AA Rankings for 12/14/14

[karl(east)]

The forum may have issues, but the rankings go on as planned. It was another week with minimal movement at the top and some juggling toward the bottom. Things should really start to take shape this coming week, with the Edina Holiday Classic and a bunch of 6AA battles coming up. Your top 15:

1. Lakeville North (5-0)
-A pair of three-goal wins over top 15 teams further solidifies the Panthers’ hold on the top spot; since the wild opening win over Farmington, they’ve allowed just two goals in four games, three of those coming against ranked competition. They have a good chance to continue that run against a couple of mid-level South Suburban teams this week, though the South game does have the rivalry factor going for it.
This week: Thurs at Rosemount, Sat vs. Lakeville South

2. Edina (5-1-1)
-No games this past week for the Hornets, who hold steady at #2. They’ll be in for three tough tests this coming week, though they’ve been near unbeatable in their Holiday Classic in recent years. These games will give a much better sense of just how strong these Hornets are.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #10 Grand Rapids, Fri vs. #6 Elk River, Sat vs. #8 Eden Prairie

3. Hill-Murray (4-0)
-The Pioneers won comfortably over a quality Mahtomedi squad, and slide up a spot on style points. They have a three-game week, with a conference game sandwiched between a pair of decent Northwest Suburban teams.
This week: Tues at Blaine, Thurs vs. South St. Paul, Sat vs. Maple Grove

4. St. Thomas Academy (4-0)
-Minnetonka gave the Cadets a bit more of a run than might have been expected, raising some questions about the defense, but they remain undefeated, and that is unlikely to change this coming week. After that, the real tests will begin.
This week: Thurs vs. Henry Sibley, Sat vs. Tartan

5. Wayzata (6-1-1)
-Took care of business against Andover to hold steady in the top five. They have another one-game week now, though this week’s test should be a bit tougher.
This week: Sat vs. #11 Burnsville

6. Elk River (6-1)
-The Elks nearly let one slip away against Blaine, but wound up finishing the deal and stay at #6. They’ve certainly pigeon-holed themselves as the great offense-questionable defense team of the year. They’ve got a four-game week ahead of them, with section rival Andover preceding the tough tourney in Edina. The game with Grand Rapids will be huge for 7AA seeding purposes.
This week: Tues at Andover; Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #8 Eden Prairie, Fri vs. #2 Edina, Sat vs. #10 Grand Rapids

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (3-2)
-The Red Knights showed some defensive improvement in a narrow victory over Eden Prairie, holding their potent top line off the board and showing they do have some strength on the back end when they do commit to defense. They have a three-game week ahead of them, and while none of the opponents are currently ranked, none are to be taken lightly, and two of the games have 6AA relevance.
This week: Tues vs. Holy Family, Thurs at Minnetonka, Sat at Moorhead

8. Eden Prairie (5-1)
-A narrow loss to Benilde gives the Eagles their first stumble of the season, and the win over up-and-down Cretin was tight, too. They’re still clearly in this tier of eight top teams, but when the top line gets shut down, they seem pretty beatable, and therefore lurk at the back of this pack. They head to Edina with some things to prove, and the opener against the Elks should be especially big from a ranking standpoint.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #6 Elk River, Fri vs. #10 Grand Rapids, Sat vs. #2 Edina

9. Prior Lake (3-1-1)
-A key win over Burnsville has the Lakers in position for the 2-seed in 2AA, and shores up their standing as a top-10 team. This team looks like it’ll finally ready to announce its arrival, though we have yet to see how high their ceiling is. Eastview may offer something of a test this week.
This week: Thurs vs. Eastview, Sat at Shakopee

10. Grand Rapids (4-3)
-Dropped both their games this past week, but Duluth Marshall is off to a very strong start, and they did a pretty good job of hanging around with Lakeville North. Upon first viewing, the depth and defense still aren’t quite at the level of the very top teams, but they’ve made real progress from last season. They head to Edina as the lowest-ranked team in the field, meaning any sort of positive result will probably have them moving up.
This week: Edina Holiday Classic—Thurs vs. #2 Edina, Fri vs. #8 Eden Prairie, Sat vs. #6 Elk River

