AA Rankings for 1/11/15

[karl(east)]

The season keeps rolling along. The start of Lake Conference play is always a sign we’re entering the stretch run, and many of the larger Metro conferences are starting their second trips around the schedule, too. Your rankings, complete with the bi-monthly section tour:

1. Lakeville North (14-0)
-The Panthers racked up the goals against a couple of respectable opponents this week, continuing to build their momentum into the second half. They have two more games against potentially challenging opponents this week, including a Farmington team that gave them a very good run the first time around.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth East, Thurs vs. Shakopee, Sat vs. #12 Farmington

2. St. Thomas Academy (13-0)
-Got a late scare from Benilde, but pulled it out to remain undefeated, and rolled past a decent Mahtomedi team as well. They get Benilde again this week, plus meet Hill on Holman Field for the first of their two meetings. While there are some scattered potentially challenging games down the stretch, this is their most difficult week left.
This week: Tues vs. #7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Thurs at North St. Paul, Sat vs. #5 Hill-Murray

3. Edina (13-1-2)
-The Hornets jumped out to a huge lead over Hill-Murray, and while the game got a bit interesting toward the end, they finished off the Pioneers and thereby keep the pressure on the two teams ahead of them. They’ve got another one-game week ahead of them, but it’s another tough one, as they face off against a team they tied back in November.
This week: Sat vs. #8 Wayzata

4. Elk River (12-3)
-Took care of Champlin Park, as expected. This week they face improving Anoka and Blaine, who gave them a good game back in December. The Bengals are the only ranked team left on their schedule.
This week: Thurs vs. Anoka, Sat at #11 Blaine

5. Hill-Murray (10-5)
-The Pioneers pulled out a narrow win over Wayzata, which solidifies their top-5 standing; they also lost for a second time to Edina in a game that was looking ugly before a late comeback. It’s hard to beat this defensive corps, but do they have the forward depth to hang with the teams ahead of them? We’ll get some idea this week, when they face St. Thomas for the first time this season.
This week: Thurs at Tartan, Sat at #2 St. Thomas Academy

6. Eden Prairie (10-5)
-The Eagles had a successful trip up north, taking care of Cloquet and outlasting Duluth East to get back in the win column. With wins over the two teams in front of them, they’re certainly in contention to move higher, but have a couple of iffy losses they still need to make up for. This week they launch straight into Lake action against their two biggest 6AA rivals there, so it’ll be a huge two games for section positioning.
This week: Thurs at 8 Wayzata, Sat vs. #10 Minnetonka

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (7-6-2)
-With teams falling left and right here, I’m boosting up the Red Knights. They gave St. Thomas a good run on Tuesday, and have largely been taking care of the better teams they’ve played lately. They’re hardly secure here, but for time being, they’re moving in the right direction. The week ahead includes a rematch with STA and Maple Grove.
This week: Tues at #2 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at Maple Grove

8. Wayzata (7-6-2)
-The Trojans had a rough week, falling to Hill before an overtime loss to Holy Family that completely fouls up the 6AA picture. With Eden Prairie and Edina coming up this week, they need to get it together in a hurry or risk going into a total tailspin. As it is, they’ve only won one of their past seven, and this ranking seems a bit generous.
This week: Thurs vs. #5 Eden Prairie, Sat at #3 Edina

9. Bemidji (13-1-1)
-Continue to roll against their easy schedule while the rest of the state beats up on itself. This week, however, is the one that will decide their ranking fate, and they have some poorly timed absences from the lineup that could complicate things. A win over Moorhead should effectively lock up the top spot in 8AA, and wins against the top Class A teams would help shore up this somewhat speculative ranking, too.
This week: Tues vs. Moorhead, Thurs at East Grand Forks, Sat vs. Hermantown

10. Minnetonka (8-5-1)
-Made short work of Maple Grove to continue their recent surge. After a warm-up with Blake, they begin Lake play on the road. If they can beat Eden Prairie convincingly for a second time, they’ll have proven their worth in the top ten.
This week: Tues at Blake, Thurs at Hopkins, Sat at #5 Eden Prairie

11. Blaine (8-5)
-They didn’t exactly do it in dominant fashion, but narrow wins over Andover and Maple Grove have the Bengals moving in the right direction. The upcoming week is probably their most important, both in the section and the conference: a win over Centennial would bring them close to locking up the top spot in 5AA, and they have a rematch with Elk River, which is a must-win if the Elks are going to be denied the Northwest Suburban crown.
This week: Thurs at Centennial, Sat vs. #4 Elk River

12. Farmington (12-3)
-Picked up a quality win over Eastview, and their winning streak now sits at seven. With the re-addition of Justin Novak, last season’s top scorer who had been out hurt all year, they’re in position to make a second half run. It couldn’t come at a better time, with the other top two teams in the South Suburban up this week. Time to learn a lot about these Tigers.
This week: Tues vs. #14 Burnsville, Sat at #1 Lakeville North

