to play right away and not play JV or 3rd line for East. Now with the Hawks standing in the way, Denfeld drawing more talent, and with Randolph not too far from retirement, this is Marshall’s chance to make themselves more attractive to kids that haven’t already decided at an early age to go to Marshall. They can capitalize on the uncertainty of a new coach at East and offer the exposure of being the marquee AA team in Duluth. Or, to be really diabolical, Marshall may opt up to expedite a Hermantown opt up, and then settle back into 7A once the Hawks have made the jump.
As I said, this is speculation. Feel free to shed light on why I am totally wrong.
Looking forward to a great season and will be hoping someone upsets Hermantown, even though I will root for the Hawks if they once again make it to the X.
Section 7A Predictions
Moderators: Mitch Hawker, east hockey, karl(east)
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karl(east)
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I can't disagree with the rankings. Entertaining stuff on what should be a very interesting section this year.
I think the Hawks might be a little thinner in back than you're suggesting, but there's no doubt they're the most talented team in Class A. They deserve the favorite label. Marshall should be a sturdy upset threat; the question is whether they can develop some forward depth, or if they're just going to have to bunker down and pick their chances against the deeper Hawks.
If Denfeld is ever going to bust through, this is the year. They've been feisty and dangerous over the past couple, but come playoff time they've been a bit less polished than the top two. We'll see if the new acquisitions can get them there. With Hibbing, it's a question of how quickly the kids can grow up. Sometimes those young squads don't feel the pressure of the teams at the top and can bust through.
Unless you've heard things I haven't, I wouldn't be so sure on the opt-ups, though. I've never heard one iota of interest in opting up from Marshall, and they certainly wouldn't have any incentive to do so if Hermantown did. I'm not sure Flaherty has any ambition to go that road. It is interesting that they're starting to pull in more Hermantown bantams, though. I've said this before, but it's going to be very interesting to watch the Hawks over the next couple years. They're not small-town David anymore; they are the Goliath of Class A. That makes them a perennial title favorite, but it means they'll also have to start dealing with big program issues, like private school departures and battles for playing time. So long as Plante is at the helm, the plan seems to be to take things slowly and do things the same way they always have. We'll see if that mentality can hold things together.
I think the Hawks might be a little thinner in back than you're suggesting, but there's no doubt they're the most talented team in Class A. They deserve the favorite label. Marshall should be a sturdy upset threat; the question is whether they can develop some forward depth, or if they're just going to have to bunker down and pick their chances against the deeper Hawks.
If Denfeld is ever going to bust through, this is the year. They've been feisty and dangerous over the past couple, but come playoff time they've been a bit less polished than the top two. We'll see if the new acquisitions can get them there. With Hibbing, it's a question of how quickly the kids can grow up. Sometimes those young squads don't feel the pressure of the teams at the top and can bust through.
Unless you've heard things I haven't, I wouldn't be so sure on the opt-ups, though. I've never heard one iota of interest in opting up from Marshall, and they certainly wouldn't have any incentive to do so if Hermantown did. I'm not sure Flaherty has any ambition to go that road. It is interesting that they're starting to pull in more Hermantown bantams, though. I've said this before, but it's going to be very interesting to watch the Hawks over the next couple years. They're not small-town David anymore; they are the Goliath of Class A. That makes them a perennial title favorite, but it means they'll also have to start dealing with big program issues, like private school departures and battles for playing time. So long as Plante is at the helm, the plan seems to be to take things slowly and do things the same way they always have. We'll see if that mentality can hold things together.
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Usthockey13
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Re: Section 7A Predictions
Ive heard rumors that there is a push at Marshall to go AA soon. I agree they need to do it to attract more talent to compete. As for East Randolph isnt going anywhere, he is already retired from teaching. So I see him staying at East for a long time. Especially with the kids of his old players starting to come thru the pipeline
rainier wrote:Here’s my take on what 7A will look like this season. My predictions are based on Hub stats, seeing teams in person last year, hearsay, and a heaping helping of speculation, so I implore anyone with actual knowledge of these teams to correct me where I have erred and provide their own thoughts on the upcoming season.
Teams are listed by predicted playoff seeding. Percentages of points and goals returning are also given.
1. Hermantown- Goliath landed in 7A last year, and the rest of the section now has the unenviable task of playing the role of David on a yearly basis. Personally, I thought last year’s Hermantown team was the weakest I’ve seen in 8 or 9 years, so the fact that they still made the Class A title game speaks to how excellent this program is. They return a whopping 65.6% of their points and an even more impressive 68.9 % of their goals. Add to this returning production four top level sophomores that should be immediate contributors and the Hawks again should be a top three single A team all year and another title game appearance is to be expected.
The Hawks will have a top line that will be among the best in A or AA, a top D pair of juniors as good as any, and a boatload of young stars and upperclass yeomen to fill out the roster. This team will have the top end talent and depth to once again plow through the regular season and make hay at the X. If their sophomores have realized their talents by spring, then another state title will be in their sights. Their only weakness seems to be in the net, but if any of the three unproven kids step up (one of which has shown solid talent through the youth ranks), then Hermantown may have enough to finally bring home another championship to the fast growing suburb of Duluth.
2. Duluth Marshall- The Hilltoppers were slapped with the painful irony of their players leaving for other schools this offseason, and the departures have put a severe dent in their chances for a third trip to St. Paul in four years. After pilfering players from Denfeld, Silver Bay, Proctor, and other scattered dots on the map the past few seasons, Marshall watched as the grass turned brown on their side of the fence this summer. Two of their top forwards have left for other Duluth schools, taking with them 18% of last year’s points and 22% of last year’s goals; losses that will be hard to compensate for.
But the cupboard is far from bare in the ludicrously expensive halls of Marshall, despite returning only 30% of points and 17% of goals from the previous season. They still bring back two of the best defensemen in northern MN, an excellent goalie, and a top line that will still score plenty against most teams. They also bring in some outstanding young talent, but that talent is so young that their impact this season is likely to be limited.
What could have been though. They would have had a dominant top line, a very good second line, defense as good as Hermantown (or possibly better), and the 2nd best goalie in the section. I still feel they will be the 2nd best team in 7A, but the line between the Toppers and Denfeld has blurred, and any hopes of taking down the Hawks will come down to their D and goalie playing at their best, and a power play that can make teams pay.
