Follow the Puck rankings??????

[elliott70]

"They are mathematically-based on results and strength of schedule with a goal differential bonus. Class AA teams are weighted heavier than the Class A teams. There is no bias to it. It is all math."

Follow the Puck rankings.
He has me shaking my head.

Bemidji is 3rd in section 8AA, ranked 35. Behind Moorhead at 28 and Buffalo at 34. Buffalo is 8 and 7. Only two of their wins are against teams with winning records.

In 7AA Forest Lake (28) is ranked third ahead of Duluth East (28) and Grand Rapids (36). Forest Lake is 5-7-2. One of the 5 wins is against a team with a winning record. One of the ties is against a good team.

Got me scratching my head......

In his disclaimer he says there is no bias but in the same breath says AA has more weight than A. Losing to St Francis is worse than losing to Hermantown, sure... but the reverse is not true.




I would like to see his formula....

[elliott70]

Still shaking my head....

StMA is #2 in section 7 and #20 overall....

StMA is 11 and 3, on the face of it a decent to very good record.

But 4 of their wins are to teams over .500. The 3 losses are to teams under .500.

Winning games over teams with a combined record of 56-90-11.
Teams they lost to are 16-26-3.

Don't get me wrong, I am not attacking StMA. I think they have a decent team and could have a run at it in section 7.

But DEast beat tehm and GR will beat them if they meet.

When your MATHMATICAL FORMULA IS CLEARLY GIVING YOU WRONG RESULTS ITS TIME TO CHANGE THE FORMULA.

[karl(east)]

I was going back and forth with Doug about this on Twitter last week. Basically, with his current formula, wins over AA teams are worth more than wins over A teams--so, yes, a win over Cambridge is more valuable than a win over Hermantown. That naturally hurts a team like Bemidji, who have played lots of A teams, even though some of them are very good A teams. Meanwhile, a team like STMA, which is cleaning up against weak AA teams, looks pretty good. Being the SEC probably helps Flake out a lot there, too.

He was thinking about changing it, which I hope he does. There is no such thing a ranking without bias.

[elliott70]

I was going back and forth with Doug about this on Twitter last week. Basically, with his current formula, wins over AA teams are worth more than wins over A teams--so, yes, a win over Cambridge is more valuable than a win over Hermantown. That naturally hurts a team like Bemidji, who have played lots of A teams, even though some of them are very good A teams. Meanwhile, a team like STMA, which is cleaning up against weak AA teams, looks pretty good. Being the SEC probably helps Flake out a lot there, too.

He was thinking about changing it, which I hope he does. There is no such thing a ranking without bias.

Thanks.
Still scratching my head....

[Traxler]

He does say there is no bias, but doesn't recognize the bias in his formula. I think he also uses goal differential. There are flaws to goal differential being used to assess the quality of a team.

The idea of a formula developing rankings is interesting, but they all fail. The only ones that could be any good are formulas that change after a human looks at the rankings and makes tweaks to the formulas based on what he knows to be true. But, if you're going to do that, why not just create an opinion based ranking instead of "tweaking" the formula to make the mathematical rankings match what your opinion is?

[Shortshift]

It's conferences that screw his rankings... Bemidji is in a conference with 7 teams... 3-AA 4-A... In FTP's system they are screwed! Actually LPH's are probably the most accurate... I can't believe I just said that! I understand that some conferences let the big dogs play the puppies only once and count it as double points but it will still effect their ranking. And in turn will most likely help the A teams ranking even know they don't belong on the same sheet of ice.

[elliott70]

Bemidji has 9 games remaining - 3 against AA section games Roseau, River Lakes and Brainerd....
3 with highly ranked/regarded single A teams in EGF, Hermantown and Alexandria.
Based on FTP formula they will move up more with wins over the AA schools even though the other 3 games will be much, much more difficult and considered a significant win by everyone.

Still scratching my head....

[Sats81]

Bemidji has 9 games remaining - 3 against AA section games Roseau, River Lakes and Brainerd....
3 with highly ranked/regarded single A teams in EGF, Hermantown and Alexandria.
Based on FTP formula they will move up more with wins over the AA schools even though the other 3 games will be much, much more difficult and considered a significant win by everyone.

Still scratching my head....