13. White Bear Lake (11-3)
-Got a quality win over Lakeville South and rolled over Roseville, but the Bears’ typical inconsistency reared its head again in a loss to Cretin. While the Raiders are certainly one of the top teams in the SEC, these are the games White Bear needs to win to stake claim to a high ranking. They have two more conference home games this week, both coming against teams they’ve already beaten.
This week: Tues vs. Forest Lake, Sat vs. Mounds View

14. Burnsville (7-7-1)
-Dropped a clunker against Lakeville South, which drives them from the top ten for now. They’re one of the poster children of this odd season, with a couple of quality wins, a head-scratching loss, and a middling record. They’ve got a big one against Farmington awaiting them.
This week: Thurs at #12 Farmington, Sat at Eagan

15. Holy Family (7-6-2)
-The Fire had a bipolar week, falling to Delano before pulling out a huge overtime victory over Wayzata. They’re obviously capable of playing with the big guns in 6AA, but will need to find some consistency down the stretch. Their next six are all against Wright County competition, so there won’t be much excuse for losses. Time to beef up that record some.
This week: Tues at Mound-Westonka

The Next Ten

Prior Lake (8-5-1)
-Managed to make things somewhat interesting with Lakeville North, then took care of business against Apple Valley to hold steady at the top of the bubble. They continue with their South Suburban slate this week, with road games against Rosemount and Lakeville South, who tied them at the start of the year.

Moorhead (9-5-2)
-It’s hard to know quite what to make of the Spuds’ loss to undefeated Alexandria, and they came back with steady one-goal wins over decent Centennial and Breck teams. They continue to be passable, but could use a win over Bemidji this week to give them a real boost. They also face Warroad later in the week.

Centennial (8-6)
-Lost a close one to Moorhead, but a second win over Anoka shores up their 5AA standing some. A key rematch with Blaine is up next; a win would just about guarantee a top-2 seed.

Lakeville South (6-6-1)
-This team has been all over the map, but an emphatic win over Burnsville gets them back into the top 20 in spite of the Rosemount loss. They had a decent showing against White Bear, too. Prior Lake poses their next challenge.

Cretin-Derham Hall (8-4-3)
-There are some sketchy results in there, but a win over White Bear shows the Raiders can play with anyone in the SEC, and they haven’t lost in a month now. Just one game this week, and it’s against Forest Lake.

Eastview (7-7)
-Have struggled mightily in their games against top teams, but they have a couple decent wins and are a top-3 3AA team. Their next couple weeks are on the softer side.

Anoka (8-6)
-It hasn’t always been pretty, but the Tornadoes have a couple of decent wins, and are a top-4 team in 5AA. Elk River this week should be a serious measuring stick of their apparent improvement.

Maple Grove (5-9)
-Terrible record, but every single one of those losses is to a higher-ranked team, and they have a couple of decent wins, too. The rough stretch continues this week, with Benilde on the docket.

Grand Rapids (8-9-1)
-The Thunderhawks had one of the more nonsensical weeks in recent memory, as they got hammered by Hermantown but bounced back to throttle longtime nemesis Duluth East. It’s hard to say which team will show up on any given day. A win over Cloquet this week probably locks up the 2-seed in 7AA.

Duluth East (6-7-1)
-Rough record, but all of the Hounds’ losses are to teams above them, and they’ve beaten a couple of the teams immediately below, such as St. Michael-Albertville and Hopkins, so they cling to a mention here.

And now, sections, with teams listed in order of likely seeding.

1AA
1 Lakeville North
12 Farmington
19 Lakeville South
-Despite the head-to-head loss to South, I’m giving the 2-seed to Farmington here based on body of work. They play again in a few weeks, but first up is a rematch of that one-goal Farmington-North game back in November. Further down, Mayo’s win over Century has them in position for the 4-seed.

2AA
3 Edina
16 Prior Lake
14 Burnsville
-The gap between Edina and the rest grows ever wider. The losses are starting to mount for Prior Lake, but they’ve done enough that their head-to-head win over Burnsville keeps them ahead of the Blaze for the 2-seed for now. Those two meet again on the 24th. Bloomington Jefferson, who just misses the top 25, looks like the 4-seed at this point.

3AA
2 St. Thomas Academy
20 Cretin-Derham Hall
21 Eastview
-The giant gap between St. Thomas and the field remains, though Cretin is starting to pull away for the 2-seed. Eastview and East Ridge are next in line, and the Lightning have a big win over the rising Raptors that should keep them at #3; Rosemount has shown the occasional flash as well.

4AA
5 Hill-Murray
13 White Bear Lake
Stillwater
-The top two await their late January meeting. Below that Stillwater is starting to string together some wins, but need a quality one to get back into the realm of the ranked. They lost to Roseville in December, but get a second crack at the Raiders on Saturday, with the winner likely to snap up a 3-seed.

5AA
11 Blaine
18 Centennial
22 Anoka
23 Maple Grove
-Anoka’s rise makes gives us a fourth relevant team here, though a seed at State for the eventual winner looks out of the question. They’re all 2-2 against each other at the moment. I’m giving precedence to recent wins and overall rank in the above order, though there are plenty of games left here, and Anoka has a loss to Rogers that could weigh them down. In the next two weeks, we’ve got Blaine-Centennial, Blaine-Anoka, and Centennial-Maple Grove; there will only be one prominent section game after that (Anoka-Maple Grove), so this could all be settled pretty quickly.