3. Duluth Denfeld-The last few years have been poetic justice for the maligned west siders, as instead of the usual exodus of talent they have watched as good players have come in from Edina, Hermantown, Cloquet, and Superior. These players-including this year’s-have been solid but not spectacular players. But with the arrival of McClure from Marshall, this trend has changed. He immediately becomes their top offensive threat and will turn the Hunters’ top line into one to be reckoned with, which is a recipe for success in Class A hockey.
Denfeld has two excellent defenseman to go along with this offense potency, and if they get good goaltending from either of their semi-experienced netminders, then getting a shot at Hermantown at Amsoil is a real possibility. This is a team that returns 42% of their points and 44% of their goals, so adding McClure and Michaud to this mix should spell success. All they need to do is get to the 7A title game, and anything can happen.
4. Hibbing-After a dismal season which saw two elite level players never step a skate on the ice due to disciplinary issues and another one leave for the sunny shores of Hermantown, Hibbing is once again on the rise. The Bluejackets do return 48% of their points and 60% of their goals, but these numbers are tempered by the fact that they really didn’t score that much at all last season. They were a team with solid defense and goaltending, but lacking in top line talent that seemed to have them in the mix every other year.
Enter the bantams. Hibbing had a top ten AA bantam team last year that will provide an instant injection of talent and skill, and the arrival of two talented brothers from the metro area will boost this team even further. Now for the bad news: the majority of this talent are sophomores and freshman. While offering tantalizing glimpses of their potential this season is likely, the reality is that teams rarely ride underclassmen to playoff glory.
Nevertheless, it will be fun to watch these kids mesh with the juniors and seniors, perhaps even surfing some emotion and momentum to a 7A title game, and from there, who knows? They will have solid defenseman (led by future Mr. Hockey candidate Scott Perunovich), an established solid goalie, and an improving offense that can hopefully learn to be opportunistic, especially on the pp. This will be a group of youngsters that will be fun to watch over the next few seasons; I’d personally like to see them go AA for the next two seasons, but that is unlikely.
5. Virginia-After exceeding everyone’s expectations last season, the Blue Devils once again appear to enter into a new season fresh out of playmakers. However, this is a mistake I have made before, thinking losses to graduation would be too much to overcome for this team. If there is one thing Virginia coach Reed Larson has shown, it is that he will absolutely get the most out of his talent.
That said, I still have a hard time seeing Virginia get above the fifth seed. Yes, they have the best goalie in all of northern MN in Lucas Murray, and they have a young star in Seitz making his debut as a freshman, but I just don’t see where the scoring will come from. Coming back from last year’s overachieving squad is a mere 23% of points and 25% of goals, and the bantam team was mediocre. Murray can win a game by himself at any time, but three in a row to get to the X? That is a tall order. The Blue Devils have some excellent teams rising through the youth ranks, so it won’t be long before they will be back challenging for state.
6. Greenway-It is great to see the improvement that the Raiders are making. Instead of fleeing for the AA comfort of nearby Grand Rapids, there are some real stars amongst the youngsters staying in the Coleraine area. Taylor Lantz is the real deal, but the question is how much help will he get? This team returns an amazing 84% of points and 71% of goal scoring from last season, but this was a team that lost a lot of games in a schedule that was not very rigorous.
Even so, this team will be improved. It seems as though some key players have been lost to injury already, which is a shame. Knocking off a Hibbing or Virginia may have given them a chance at a home playoff game in the first round, but that was a long shot to begin with. For now Greenway should be happy their program is trending in the right direction, and in two years from now this team may very well have that Class A combo of a great top line and enough defense to give them a chance at state. It would be fun to see.
7. I-Falls-last season was a nadir for the Broncos, and indications are that they will be better this season. They do bring back 59% of their points and 49% of their goals, so there is production on the roster that should be a year older and wiser now. Whether that translates into beating any of the top 3-5 teams in 7A remains to be seen. They just might surprise.
8. Eveleth Gilbert-The Golden Bears had one of their better teams in recent memory last season, yet they still have yet to climb much in the section rankings. Apparently there is talent at the youth level, so perhaps that will come to fruition at some point and vault them into contention.
For this season, they return 45% of points and 45% of their goals, so at least that something to build from.
9. North Shore-The combining of Silver Bay and Two Harbors has created a program that is much more competitive than the two schools alone, but they have yet to show signs of threatening the usual order in 7A. I know there is an elite player or two coming up in their program, but one wonders if they will stay, and if they do, will there be enough around them to make an impact? Always a fun team to pull for.
10. Ely-Sorry Wolves, but I don’t have much to say. I think it’s great your program still survives and I hope that someday you will get a class that comes through that can make some noise in the section.
Now for a couple other predictions. I think both Hermantown and Duluth Marshall will opt up to AA starting next season. I have no proof for either, but my gut tells me it is coming soon. As for Hermantown, this is a program that gets to the Class A title game every year only to lose to a top ten AA-caliber team. At some point, given their success at youth levels and soon-to-increase enrollment, Hermantown parents and fans will decide they would rather lose to a top ten AA-caliber team while actually playing in AA than to sail along crushing 99% of A competition only to be stymied once again in an excruciatingly anticlimactic state final against a team as good as what they would have faced in the AA tourney. As a Hibbing fan who has watched his team have solid success at the A level and come oh-so-close to big school glory during six years of opting up to AA, I can tell you the latter is far more satisfying.
As for the Hilltoppers, I think AA is their only play. Now that Hermantown is in 7A, the road to St. Paul is anything but open. Marshall’s main attraction was a relatively easy path to state for kids that wanted to play right away and not play JV or 3rd line for East. Now with the Hawks standing in the way, Denfeld drawing more talent, and with Randolph not too far from retirement, this is Marshall’s chance to make themselves more attractive to kids that haven’t already decided at an early age to go to Marshall. They can capitalize on the uncertainty of a new coach at East and offer the exposure of being the marquee AA team in Duluth. Or, to be really diabolical, Marshall may opt up to expedite a Hermantown opt up, and then settle back into 7A once the Hawks have made the jump.
As I said, this is speculation. Feel free to shed light on why I am totally wrong.
Looking forward to a great season and will be hoping someone upsets Hermantown, even though I will root for the Hawks if they once again make it to the X.
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greenway1969
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Great analysis. Interested in seeing how Denfeld performs. Would like to see them surprise one of the big two in the sectionals. They play Greenway in Coleraine on December 2 so I'll get a chance to see them. Hoping that Greenway can get a win against Virginia or Hibbing this year. But realistically see them as battling Eveleth, Falls and North Shore for the #6 seed.
