AA Rankings for 1/10/16

[karl(east)]

The season keeps rolling along, and the start of Lake Conference play this week is a sure sign that teams are starting to run out of time to make moves here. Your rankings:

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (15-0-1)
-The Red Knights just keep finding ways, as they used their depth to pull one out against St. Thomas Academy despite some penalty woes, and then took care of business against a couple of Metro West teams. Now that they’re undefeated into mid-January, they get to kick back and relax for a bit.
This week: Idle

2. Blaine (12-2)
-The Bengals continue to build steam as they head into the second half, and had no trouble flattening Andover and Maple Grove. This coming week is their biggest remaining week of the year, as they face their toughest competitors in their section and conference, respectively.
This week: Thurs vs. Centennial, Sat at #7 Elk River

3. Eden Prairie (12-2)
-The Eagles had little trouble with a couple of northern visitors. Lake play now begins in earnest; a win over Minnetonka probably can assure them of the top seed in 2AA.
This week: Thurs at #15 Wayzata, Sat vs. #5 Minnetonka

4. Holy Family (12-3)
-The Fire had a bit of a close call with Delano, the next-best team in the Wright County Conference, but got it done and rolled on. They only play twice in the next two weeks, both in the conference, so expect them to hold steady here for a while.
This week: Tues at Mound-Westonka

5. Minnetonka (11-4)
-I understand the skepticism about the Skippers being this high, but they continue to do what they need to do. Their second crack at Eden Prairie, this one on the road, should be instructive.
This week: Thurs at Hopkins, Sat at #3 Eden Prairie

6. Elk River (9-4-1)
-Rolled past Andover to keep the momentum going, and sneak a few spots higher. A very busy week awaits the Elks, including an Anoka team that gave them a good fight in the first game and a rematch with Blaine. Those last two will be huge for the course of the rest of their regular season.
This week: Tues at Totino-Grace, Thurs at Anoka, Sat vs. #2 Blaine

7. Edina (9-5-2)
-The Hornets tied Hill a week after beating them, so they drop a spot, but it’s certainly not an awful result. Lake play will give us a good idea of which direction this team is going, and this week’s Wayzata game is big both for section seeding and a comparison to where these teams were back in November.
This week: Mon at Hopkins, Sat vs. #15 Wayzata

8. Lakeville North (8-4-1)
-The Panthers got back on track with big offensive performances against Burnsville and Eagan, and held off Prior Lake in a battle for the top of the South Suburban. They have nothing but conference games for the next three weeks; first up is a rematch with Eagan.
This week: Tues v. Eagan, Thurs at Eastview, Sat vs. Shakopee

9. Bemidji (11-1-2)
-The beat went on against a couple of weaker teams. This week is one of their biggest, as they visit Moorhead, take on an East Grand team that tied them in December, and visit their toughest opponent of the regular season, Hermantown.
This week: Tues at Moorhead, Thurs vs. East Grand Forks, Sat at Hermantown

10. Stillwater (12-1-1)
-The march through the Suburban East took a bit of a tumble in a scoreless tie with White Bear, which leaves some unresolved questions in 4AA as well. It’s hard to read too much into that, so there’s enough uncertainty in these rankings to keep them put for now. Another slip-up in conference play, however, will raise some red flags.
This week: Tues vs. Park, Thurs vs. Roseville, Sat at Cretin-Derham Hall

11. Hill-Murray (9-4-1)
-A tie with Edina is a mild improvement on their earlier result, so the Pioneers nudge up a spot. They now have their first tangle with St. Thomas Academy, which will kick off a stretch of tough games.
This week: Thurs vs. Tartan, Sat vs. #13 St. Thomas Academy

12. Grand Rapids (10-5-1)
-The Hermantown loss was ugly, but the Thunderhawks pulled out an important 7AA game against Duluth East. That’s been the story in recent years for Rapids, with great potential but little consistency, so we’ll see how well they can build on the East win. They’re on the road against some northern rivals this week; one game has 7AA implications, and the other will be more interesting than it’s been in quite some time.
This week: Tues at Cloquet, Thurs at Hibbing

13. St. Thomas Academy (8-4-3)
-The Cadets gave Benilde a decent game, but a loss to Mahtomedi drops them from the top ten. It’s not an awful loss, but the Zephyrs wouldn’t be in a two-class top fifteen. Up this week is a battle with Hill for Metro East supremacy.
This week: Thurs vs. North St. Paul, Sat at #11 Hill-Murray

14. Prior Lake (9-5)
-Picked up a decent win over Farmington, and followed it up with a narrow loss to Lakeville North. Their road game against improving Rosemount this week could be a challenging one.
This week: Thurs vs. Apple Valley, Sat at Rosemount

15. Wayzata (9-5-1)
-The Trojans wore out any benefit of the doubt in their loss to Farmington. This team is just too inconsistent, and trending in the wrong direction. They play the toughest schedule in the state between now and the end of the season, so either they’ll pull it together or they will collapse like last year. We’ll start to see which it is this week, and in a big way.
This week: Thurs vs. #X Eden Prairie, Sat at #X Edina

Also in the Picture

Farmington (8-4-1)
-Got another quality win by beating Wayzata, but fell to Prior Lake, which keeps them from jumping into the top 15. They have a second meeting with Burnsville this week, whom they tied in December.

Centennial (8-5-1)
-A second win over Anoka shores up the Cougars’ standing here. A rematch with Blaine is up next.

Brainerd (7-4-1)
-Had an adventure against Roseau and lost to St. Cloud Apollo, but enough of the other teams around here are losing that they stay put.