11. Burnsville (2-4)
-It was a tough week for the Blaze, but both of their losses were to quality teams, and they still have a strong win over Benilde to their credit. The nasty early schedule continues this week, as they pay a visit to Wayzata.
This week: Thurs at Apple Valley, Sat at #5 Wayzata

12. Farmington (5-2)
-The Tigers had little trouble this past week, and are clipping along with comfortable wins over SSC competition. They don’t face any more ranked teams for the rest of the month, so they should be able to continue to beef up that record. They now continue with a relatively easy stretch of conference play, though the South game has big 1AA implications.
This week: Thurs at Lakeville South, Sat vs. Eagan

13. White Bear Lake (5-0)
-The Forest Lake win was a bit on the close side, but the Bears bounced back with a strong effort against Woodbury and remain undefeated. They don’t move up since they have yet to play anyone even close to being ranked. They play their biggest December game this week when they pay a visit to Stillwater, and follow that up with a road trip up north.
This week: Tues at Stillwater, Fri at Greenway, Sat at Superior (WI)

14. Duluth East (3-1-1)
-The Hounds won both of their games this past week, but inspired very little confidence in doing so. They’re struggling to put away middle-of-the-pack teams; time will tell if this is merely a function of the system, or cause for more serious concern. A road trip to Centennial this week offers another potential stumbling block.
This week: Tues at Centennial, Thurs vs. Cambridge

15. Bemidji (5-1-1)
-A strong win over Warroad boosts the Lumberjacks’ stock, and their strong play of late suggests their rough first week was hardly representative of their ability. With no one else making any serious noise, it’s enough to give them a chance to rotate through this fluid #15 spot. A big test against East Grand Forks looms this coming week.
This week: Tues vs. East Grand Forks, Sat at Brainerd

The Next Ten

Maple Grove (3-4)
-A win over Andover keeps the Crimson moving in the right direction, further suggesting that, like Bemidji, a rough start won’t define their season. The week ahead is yet another tough one, with a key section game against Centennial and a visit to Hill-Murray.

Blaine (3-3)
-The Bengals have played three straight 5-4 thrillers against quality competition including ridiculous 4-goal comebacks to tie games in each of the past two. Taking Elk River to overtime is a positive sign, and if this team can ever manage to put together a complete game, they could be genuinely dangerous. Still, there’s work to be done. Up next: a three-game week headlined by Hill-Murray.

Moorhead (5-2-1)
-Picked up a couple of helpful 8AA wins, but couldn’t quite put away Holy Family and wound up with a tie, costing them a chance to move up further. Just one game this week, but it’s a tough one against Benilde.

Holy Family (4-3-1)
-Might as well stick the Fire right next to the team they just tied, though they go behind the Spuds due to the New Prague loss earlier in the week. They’re still looking to find some consistency. The next couple of weeks are loaded with 6AA games, which will make or break their seeding; they have Benilde and Tonka, both on the road, this coming week.

Centennial (3-2)
-Blew a 4-goal first period lead over rival Blaine in an eventual loss, but bounced back with a win over a decent Andover team. Have a chance to make some noise against Duluth East and Maple Grove.

Eastview (4-2)
-A solid win over Lakeville South has the Lightning creeping upward. They have a chance to gain further ground in a visit to Prior Lake this week.

Stillwater (5-2)
-A strong win over Cretin has the Ponies going in the right direction. Big game against White Bear this week.

Hopkins (7-1)
-Not the most difficult schedule and the one loss is questionable, but they do have a win over Hermantown to their credit and could be a thorn in someone’s side down the stretch. Just one game this week, and it’s against Spring Lake Park.

Minnetonka (3-3)
-Gave St. Thomas Academy a good fight, and has that win over Burnsville, but the loss to Armstrong/Cooper still drags on them. They have a huge week for 6AA positioning ahead of them, as they play Benilde and Holy Family.