If Bemidji is good enough, they will make the tourney regardless...why are you concerned with his rankings? Do they really matter?

[elliott70]

Bemidji has 9 games remaining - 3 against AA section games Roseau, River Lakes and Brainerd....
3 with highly ranked/regarded single A teams in EGF, Hermantown and Alexandria.
Based on FTP formula they will move up more with wins over the AA schools even though the other 3 games will be much, much more difficult and considered a significant win by everyone.

Still scratching my head....

If Bemidji is good enough, they will make the tourney regardless...why are you concerned with his rankings? Do they really matter?

Of course they don't matter.

A week or so ago, Bemidji was right behind Moorhead... okay SOS and all that. Now after continuing to win and beating Moorhead, and still behind them and now behind an average Buffalo team. So I started to look at the other sections and realized I had no clue (and I am a pretty smart guy) how his unbiased formula was getting the results he was getting.

Thanks to Karl and others I can understand how he got them but not why he would continue to use a flawed system.

Other than that, I use a lot of resources to put my thoughts together on high school hockey (as well as other things). This resource is tainted, is the only conclusion I can draw.

[alcloseshaver]

Has anyone seen STMA play? Maybe they are good, nothing wrong with a little new blood in the inner sanctum of 7AA. Heck ER is still scorned for being an unwanted outsider to no fault of their own. What if there was an all South final...

[Sats81]

Bemidji has 9 games remaining - 3 against AA section games Roseau, River Lakes and Brainerd....
3 with highly ranked/regarded single A teams in EGF, Hermantown and Alexandria.
Based on FTP formula they will move up more with wins over the AA schools even though the other 3 games will be much, much more difficult and considered a significant win by everyone.

Still scratching my head....

If Bemidji is good enough, they will make the tourney regardless...why are you concerned with his rankings? Do they really matter?

Of course they don't matter.

A week or so ago, Bemidji was right behind Moorhead... okay SOS and all that. Now after continuing to win and beating Moorhead, and still behind them and now behind an average Buffalo team. So I started to look at the other sections and realized I had no clue (and I am a pretty smart guy) how his unbiased formula was getting the results he was getting.

Thanks to Karl and others I can understand how he got them but not why he would continue to use a flawed system.

Other than that, I use a lot of resources to put my thoughts together on high school hockey (as well as other things). This resource is tainted, is the only conclusion I can draw.

I think follow the puck does an awesome job and guy deserves some credit, even if his rankings don't make sense

[elliott70]

Has anyone seen STMA play? Maybe they are good, nothing wrong with a little new blood in the inner sanctum of 7AA. Heck ER is still scorned for being an unwanted outsider to no fault of their own. What if there was an all South final...

Oh my God!

[elliott70]

If Bemidji is good enough, they will make the tourney regardless...why are you concerned with his rankings? Do they really matter?

Of course they don't matter.

A week or so ago, Bemidji was right behind Moorhead... okay SOS and all that. Now after continuing to win and beating Moorhead, and still behind them and now behind an average Buffalo team. So I started to look at the other sections and realized I had no clue (and I am a pretty smart guy) how his unbiased formula was getting the results he was getting.

Thanks to Karl and others I can understand how he got them but not why he would continue to use a flawed system.

Other than that, I use a lot of resources to put my thoughts together on high school hockey (as well as other things). This resource is tainted, is the only conclusion I can draw.

I think follow the puck does an awesome job and guy deserves some credit, even if his rankings don't make sense

Not bad mouthing his entire site.
But like everything else, to maintain a good product you need to make improvements.

[alcloseshaver]

Has anyone seen STMA play? Maybe they are good, nothing wrong with a little new blood in the inner sanctum of 7AA. Heck ER is still scorned for being an unwanted outsider to no fault of their own. What if there was an all South final...

Oh my God!

[alcloseshaver]

Has anyone seen STMA play? Maybe they are good, nothing wrong with a little new blood in the inner sanctum of 7AA. Heck ER is still scorned for being an unwanted outsider to no fault of their own. What if there was an all South final...

Oh my God!

[elliott70]

OMG - enough of a reaction to get two posts out of you.

[alcloseshaver]

Electronic malfunction. It wasn't that good, but worthy of a response.

[elliott70]

Electronic malfunction. It wasn't that good, but worthy of a response.

Deflate my ego.