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TheHockeyDJ
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If things go according to the predictions here you'll have on Semi-final Saturday at Amsoil Arena, 6:00 PM Hermantown vs Hibbing, 8:30 PM Denfeld vs Marshall. I have a feeling with 7AA being at Noon/2:30 at Amsoil there should be some very large crowds. With these games all being at Amsoil I anticipate a lot of fans myself included going to both sessions. I'm cheering for Denfeld since they have a kid from Anchorage who was in my weight lifting classes at Ironwill Athletics.
YouTube.com/BarbellMedicine
Any thoughts if your Hawks may make the AA jump?pekyman wrote:Great job, thank you!
As a Hibbing fan of course I wouldn't shed a tear if they did.
As I said, I have to root for the underdogs in 7A vs. your team, but I will be rooting like heck for them if they do make it. Could be a great matchup or two with EGF and Breck looking so strong.
Good luck to your squad!
As my player is long gone from the team, I don’t hear much chatter.rainier wrote:Any thoughts if your Hawks may make the AA jump?pekyman wrote:Great job, thank you!
As a Hibbing fan of course I wouldn't shed a tear if they did.
As I said, I have to root for the underdogs in 7A vs. your team, but I will be rooting like heck for them if they do make it. Could be a great matchup or two with EGF and Breck looking so strong.
Good luck to your squad!
I personally think the HS/youth program needs another sheet of indoor ice
before they should even think about making the jump into the big school league.
Good luck to Hibbing also, they always play Hermantown tough!
I appreciate the vote of confidence, gents. I'd love to do the A rankings weekly, but work is insane right now and time is hard to come by. Plus, I honestly don't know enough about the rest of A which means my rankings would be no better than LPH's "blind squirrel" method of ranking Class A.pekyman wrote:Even if you don't, I second that.BigTen wrote:Great read Rainier!
If you know enough about the rest of class A as you do section 7A I personally wish you would do the rankings...
However, give me a few weeks of seeing results and I can cobble together the occasional rankings (bi-weekly?). I'll do what I can to satisfy the forum's insatiable appetite for Class A analysis!
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TheInsider
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Re: Section 7A Predictions
Hate to be that guy, but DM returns 47% of their points and 39% of their goals. Good work, though. You were spot on for all the other teamsrainier wrote:Here’s my take on what 7A will look like this season. My predictions are based on Hub stats, seeing teams in person last year, hearsay, and a heaping helping of speculation, so I implore anyone with actual knowledge of these teams to correct me where I have erred and provide their own thoughts on the upcoming season.
Teams are listed by predicted playoff seeding. Percentages of points and goals returning are also given.
1. Hermantown- Goliath landed in 7A last year, and the rest of the section now has the unenviable task of playing the role of David on a yearly basis. Personally, I thought last year’s Hermantown team was the weakest I’ve seen in 8 or 9 years, so the fact that they still made the Class A title game speaks to how excellent this program is. They return a whopping 65.6% of their points and an even more impressive 68.9 % of their goals. Add to this returning production four top level sophomores that should be immediate contributors and the Hawks again should be a top three single A team all year and another title game appearance is to be expected.
The Hawks will have a top line that will be among the best in A or AA, a top D pair of juniors as good as any, and a boatload of young stars and upperclass yeomen to fill out the roster. This team will have the top end talent and depth to once again plow through the regular season and make hay at the X. If their sophomores have realized their talents by spring, then another state title will be in their sights. Their only weakness seems to be in the net, but if any of the three unproven kids step up (one of which has shown solid talent through the youth ranks), then Hermantown may have enough to finally bring home another championship to the fast growing suburb of Duluth.
2. Duluth Marshall- The Hilltoppers were slapped with the painful irony of their players leaving for other schools this offseason, and the departures have put a severe dent in their chances for a third trip to St. Paul in four years. After pilfering players from Denfeld, Silver Bay, Proctor, and other scattered dots on the map the past few seasons, Marshall watched as the grass turned brown on their side of the fence this summer. Two of their top forwards have left for other Duluth schools, taking with them 18% of last year’s points and 22% of last year’s goals; losses that will be hard to compensate for.
But the cupboard is far from bare in the ludicrously expensive halls of Marshall, despite returning only 30% of points and 17% of goals from the previous season. They still bring back two of the best defensemen in northern MN, an excellent goalie, and a top line that will still score plenty against most teams. They also bring in some outstanding young talent, but that talent is so young that their impact this season is likely to be limited.
What could have been though. They would have had a dominant top line, a very good second line, defense as good as Hermantown (or possibly better), and the 2nd best goalie in the section. I still feel they will be the 2nd best team in 7A, but the line between the Toppers and Denfeld has blurred, and any hopes of taking down the Hawks will come down to their D and goalie playing at their best, and a power play that can make teams pay.
3. Duluth Denfeld-The last few years have been poetic justice for the maligned west siders, as instead of the usual exodus of talent they have watched as good players have come in from Edina, Hermantown, Cloquet, and Superior. These players-including this year’s-have been solid but not spectacular players. But with the arrival of McClure from Marshall, this trend has changed. He immediately becomes their top offensive threat and will turn the Hunters’ top line into one to be reckoned with, which is a recipe for success in Class A hockey.
Denfeld has two excellent defenseman to go along with this offense potency, and if they get good goaltending from either of their semi-experienced netminders, then getting a shot at Hermantown at Amsoil is a real possibility. This is a team that returns 42% of their points and 44% of their goals, so adding McClure and Michaud to this mix should spell success. All they need to do is get to the 7A title game, and anything can happen.
4. Hibbing-After a dismal season which saw two elite level players never step a skate on the ice due to disciplinary issues and another one leave for the sunny shores of Hermantown, Hibbing is once again on the rise. The Bluejackets do return 48% of their points and 60% of their goals, but these numbers are tempered by the fact that they really didn’t score that much at all last season. They were a team with solid defense and goaltending, but lacking in top line talent that seemed to have them in the mix every other year.
Enter the bantams. Hibbing had a top ten AA bantam team last year that will provide an instant injection of talent and skill, and the arrival of two talented brothers from the metro area will boost this team even further. Now for the bad news: the majority of this talent are sophomores and freshman. While offering tantalizing glimpses of their potential this season is likely, the reality is that teams rarely ride underclassmen to playoff glory.
Nevertheless, it will be fun to watch these kids mesh with the juniors and seniors, perhaps even surfing some emotion and momentum to a 7A title game, and from there, who knows? They will have solid defenseman (led by future Mr. Hockey candidate Scott Perunovich), an established solid goalie, and an improving offense that can hopefully learn to be opportunistic, especially on the pp. This will be a group of youngsters that will be fun to watch over the next few seasons; I’d personally like to see them go AA for the next two seasons, but that is unlikely.