Andover (2-3-1)
-Dropped all three of their games this past week, making the Duluth East tie look like more of an outlier than the norm. Things don’t get any easier this week, with section rival Elk River up next.

[WestMetro]

I would still keep Elk ahead of Wayz because of their head to head win, until something else further changes/ clarifies. ( Loss of Moss, and Zimmer injury might hurt the Trojans)

As far as the 10th spot, anybodys pick is good as another at this point. We could find a situation by end of week where might have to moved WBL into the 10th spot if they remain undefeated, and if others falter or tread water.

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

[green4]

I would still keep Elk ahead of Wayz because of their head to head win, until something else further changes/ clarifies. ( Loss of Moss, and Zimmer injury might hurt the Trojans)

As far as the 10th spot, anybodys pick is good as another at this point. We could find a situation by end of week where might have to moved WBL into the 10th spot if they remain undefeated, and if others falter or tread water.

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

Yeah, I look at his too. STA at 1 was a fine pick for the preseason, but he is being stubborn and sticking with his prediction. STA should no longer be his #1.
I like where Karl has them at #4, in fact I had the same top 9 as Karl and my 10-15 were all the same teams, just a different order.

[elliott70]

I would still keep Elk ahead of Wayz because of their head to head win, until something else further changes/ clarifies. ( Loss of Moss, and Zimmer injury might hurt the Trojans)

As far as the 10th spot, anybodys pick is good as another at this point. We could find a situation by end of week where might have to moved WBL into the 10th spot if they remain undefeated, and if others falter or tread water.

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

Yeah, I look at his too. STA at 1 was a fine pick for the preseason, but he is being stubborn and sticking with his prediction. STA should no longer be his #1.
I like where Karl has them at #4, in fact I had the same top 9 as Karl and my 10-15 were all the same teams, just a different order.

STA needs to win a couple more before they can be considered 1.
Of course, I will rip on them as they are my least favorite.

[HShockeywatcher]

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

It is worth noting that the rankings currently on followthepuck.com is a week old.
It's also always hard to assess a team in the beginning of the season when they haven't lost.

[karl(east)]

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

It is worth noting that the rankings currently on followthepuck.com is a week old.
It's also always hard to assess a team in the beginning of the season when they haven't lost.

Doug tweeted something yesterday about keeping STA at #1 despite LVN's strong start, so he's probably sticking with it. And I don't really blame him--unless you're picky about the closeness of the Minnetonka game, they've done nothing to deserve being dropped from where they were in a preseason poll. It's just going to be hard to judge them until after the Schwan Cup--which, conveniently, is when I stop factoring in where I had teams in the preseason ranking and go pretty much strictly off of results.

Not sure how high I'm willing to go with White Bear before they play anyone ranked. They have the weakest December schedule of anyone in consideration for a ranking.

It's also worth noting how big of a week this will be for Elk River: after the Edina tournament, they don't play any more top-10 teams for the rest of the year, and only one in the 11-15 range (East). They have a bunch against the NWSC teams just beyond the rankings, but I'd urge some caution in judging the gaudy offensive numbers they're likely to put up down the stretch. The talent there is obvious and they have a real chance to separate themselves from the rest of 7AA with the Rapids game, but I'm going to stay a bit skeptical of any team that needs 5+ goals to win against a decent opponent.

[thestickler07]

Said it before and have to reiterate, STAA needs to find better goaltending if they expect to be a top 5 team or a title contender.

They shouldn't be challenged in their section but they could definitely lose if they run into a hot goalie.

Trojans and Hounds will provide a much better measuring stick for the Cadets.

[Nuts&Bolts]

It helped Andover so maybe Visitation has a goalie.

[elliott70]

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

It is worth noting that the rankings currently on followthepuck.com is a week old.
It's also always hard to assess a team in the beginning of the season when they haven't lost.

It is worth noting that at this early junction FTP mathematical formula rankings are not worth much.

[elliott70]

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

It is worth noting that the rankings currently on followthepuck.com is a week old.
It's also always hard to assess a team in the beginning of the season when they haven't lost.

It is worth noting that at this early junction FTP mathematical formula rankings are not worth much.