6AA
-I’m not even going to bother listing the teams here, because there is simply no reasonable way to sort them out via the normal methods of section seeding. Eden Prairie has the best overall record of the bunch, but is 0-2 in the section; Benilde, Holy Family, Wayzata, and Minnetonka are all tangled up in a web of intrigue. 10-4-1 Hopkins has yet to play anyone in the section. There is, however, one team that is undefeated in the section, and has played a game: Armstrong/Cooper, who beat Minnetonka. That’s the sort of year it’s been in 6AA. Thankfully, there are a lot of Lake games down the stretch that will give us a little more to work with.

7AA
4 Elk River
24 Grand Rapids
25 Duluth East
Cloquet
St. Michael-Albertville
-If the season ended today, the above order would make total sense, but there’s still a lot of hockey left here that could mix things up, especially as we head further down the list. Grand Rapids would probably lock up #2 by beating Cloquet this week, and has to be taken fairly seriously despite the apparent ranking gap between them and the Elks. East is the 3-seed right now due to wins over STMA and Cloquet, but they have a bunch of section games left and still have a lot to prove. Spots 2-6 could easily be decided by Cloquet down the stretch, as they still have games with Rapids, East, and STMA. They have losses to East and Forest Lake at the moment, but seem to be playing fairly well of late.

8AA
9 Bemidji
17 Moorhead
Roseau
Buffalo
-No changes here in the past two weeks. Bemidji and Moorhead meet for the second time on Tuesday, and the Spuds host Roseau next Saturday. Buffalo also has a couple of decent wins, but is tough to rank against the field, as they don’t play Bemidji or Roseau; they have lost to Moorhead. I’d guess the northern teams will get the benefit of the doubt there, though, unless the Bison can nab a few more quality wins.

[elliott70]

Bemidji is not hosting an intrasquad game next Saturday.
Hermantown comes to Bemidji.

[karl(east)]

Bemidji is not hosting an intrasquad game next Saturday.
Hermantown comes to Bemidji.

One of my better typos over the years...

[WestMetro]

Excellent writeup, especially keeping up with all the data and momentums.

I personally gave up trying to rank below 8, and now below 6. Too much head spinning. Just too much inconsistency so far, or I guess you could better call it parity.

Wayzata now has the key injury loss.

Maybe time to go on just pure winning record. Thats certainly worth something tangible for the time being So guess that means Bemidji,
Farmington especially now with Novak, and WBL despite their loss to a very respectable Cretin team, ( and what happened to Hopkins?)

Beyond that, it seems to be week by week puzzle. Lots of parity everywhere.

At this point, Im most intrigued by Minnetonka, who I havent had on my "gotta see" schedule up to now , but now I may have to add them. ( I saw Miller back in the Bantam Elite League season). Will be interesting to see if they can get enough shots by Hopkins goalie K Thursday night, then go on to beat EP.

[TheHockeyDJ]

I agree on 7AA at the moment. Seems logical Forest Lake is 6, Andover 7. which means grabbing the 2/3 seeds not only means a home game and avoiding ER in the semifinals, but knowing your quarterfinal opponent. I think Rapids will take care of business on Tue and lock up the 2. Then the 3/4 will come down to East at Cloquet Feb. 2.

[karl(east)]

Re: Hopkins...well, they're in the 20-30 part of the rankings. They are 0-3-1 against other teams in that part of the rankings, so it's very hard to make a case that they belong any higher. Their fourth loss, Chanhassen, is even worse. They do have the win over Hermantown, which helps, but it was a while ago, and they only have one other win that even comes close to being quality (Cloquet, back when the Jacks were going through injury troubles). They'll reappear if they can get a positive result or two in Lake play, but the quality wins just aren't there.

[GOALIEPOPS]

9. Bemidji (13-1-1)
-Continue to roll against their easy schedule while the rest of the state beats up on itself. This week, however, is the one that will decide their ranking fate, and they have some poorly timed absences from the lineup that could complicate things. A win over Moorhead should effectively lock up the top spot in 8AA, and wins against the top Class A teams would help shore up this somewhat speculative ranking, too.
This week: Tues vs. Moorhead, Thurs at East Grand Forks, Sat vs. Hermantown

"poorly timed absences from the lineup" can you elaborate?

[elliott70]

9. Bemidji (13-1-1)
-Continue to roll against their easy schedule while the rest of the state beats up on itself. This week, however, is the one that will decide their ranking fate, and they have some poorly timed absences from the lineup that could complicate things. A win over Moorhead should effectively lock up the top spot in 8AA, and wins against the top Class A teams would help shore up this somewhat speculative ranking, too.
This week: Tues vs. Moorhead, Thurs at East Grand Forks, Sat vs. Hermantown

"poorly timed absences from the lineup" can you elaborate?

First line winger will be out with an injury (probably out for this whole week)....
the other 3 with possible injury/illness issues appear ready to go.