5. Virginia-After exceeding everyone’s expectations last season, the Blue Devils once again appear to enter into a new season fresh out of playmakers. However, this is a mistake I have made before, thinking losses to graduation would be too much to overcome for this team. If there is one thing Virginia coach Reed Larson has shown, it is that he will absolutely get the most out of his talent.
That said, I still have a hard time seeing Virginia get above the fifth seed. Yes, they have the best goalie in all of northern MN in Lucas Murray, and they have a young star in Seitz making his debut as a freshman, but I just don’t see where the scoring will come from. Coming back from last year’s overachieving squad is a mere 23% of points and 25% of goals, and the bantam team was mediocre. Murray can win a game by himself at any time, but three in a row to get to the X? That is a tall order. The Blue Devils have some excellent teams rising through the youth ranks, so it won’t be long before they will be back challenging for state.
6. Greenway-It is great to see the improvement that the Raiders are making. Instead of fleeing for the AA comfort of nearby Grand Rapids, there are some real stars amongst the youngsters staying in the Coleraine area. Taylor Lantz is the real deal, but the question is how much help will he get? This team returns an amazing 84% of points and 71% of goal scoring from last season, but this was a team that lost a lot of games in a schedule that was not very rigorous.
Even so, this team will be improved. It seems as though some key players have been lost to injury already, which is a shame. Knocking off a Hibbing or Virginia may have given them a chance at a home playoff game in the first round, but that was a long shot to begin with. For now Greenway should be happy their program is trending in the right direction, and in two years from now this team may very well have that Class A combo of a great top line and enough defense to give them a chance at state. It would be fun to see.
7. I-Falls-last season was a nadir for the Broncos, and indications are that they will be better this season. They do bring back 59% of their points and 49% of their goals, so there is production on the roster that should be a year older and wiser now. Whether that translates into beating any of the top 3-5 teams in 7A remains to be seen. They just might surprise.
8. Eveleth Gilbert-The Golden Bears had one of their better teams in recent memory last season, yet they still have yet to climb much in the section rankings. Apparently there is talent at the youth level, so perhaps that will come to fruition at some point and vault them into contention.
For this season, they return 45% of points and 45% of their goals, so at least that something to build from.
9. North Shore-The combining of Silver Bay and Two Harbors has created a program that is much more competitive than the two schools alone, but they have yet to show signs of threatening the usual order in 7A. I know there is an elite player or two coming up in their program, but one wonders if they will stay, and if they do, will there be enough around them to make an impact? Always a fun team to pull for.
10. Ely-Sorry Wolves, but I don’t have much to say. I think it’s great your program still survives and I hope that someday you will get a class that comes through that can make some noise in the section.
Now for a couple other predictions. I think both Hermantown and Duluth Marshall will opt up to AA starting next season. I have no proof for either, but my gut tells me it is coming soon. As for Hermantown, this is a program that gets to the Class A title game every year only to lose to a top ten AA-caliber team. At some point, given their success at youth levels and soon-to-increase enrollment, Hermantown parents and fans will decide they would rather lose to a top ten AA-caliber team while actually playing in AA than to sail along crushing 99% of A competition only to be stymied once again in an excruciatingly anticlimactic state final against a team as good as what they would have faced in the AA tourney. As a Hibbing fan who has watched his team have solid success at the A level and come oh-so-close to big school glory during six years of opting up to AA, I can tell you the latter is far more satisfying.
As for the Hilltoppers, I think AA is their only play. Now that Hermantown is in 7A, the road to St. Paul is anything but open. Marshall’s main attraction was a relatively easy path to state for kids that wanted to play right away and not play JV or 3rd line for East. Now with the Hawks standing in the way, Denfeld drawing more talent, and with Randolph not too far from retirement, this is Marshall’s chance to make themselves more attractive to kids that haven’t already decided at an early age to go to Marshall. They can capitalize on the uncertainty of a new coach at East and offer the exposure of being the marquee AA team in Duluth. Or, to be really diabolical, Marshall may opt up to expedite a Hermantown opt up, and then settle back into 7A once the Hawks have made the jump.
As I said, this is speculation. Feel free to shed light on why I am totally wrong.
Looking forward to a great season and will be hoping someone upsets Hermantown, even though I will root for the Hawks if they once again make it to the X.
Re: Section 7A Predictions
I got those same numbers originally, but then I subtracted Dow and McClure's points to arrive at the final numbers.TheInsider wrote: Hate to be that guy, but DM returns 47% of their points and 39% of their goals. Good work, though. You were spot on for all the other teams
I may still have it wrong, I'm no math major...
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curtiscurve
- Posts: 330
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Since this thread seems like it is on life support, I thought I would attempt to revive it with some end of the year predictions. Here is where I see things shaking out, seeding and records, with season reviews thrown in as well.
1- Hermantown - 13-2 (4-0 in section play) currently. While I think Marshall is a nice club, I don't see them getting by the Hawks either in their last regular season meeting or in the play-offs. The Hawks should go 9-1 (only loss while on the road in White Bear) to finish the season 22-3. Could be looking at a rematch in the State Title game with EGF, but I believe this time Hermantown will come out on top.
2- Duluth Marshall - 12-1-1 (1-1) currently. With 11 games to play, the Toppers will finish strong going 10-1 to compile an impressive 22-2-1 record. Their only loss being against Hermantown. The Toppers could be the 2nd best team in class A finishing the season (including play-offs) 24-3-1 with all three losses coming to Hermantown.
3. Duluth Denfeld - 11-5 (4-1) currently. The Hunters will face a number of quality teams in their last 9 games. By going 5-4 in those last 9 will leave them at a respectable 16-9 record. If anyone is going to pull the upset and get into the finals, Denfeld is the team that can do it.
4. Hibbing-Chisholm - 9-7-1 (4-1) currently. Loaded with young talent, the Blue Jackets have had a pretty strong year. Outside of a couple of head scratches (tie Crookston and blown out by CEC and Denfeld), I think this is where most expected them to be. They have 8 games left and will go 4-4 to finish out with a 13-11-1 record.
5. Virginia/Mt. Iron-Buhl - 5-9 (3-4) currently. Lots of winnable games left for the Blue Devils to lock up the 5 seed and make up for a slow start. By getting 2 more section wins and 6 wins in their last 11 games, they will finish 11-14. They need to beat Greenway to stay in the 5 spot, and if they do, they will earn a matching up with rival Hibbing in the quarters, which would be the best possible match-up for them.