[BodyShots]

Two comments:

1. Elk River is nuts to schedule 4 games in 5 days. Wouldn't be surprised to see them lose 3 of these games with a Grand Rapids loss due to exhaustion.

2. What is your infatuation with Burnsville? They are 2 - 4 and you still have them ranked in the top 15. Drop them now, and if they win a few games, you move them back in.

[Bluewhitefan]

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

Correctly picked? Lot of season left to say anyone has correctly picked anything.

[Sats81]

Two comments:

1. Elk River is nuts to schedule 4 games in 5 days. Wouldn't be surprised to see them lose 3 of these games with a Grand Rapids loss due to exhaustion.

2. What is your infatuation with Burnsville? They are 2 - 4 and you still have them ranked in the top 15. Drop them now, and if they win a few games, you move them back in.

Agreed, have seen them play 3 times now. They might not even be top 20.

[karl(east)]

2. What is your infatuation with Burnsville? They are 2 - 4 and you still have them ranked in the top 15. Drop them now, and if they win a few games, you move them back in.

Agreed, have seen them play 3 times now. They might not even be top 20.

Three of those losses are to very good teams, and they held their own in 2 of them, outshooting PL and playing Hill pretty much even. They even managed to stick around with North, despite being outshot by a lot. They have a convincing win over Benilde. If not for the Tonka loss, they're easily top 10.

I agree it's not ideal having a sub-.500 team that high, but I think that says a lot about the other teams in that part of the rankings. We at least know that Burnsville can stick around and give top-10 teams tight games, and even win a few. I'm not sure how confident I am in saying that about anyone below them at this point.

[HShockeywatcher]

(I imagine all these readers also look at Doug Hagens Follow The Puck rankings, where at preseason he correctly picked LVN ahead of Edina, and he has STA in the #1 slot, time will tell on that one)

It is worth noting that the rankings currently on followthepuck.com is a week old.
It's also always hard to assess a team in the beginning of the season when they haven't lost.

It is worth noting that at this early junction FTP mathematical formula rankings are not worth much.

Are the FTP rankings from a forumula or are they opinion as the OP would suggest?

[sanryam]

Two comments:

1. Elk River is nuts to schedule 4 games in 5 days. Wouldn't be surprised to see them lose 3 of these games with a Grand Rapids loss due to exhaustion.

2. What is your infatuation with Burnsville? They are 2 - 4 and you still have them ranked in the top 15. Drop them now, and if they win a few games, you move them back in.

Agreed. Elks should swat Andover (poor O & D), but could very well go 0-3 during the Edina tourney. Mattson and Bischoff with Rapids look for real. Edina and EP are clearly more talented than ER.

[elliott70]

It is worth noting that the rankings currently on followthepuck.com is a week old.
It's also always hard to assess a team in the beginning of the season when they haven't lost.

It is worth noting that at this early junction FTP mathematical formula rankings are not worth much.

Are the FTP rankings from a forumula or are they opinion as the OP would suggest?

"THE RANKINGS

The RANKINGS are on the standings boards above. They are mathematically-based on results and strength of schedule. There is no bias to it."

[elliott70]

QRF top 20

1 Lakeville North (5-0) 86.9
2 St. Thomas Academy (4-0) 78.5
3 White Bear Lake (5-0) 77.6

4 Eden Prairie (5-1) 76.7
5 Elk River/Zimmerman (6-1) 71.3
6 Hill-Murray (4-0) 68.2

7 Edina (5-1-1) 64.1
8 Benilde-St. Margaret's (3-2) 60.1
9 Farmington (5-2) 59.2

10 Wayzata (6-1-1) 59.0
11 Hopkins (7-1) 57.2
12 Bemidji (5-1-1) 56.4

13 Moorhead (5-2-1) 55.3
14 Centennial (3-2) 52.0
15 Prior Lake (4-1-1) 50.9

16 Holy Family Catholic (4-3-1) 50.8
17 Stillwater Area (5-2) 49.5

18 Grand Rapids (4-3) 49.2
19 Duluth East (3-1-1) 46.6
20 Eastview (4-2) 46.3

[Sats81]

2. What is your infatuation with Burnsville? They are 2 - 4 and you still have them ranked in the top 15. Drop them now, and if they win a few games, you move them back in.