6. Greenway 8-8 (4-3) currently. The Raiders are another team with young talent. They have played some quality teams tough this year and could prove to be a tough test for Denfeld in the quarters. Looking at what is ahead, I have them going 4-5 in their last 9 to finish 12-13 and 6-6 in section play. I have them dropping the game vs Virginia, but if they pull out the win, they would move up to the 5 seed. Either way, with strong goaltending (either LaDoux will do) and if they can stay discipline, they could pull an upset and march into the semis for the first time in years.
7. Eveleth-Gilbert 7-7-2 (4-4) currently. For the Golden Bears to get the 7 seed, they will need to earn the win over North Shore, which I think they will do. Picking up section wins over North Shore and Ely along with a pair of non-section wins would bring them to a record of 11-12-2 and 6-8 in the section.
8. North Shore 7-7 (3-3) currently. With 5 section games to go, there is a possibility for the Storm to move up a spot or two, but I don't see that happening. Winning the 2 section games against Ely and I Falls would lock them in at the 8 seed and bring their record to 11-13, 5-6 in the section.
9. International Falls 3-13 (1-8 ) currently. It has been a tough year for the Broncos. With that said, they have proved that they can be competitive by beating VMIB and playing tight games with Greenway and Eveleth. They should pick up 3 more wins by the time the season ends bringing them to 6-19 overall but only 1-11 in the section.
10. Ely/Tower-Soudan - 2-10 (0-3) currently.The Timberwolves have 9 games remaining and only 1 section game. So, they will lose their last section game and will finish with a 4-17 overall record and 0-4 in the section.
I like the way this section is setting up. Could be some great quarter final games with Virginia and Hibbing squaring off and Greenway and Denfeld in a rematch of the tight game from early this year. I believe the two best Class A teams are in the section making the Finals (if they both make it there) a must see game for high school hockey fans.
1- Hermantown - 13-2 (4-0 in section play) currently. While I think Marshall is a nice club, I don't see them getting by the Hawks either in their last regular season meeting or in the play-offs. The Hawks should go 9-1 (only loss while on the road in White Bear) to finish the season 22-3. Could be looking at a rematch in the State Title game with EGF, but I believe this time Hermantown will come out on top.
2- Duluth Marshall - 12-1-1 (1-1) currently. With 11 games to play, the Toppers will finish strong going 10-1 to compile an impressive 22-2-1 record. Their only loss being against Hermantown. The Toppers could be the 2nd best team in class A finishing the season (including play-offs) 24-3-1 with all three losses coming to Hermantown.
3. Duluth Denfeld - 11-5 (4-1) currently. The Hunters will face a number of quality teams in their last 9 games. By going 5-4 in those last 9 will leave them at a respectable 16-9 record. If anyone is going to pull the upset and get into the finals, Denfeld is the team that can do it.
4. Hibbing-Chisholm - 9-7-1 (4-1) currently. Loaded with young talent, the Blue Jackets have had a pretty strong year. Outside of a couple of head scratches (tie Crookston and blown out by CEC and Denfeld), I think this is where most expected them to be. They have 8 games left and will go 4-4 to finish out with a 13-11-1 record.
5. Virginia/Mt. Iron-Buhl - 5-9 (3-4) currently. Lots of winnable games left for the Blue Devils to lock up the 5 seed and make up for a slow start. By getting 2 more section wins and 6 wins in their last 11 games, they will finish 11-14. They need to beat Greenway to stay in the 5 spot, and if they do, they will earn a matching up with rival Hibbing in the quarters, which would be the best possible match-up for them.
6. Greenway 8-8 (4-3) currently. The Raiders are another team with young talent. They have played some quality teams tough this year and could prove to be a tough test for Denfeld in the quarters. Looking at what is ahead, I have them going 4-5 in their last 9 to finish 12-13 and 6-6 in section play. I have them dropping the game vs Virginia, but if they pull out the win, they would move up to the 5 seed. Either way, with strong goaltending (either LaDoux will do) and if they can stay discipline, they could pull an upset and march into the semis for the first time in years.
7. Eveleth-Gilbert 7-7-2 (4-4) currently. For the Golden Bears to get the 7 seed, they will need to earn the win over North Shore, which I think they will do. Picking up section wins over North Shore and Ely along with a pair of non-section wins would bring them to a record of 11-12-2 and 6-8 in the section.
8. North Shore 7-7 (3-3) currently. With 5 section games to go, there is a possibility for the Storm to move up a spot or two, but I don't see that happening. Winning the 2 section games against Ely and I Falls would lock them in at the 8 seed and bring their record to 11-13, 5-6 in the section.
9. International Falls 3-13 (1-8 ) currently. It has been a tough year for the Broncos. With that said, they have proved that they can be competitive by beating VMIB and playing tight games with Greenway and Eveleth. They should pick up 3 more wins by the time the season ends bringing them to 6-19 overall but only 1-11 in the section.
10. Ely/Tower-Soudan - 2-10 (0-3) currently.The Timberwolves have 9 games remaining and only 1 section game. So, they will lose their last section game and will finish with a 4-17 overall record and 0-4 in the section.
I like the way this section is setting up. Could be some great quarter final games with Virginia and Hibbing squaring off and Greenway and Denfeld in a rematch of the tight game from early this year. I believe the two best Class A teams are in the section making the Finals (if they both make it there) a must see game for high school hockey fans.
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greenway1969
- Posts: 792
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Good summary curtiscurve. Can't disagree with anything you've said. Couldn't agree more with you on Greenway. They cut down on their penalties for a while, but last couple of games they've gone back to chippy play and undisciplined play. They spend at a minimum 1/2 a period a game short-handed. That's a recipe for a quick departure from sectionals and not really being able to challenge a higher seed. I think they'll beat Virginia but they'll lose to the Falls, so they'll still end up the 6th seed. Been a little disappointed in Hibbing. I thought they'd be a little more competitive with the better teams. See the section breaking downs as follows:
Top tier: Hermantown, Marshall, and Denfeld. Although Hermantown is the clear favorite Marshall or Denfeld could upset them if the stars align a certain way.
Next: Hibbing. They dont' seem to have any problems handling the Range teams, but they have fallen flat against the Duluth teams.
Jumbled tier: Virginia, Greenway, Falls, Eveleth, and North Shore. Any of these can beat the other.
And then there's Ely.
Top tier: Hermantown, Marshall, and Denfeld. Although Hermantown is the clear favorite Marshall or Denfeld could upset them if the stars align a certain way.
Next: Hibbing. They dont' seem to have any problems handling the Range teams, but they have fallen flat against the Duluth teams.
Jumbled tier: Virginia, Greenway, Falls, Eveleth, and North Shore. Any of these can beat the other.
And then there's Ely.
Can't disagree with any of this analysis, looks good. A few thoughts;curtiscurve wrote:Since this thread seems like it is on life support, I thought I would attempt to revive it with some end of the year predictions. Here is where I see things shaking out, seeding and records, with season reviews thrown in as well.
1- Hermantown - 13-2 (4-0 in section play) currently. While I think Marshall is a nice club, I don't see them getting by the Hawks either in their last regular season meeting or in the play-offs. The Hawks should go 9-1 (only loss while on the road in White Bear) to finish the season 22-3. Could be looking at a rematch in the State Title game with EGF, but I believe this time Hermantown will come out on top.
2- Duluth Marshall - 12-1-1 (1-1) currently. With 11 games to play, the Toppers will finish strong going 10-1 to compile an impressive 22-2-1 record. Their only loss being against Hermantown. The Toppers could be the 2nd best team in class A finishing the season (including play-offs) 24-3-1 with all three losses coming to Hermantown.
3. Duluth Denfeld - 11-5 (4-1) currently. The Hunters will face a number of quality teams in their last 9 games. By going 5-4 in those last 9 will leave them at a respectable 16-9 record. If anyone is going to pull the upset and get into the finals, Denfeld is the team that can do it.
4. Hibbing-Chisholm - 9-7-1 (4-1) currently. Loaded with young talent, the Blue Jackets have had a pretty strong year. Outside of a couple of head scratches (tie Crookston and blown out by CEC and Denfeld), I think this is where most expected them to be. They have 8 games left and will go 4-4 to finish out with a 13-11-1 record.
5. Virginia/Mt. Iron-Buhl - 5-9 (3-4) currently. Lots of winnable games left for the Blue Devils to lock up the 5 seed and make up for a slow start. By getting 2 more section wins and 6 wins in their last 11 games, they will finish 11-14. They need to beat Greenway to stay in the 5 spot, and if they do, they will earn a matching up with rival Hibbing in the quarters, which would be the best possible match-up for them.
6. Greenway 8-8 (4-3) currently. The Raiders are another team with young talent. They have played some quality teams tough this year and could prove to be a tough test for Denfeld in the quarters. Looking at what is ahead, I have them going 4-5 in their last 9 to finish 12-13 and 6-6 in section play. I have them dropping the game vs Virginia, but if they pull out the win, they would move up to the 5 seed. Either way, with strong goaltending (either LaDoux will do) and if they can stay discipline, they could pull an upset and march into the semis for the first time in years.
7. Eveleth-Gilbert 7-7-2 (4-4) currently. For the Golden Bears to get the 7 seed, they will need to earn the win over North Shore, which I think they will do. Picking up section wins over North Shore and Ely along with a pair of non-section wins would bring them to a record of 11-12-2 and 6-8 in the section.
8. North Shore 7-7 (3-3) currently. With 5 section games to go, there is a possibility for the Storm to move up a spot or two, but I don't see that happening. Winning the 2 section games against Ely and I Falls would lock them in at the 8 seed and bring their record to 11-13, 5-6 in the section.
9. International Falls 3-13 (1-8 ) currently. It has been a tough year for the Broncos. With that said, they have proved that they can be competitive by beating VMIB and playing tight games with Greenway and Eveleth. They should pick up 3 more wins by the time the season ends bringing them to 6-19 overall but only 1-11 in the section.
10. Ely/Tower-Soudan - 2-10 (0-3) currently.The Timberwolves have 9 games remaining and only 1 section game. So, they will lose their last section game and will finish with a 4-17 overall record and 0-4 in the section.
I like the way this section is setting up. Could be some great quarter final games with Virginia and Hibbing squaring off and Greenway and Denfeld in a rematch of the tight game from early this year. I believe the two best Class A teams are in the section making the Finals (if they both make it there) a must see game for high school hockey fans.
1. Hermantown-7A is theirs to lose at this point, as the only real question I had about them into the season-the goaltending-has been excellent. I think DM is the only team with a realistic chance of knocking them off. Can't wait for tonight's match-up between the two!
2. DM-The Hilltoppers have been much better than I thought, especially given the losses of Dow and McClure heading into the season. I'd say they are the #4 team in A (behind #2 EGF and #3 Mahtomedi). The result of the first match-up with Hermantown looks worse than it was, as I believe it was 3-2 with 4 minutes left in the game before the wheels came off. I'd love to see these teams meet for a third time this season at Amsoil for the 7A final.
3. Denfeld-The Hunters have also been better than I thought, showing good depth and staunch defense. That said, they are still a step behind the Hawks and Toppers, but it wouldn't be that huge of a surprise to see them beat DM and snatch the #2 seed. Either way it appears these teams are likely headed for a semifinal rematch in February.
4. Hibbing-The Jackets have been about as good as expected. Given they are such a young team, they have the ups (tie with Rapids, taking Mahtomedi to OT), and the downs (losing to Brainerd and Mound, tying Crookston) characteristic of such teams. (Obligatory explanation of these poor showings from a Hibbing fan: They dominated and outshot Brainerd and Mound by a combined 82-37 but just ran into two hot tendys, and the Crookston game was the third game in three days at the end of a brutal 6 games in 9 days stretch. The boys were gassed during warm-ups!)
Their young talent is good enough that if one of the teams above them gives them too many pp's they could steal one, however beating two of these teams to get to state is a tall, tall order. Should be a fun game Saturday night vs DM, hopefully the Hawks will wear them down enough to give the Jackets a edge in the energy department.
5. Virginia-The Devils have been worse than I expected, but it isn't a huge surprise given what they lost from last season. While they have losses to Falls and E-G, they should still grab the #5 seed if they beat Greenway and avenge their E-G loss.
While I would make Hibbing a prohibitive favorite to beat Virginia in the quarters, Lucas Murray still gives this team a chance to beat a lot of teams, especially a good-not great Hibbing squad that takes them lightly.
6. Greenway-Also having ups and downs of a team with most of its talent being quite young. Would like to see them take down Virginia and steal the #5 seed, but it sounds as if they have some issues with taking bad penalties. Need to clean that up if they want to upset a Hibbing or Denfeld.