Agreed, have seen them play 3 times now. They might not even be top 20.

Three of those losses are to very good teams, and they held their own in 2 of them, outshooting PL and playing Hill pretty much even. They even managed to stick around with North, despite being outshot by a lot. They have a convincing win over Benilde. If not for the Tonka loss, they're easily top 10.

I agree it's not ideal having a sub-.500 team that high, but I think that says a lot about the other teams in that part of the rankings. We at least know that Burnsville can stick around and give top-10 teams tight games, and even win a few. I'm not sure how confident I am in saying that about anyone below them at this point.

Sorry Karl, I strongly disagree with this. Game wasn't even close. North dominated in every facet. If Burnsville goalie doesnt play well that games in double digits. Should have actually been 5-1 but Lubbesmyer strategically knocked net off about a millisecond before Nick Poehling hammered a one timer past him, resulting in a north power play and goal being waived off.

[karl(east)]

Agreed, have seen them play 3 times now. They might not even be top 20.

Three of those losses are to very good teams, and they held their own in 2 of them, outshooting PL and playing Hill pretty much even. They even managed to stick around with North, despite being outshot by a lot. They have a convincing win over Benilde. If not for the Tonka loss, they're easily top 10.

I agree it's not ideal having a sub-.500 team that high, but I think that says a lot about the other teams in that part of the rankings. We at least know that Burnsville can stick around and give top-10 teams tight games, and even win a few. I'm not sure how confident I am in saying that about anyone below them at this point.

Sorry Karl, I strongly disagree with this. Game wasn't even close. North dominated in every facet. If Burnsville goalie doesnt play well that games in double digits. Should have actually been 5-1 but Lubbesmyer strategically knocked net off about a millisecond before Nick Poehling hammered a one timer past him, resulting in a north power play and goal being waived off.

Not to belabor this point, but goalies are part of the team, too, and Burnsville has a pretty good one. He'll probably steal a couple before the season is over.

[MNHockeyFan]

Not to belabor this point, but goalies are part of the team, too, and Burnsville has a pretty good one. He'll probably steal a couple before the season is over.

So true, and worth repeating. How often do you see something like, "We outshot them by more than two to one and deserved to win that game."

[WestMetro]

Agree with Karl that Burnsville with Lubbes should remain in top 15 for now, although 9-15th teams are very judgmental at this point and I would probably have Blaine in their somewhere myself.

[Sats81]

Not to belabor this point, but goalies are part of the team, too, and Burnsville has a pretty good one. He'll probably steal a couple before the season is over.

So true, and worth repeating. How often do you see something like, "We outshot them by more than two to one and deserved to win that game."

I am not just referring to SOG. If you were there you would have known that Burnsville never showed anything. They were completely outplayed and if the score would have been 8-1 or 10-1 (which it could have easily been), I think a lot of people who weren't there would have then assumed they were dominated based off of the score and SOG.

[B-Ville Hockey Guy]

Not to belabor this point, but goalies are part of the team, too, and Burnsville has a pretty good one. He'll probably steal a couple before the season is over.

So true, and worth repeating. How often do you see something like, "We outshot them by more than two to one and deserved to win that game."

I am not just referring to SOG. If you were there you would have known that Burnsville never showed anything. They were completely outplayed and if the score would have been 8-1 or 10-1 (which it could have easily been), I think a lot of people who weren't there would have then assumed they were dominated based off of the score and SOG.

What was the score after two periods?

[elliott70]

So true, and worth repeating. How often do you see something like, "We outshot them by more than two to one and deserved to win that game."

I am not just referring to SOG. If you were there you would have known that Burnsville never showed anything. They were completely outplayed and if the score would have been 8-1 or 10-1 (which it could have easily been), I think a lot of people who weren't there would have then assumed they were dominated based off of the score and SOG.

What was the score after two periods?

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