7. E-G-If the Bears can beat Virginia again, it will make seeds 5-7 quite interesting, as they will have swept Virginia, Greenway has swept the Bears, and Greenway may have a split with Virginia.
8. North Shore-The Storm get 8 because of their better record, but I think Falls may be the better team. A play-in game between the two seems to be an inevitability.
9. I-Falls-Despite a poor record, the Broncos have a win over Virginia and recent one-goal games versus Warroad, Greenway, and E-G. They could possibly pass NS with a win against them and Greenway to go along with a stronger finish to the season, but they are looking at facing the #1 or #2 seed in the quarters either way, a situation best summed up by the words of my prom date in high school: "It ain't happening, buddy."
10. Ely-At least the Ely Wolves are still better than the Minnesota Timberwolves.
I think Rainier was spot on in his assessment. The Hawks have gotten very good goal tending along with stellar defensive play.karl(east) wrote:I can't disagree with the rankings. Entertaining stuff on what should be a very interesting section this year.
I think the Hawks might be a little thinner in back than you're suggesting, but there's no doubt they're the most talented team in Class A. They deserve the favorite label. Marshall should be a sturdy upset threat; the question is whether they can develop some forward depth, or if they're just going to have to bunker down and pick their chances against the deeper Hawks.
So far this year the Hawks have allowed only 26 goals and have scored 86 and seem to be getting better with each game.
I would say that this year, they are one of the most talented teams in the league regardless of class.
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greenway1969
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Seedings are starting to become more predictable. Hermantown, Duluth Marshall (who seem to be struggling) and Denfeld locked into the first three seeds with Hibbing at 4. Greenway, Eveleth, Virginia, IFalls and North Shore should play out as follows:
5. Greenway (11-9) - Greenway is 6-2 against the others. Losses to Virginia and International Falls. No games left with this group. Section games left with Hibbing and Duluth Marshall.
6. Eveleth (9-9-2) - Has beaten Virginia twice and is 4-3 against this group. Two losses to Greenway keeps them behind Greenway. No games left against this group.
7. Virginia (7-12) - A 3-4 record against the group. Split games with Greenway and the Falls. Done playing teams in this group. Can't see them moving up even if they beat Hibbing. The two losses to Eveleth really makes that difficult.
8. North Shore (9-8) - Lost to Virginia and a 1-3 record against the group with its win coming against Eveleth. Has a game against the Falls on 1/27 in the Falls. Putting them at #9 makes sense too.
9. International Falls (4-14) - Nice wins against Greenway and Virginia but a record of 2-4 against the group. Eveleth beat them twice. If they beat North Shore on 1/27 the can make a strong argument to move up to the 8th seed even though their overall record is not that good. Their schedule is much more difficult than North Shore's so they should get the #8 seed if they beat North Shore.
10. Ely
Greenway, Eveleth and Virginia all have a game against Hibbing left. Even if one of them beats Hibbing I don't see any of them moving up in the seedings. Hibbing might have an argument for a 3 seed if they beat Hermantown, but that seems to be a long shot.
5. Greenway (11-9) - Greenway is 6-2 against the others. Losses to Virginia and International Falls. No games left with this group. Section games left with Hibbing and Duluth Marshall.
6. Eveleth (9-9-2) - Has beaten Virginia twice and is 4-3 against this group. Two losses to Greenway keeps them behind Greenway. No games left against this group.
7. Virginia (7-12) - A 3-4 record against the group. Split games with Greenway and the Falls. Done playing teams in this group. Can't see them moving up even if they beat Hibbing. The two losses to Eveleth really makes that difficult.
8. North Shore (9-8) - Lost to Virginia and a 1-3 record against the group with its win coming against Eveleth. Has a game against the Falls on 1/27 in the Falls. Putting them at #9 makes sense too.
9. International Falls (4-14) - Nice wins against Greenway and Virginia but a record of 2-4 against the group. Eveleth beat them twice. If they beat North Shore on 1/27 the can make a strong argument to move up to the 8th seed even though their overall record is not that good. Their schedule is much more difficult than North Shore's so they should get the #8 seed if they beat North Shore.
10. Ely
Greenway, Eveleth and Virginia all have a game against Hibbing left. Even if one of them beats Hibbing I don't see any of them moving up in the seedings. Hibbing might have an argument for a 3 seed if they beat Hermantown, but that seems to be a long shot.
Last edited by greenway1969 on Tue Jan 27, 2015 2:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TheHockeyDJ
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How many 7A fans are going to go to Amsoil Arena on Semi-final Saturday and take in the 7AA games at Noon and 2:00? I know I plan on making a full day of it and hope the 7A games will be competitive. If Marshall and Denfeld end up playing the 8:00 game (2 vs 3), I expect the arena to be rocking.
YouTube.com/BarbellMedicine
Agreed. Don't see a lot of movement from where you have them seeded now. Denfeld-Marshall is the most significant section game left, and even this game will essentially be to see who gets last change in their semifinal matchup.greenway1969 wrote:Seedings are starting to become more predictable. Hermantown, Duluth Marshall (who seem to be struggling) and Denfeld locked into the first three seeds with Hibbing at 4. Greenway, Eveleth, Virginia, IFalls and North Shore should play out as follows:
5. Greenway (11-9) - Greenway is 6-2 against the others. Losses to Virginia and International Falls. No games left with this group. Section games left with Hibbing and Duluth Marshall.
6. Eveleth (9-9-2) - Has beaten Virginia twice and is 4-3 against this group. Two losses to Greenway keeps them behind Greenway. No games left against this group.
7. Virginia (7-12) - A 3-4 record against the group. Split games with Greenway and the Falls. Done playing teams in this group. Can't see them moving up even if they beat Hibbing. The two losses to Eveleth really makes that difficult.
8. North Shore (9-8) - Lost to Virginia and a 1-3 record against the group with its win coming against Eveleth. Has a game against the Falls on 1/27 in the Falls. Putting them at #9 makes sense too.
9. International Falls (4-14) - Nice wins against Greenway and Virginia but a record of 2-4 against the group. Eveleth beat them twice. If they beat North Shore on 1/27 the can make a strong argument to move up to the 8th seed even though their overall record is not that good. Their schedule is much more difficult than North Shore's so they should get the #8 seed if they beat North Shore.
10. Ely
Greenway, Eveleth and Virginia all have a game against Hibbing left. Even if one of them beats Hibbing I don't see any of them moving up in the seedings. Hibbing might have an argument for a 3 seed if they beat Hermantow, but that seems to be a long shot.
Not that Denfeld or Marshall should fear Virginia, but the Blue Devils as a #7 seed could be the most dangerous #7 seed in A, given that Lucas Murray is entirely capable of stealing a game at any time.
I think Hibbing is locked in at 4. Even if they did upset Hermantown, they would need Marshall to stumble pretty badly to pass them, and their 4 goal loss to Denfeld keeps the Hunters ahead.
As long as Hibbing holds serve versus the five teams they should beat (Proctor, I-Falls, Greenway, E-G, VMIB), then even a severe beating at the hands of Hermantown wouldn't move them from #4. But if Hibbing should be upset by Greenway and another 7A team, then the Raiders may have a shot at the 4 spot.
The human rankings parallel more or less what the algorithms are solving given the game data so far in this season.
Code: Select all
MN Class A Section 7
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Seed Team LSQRANK GD
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1 Hermantown 5 1.7
2 DuluthMarshall 21 2.6
3 DuluthDenfeld 58 4.0
4 Hibbing 77 4.4
5 NorthShore 171 5.7
6 Virginia 175 5.8
7 Greenway 181 5.8
8 IFALLS 201 6.0
9 Eveleth 204 6.0
10 Ely 274 8.4
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greenway1969
- Posts: 792
- Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:29 am
The LSQ rankings are not very logical. The top four are obvious so even a 2-year old can figure those out. The remaining rankings by LSQ are laughable. The have North Shore ahead of Greenway and Greenway beat them twice, once by the score of 11-4. Similarly they have Virginia ahead of Eveleth and Eveleth beat them twice. Better check those algorithims.
Predictions haven't really changed much in 7A for a while now, but here is an update with current results.
1. Hermantown- Can wrap up their undefeated 7A season with a win against Hibbing this week, which they should do. Heavy favorite to make it to the X and will be top seed should they make it down there.
2. Duluth Marshall-Although they have had some stumbles lately, they are still the primary threat to Hermantown. The stayed with the Hawks for most of the first two games, so an upset wouldn't be shocking.
3. Denfeld-The clear 3 seed, they played both Marshall and Hermantown tough, so the possibility of winning 7A isn't unthinkable, but the strength of the top two does make it seem their chances slim.
4. Hibbing-Even with games against Virginia and Hermantown left this week, the Bluejackets are locked in at 4. Although a semifinal rematch with Hermantown seems likely, Hibbing will have to beat a plucky Greenway team for a third time to get another chance at upsetting the Hawks.
5. Greenway-The Raiders have sealed up the 5 seed with a 6-2 record vs the teams below them. (Excluding Ely.) Battling well in a 2-1 loss against Hibbing in Hibbing recently has to give them some solid confidence come playoff time.
6. Eveleth-The water muddies somewhat from here on down, but the Bears should get the 6. They swept Virginia, they got swept by North Shore, but overall Eveleth has had a better season than the Storm. Facing Denfeld in the quarters won't be fun, but miracles happen.
7. Virginia-The two losses to Eveleth keep the Blue Devils at 7. This sets up a first round match-up with Marshall. (After beating Ely in the play-in game.) Although Lucas Murray stopped 45/48 shots in their recent meeting, Virginia wasn't able to score and was only able to muster up 10 SOG for the entire game. Murray is really good, but he isn't much of a scorer.
8. North Shore-Beating I-Falls gets them to 8, which means they get a chance to face Falls again in the playoff game. The "reward" for beating the Broncos again will be a game against Hermantown. So, yeah.
9. I-Falls-As above, so below. If the beat the Storm in the play-in game, they get to make the long drive to Hermantown to lose by double digits. I'm really hoping the Broncos are improved next year.
10. Ely-Upset Virginia in play-in game? Fun for a Hibbing fan to think about, but not gonna happen.
We all know upsets happen, but it's hard not seeing the 7A final being Hermantown/Marshall. This would make for a great game and the Hawks could really make another statement heading into the state tournament. This match-up also sets up the strange scenario where most 7A fans may be rooting for Marshall to go to state. Ugh.
Hoping for a great 7A tourney!
1. Hermantown- Can wrap up their undefeated 7A season with a win against Hibbing this week, which they should do. Heavy favorite to make it to the X and will be top seed should they make it down there.
2. Duluth Marshall-Although they have had some stumbles lately, they are still the primary threat to Hermantown. The stayed with the Hawks for most of the first two games, so an upset wouldn't be shocking.
3. Denfeld-The clear 3 seed, they played both Marshall and Hermantown tough, so the possibility of winning 7A isn't unthinkable, but the strength of the top two does make it seem their chances slim.
4. Hibbing-Even with games against Virginia and Hermantown left this week, the Bluejackets are locked in at 4. Although a semifinal rematch with Hermantown seems likely, Hibbing will have to beat a plucky Greenway team for a third time to get another chance at upsetting the Hawks.
5. Greenway-The Raiders have sealed up the 5 seed with a 6-2 record vs the teams below them. (Excluding Ely.) Battling well in a 2-1 loss against Hibbing in Hibbing recently has to give them some solid confidence come playoff time.
6. Eveleth-The water muddies somewhat from here on down, but the Bears should get the 6. They swept Virginia, they got swept by North Shore, but overall Eveleth has had a better season than the Storm. Facing Denfeld in the quarters won't be fun, but miracles happen.
7. Virginia-The two losses to Eveleth keep the Blue Devils at 7. This sets up a first round match-up with Marshall. (After beating Ely in the play-in game.) Although Lucas Murray stopped 45/48 shots in their recent meeting, Virginia wasn't able to score and was only able to muster up 10 SOG for the entire game. Murray is really good, but he isn't much of a scorer.
8. North Shore-Beating I-Falls gets them to 8, which means they get a chance to face Falls again in the playoff game. The "reward" for beating the Broncos again will be a game against Hermantown. So, yeah.
9. I-Falls-As above, so below. If the beat the Storm in the play-in game, they get to make the long drive to Hermantown to lose by double digits. I'm really hoping the Broncos are improved next year.
10. Ely-Upset Virginia in play-in game? Fun for a Hibbing fan to think about, but not gonna happen.
We all know upsets happen, but it's hard not seeing the 7A final being Hermantown/Marshall. This would make for a great game and the Hawks could really make another statement heading into the state tournament. This match-up also sets up the strange scenario where most 7A fans may be rooting for Marshall to go to state. Ugh.
Hoping for a great 7A tourney!