Rosemount (7-5)
-The Irish continue their upward climb with a win over Burnsville. A big week ahead includes Eagan and Prior Lake.

Lakeville South (6-5)
-Beating teams they should beat comfortably. The stakes get a little higher this week, with games against Jefferson, Burnsville, and Eagan.

Anoka (8-5)
-Not a great week for the Tornadoes, as they lost to Maple Grove and Centennial. Just one game this week, but it’s another tough NWSC one against Elk River.

Duluth East (6-7)
-Just not enough consistent offensive punch for the Hounds, who lost a narrow one to Grand Rapids and didn’t get much going against Eden Prairie. Things ease up some this week, as they face White Bear and Roseau. If they’re going to climb back into the picture, they need to take care of business here.

Moorhead (7-7)
-Winning capably against weaker competition, but fell to Breck. Three games this week, including two big ones in the section against Bemidji and Brainerd.

Burnsville (6-8-1)
-Seem to be sliding backwards, as the Lakeville North loss was ugly and they lost to Rosemount.


1AA
8 Lakeville North
16 Farmington
20 Lakeville South
-North can probably lock up the top seed with a win on the 21st against Farmington; if the Tigers win again, things get really interesting. John Marshall has an argument to go as high as #3 given their strong record, but with a 4-0 loss to Farmington in their only game against the three South Suburban teams, I'd have trouble justifying that.

2AA
3 Eden Prairie
4 Holy Family
5 Minnetonka
14 Prior Lake
-This order is looking pretty solid right now; the only way this shakes up is if Minnetonka beats Eden Prairie in Lake play, and even then, I think they’d have to do it twice to tip the top seed to Holy Family and drop EP to #3. The Fire's schedule otherwise just can’t quite earn a top seed. The first Eden Prairie-Tonka game is on the 16th. Prior Lake is basically locked in at #4 now.

3AA
13 St. Thomas Academy
19 Rosemount
24 Burnsville
-STA remains on top, but the team that has now jumped up to #2 is one that gave them all they could handle back in early December: Rosemount. The Irish do have a loss to Apple Valley on the record, so another loss could cost them, but the win over Burnsville, who had been doing well against section competition, is big. Still lots of sorting necessary here, most of which will take place in South Suburban play. Eagan and Eastview tied, and will likely battle it out for the 4- and 5- seeds; Jefferson, meanwhile, is buried due to losses in the section but probably pretty dangerous for a 6-seed.

4AA
11 Hill-Murray
10 Stillwater
-I’ve slid Hill into the top spot for now after Stillwater tied White Bear, but that January 23 Stillwater-Hill game will resolve that definitively. The Stillwater-White Bear rematch in the season’s final week will matter here, too.

5AA
2 Blaine
17 Centennial
21 Anoka
Maple Grove
-Blaine remains the top spot, and Centennial has probably done enough now to assure themselves of #2 for now. Maple Grove clipped Anoka this past week and has some chance to go higher, but will need a second win over a top-3 team. Anoka could make things complicated by beating Blaine again, but are the 3-seed for the time being.

6AA
1 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
15 Wayzata
7 Edina
-Still in stasis here. Wayzata can probably lock in a top-2 seed with a win over Edina on Saturday; lose, and things will remain uncertain until the February Wayzata-Edina rubber match and Wayzata-Benilde game.

7AA
6 Elk River
12 Grand Rapids
22 Duluth East
-The top three appear clear for the time being after Rapids’ win over East. East does need to take care of the mediocre teams down the stretch to assure themselves of #3 (and could really make things interesting with a win over Elk River), but the rest of the section is muddled enough that it’ll be tough to knock them too far down. Andover is probably next in line, though Cloquet has more opportunities to do damage than they do down the stretch.

8AA
9 Bemidji
18 Brainerd
23 Moorhead
St. Michael-Albertville
-Nothing new to report here, but there are a bunch of relevant games coming up, all of which go through the Spuds. Their Bemidji and Brainerd rematches are in the next two weeks, which gives the Spuds a chance to complicate the top two spots. After that, they take on St. Michael-Albertville in a game the Knights probably need to go higher than #4. To top it off, the Spuds also go to Roseau during this stretch.

[elliott70]

No comments?!?

What, is there a football game or something???

[WestMetro]

Very detailed logical update. Agree with top 4. Still agree with Tonka as 5. Agree with next 3 too. As far as 9-15 , could go with many orders, this is as good as any so won't try to poke holes. Bemidji has to have 3 wins this week to show they belong in top ten with the tougher schedule teams, Fitzgerald seems to be up to the task

[elliott70]

Very detailed logical update. Agree with top 4. Still agree with Tonka as 5. Agree with next 3 too. As far as 9-15 , could go with many orders, this is as good as any so won't try to poke holes. Bemidji has to have 3 wins this week to show they belong in top ten with the tougher schedule teams, Fitzgerald seems to be up to the task

So who won the football game?

[northwoods oldtimer]

Packers are up at halftime over Washington 17-11.

[TTpuckster]

Very detailed logical update. Agree with top 4. Still agree with Tonka as 5. Agree with next 3 too. As far as 9-15 , could go with many orders, this is as good as any so won't try to poke holes. Bemidji has to have 3 wins this week to show they belong in top ten with the tougher schedule teams, Fitzgerald seems to be up to the task

So who won the football game?

What football game?

[elliott70]

Very detailed logical update. Agree with top 4. Still agree with Tonka as 5. Agree with next 3 too. As far as 9-15 , could go with many orders, this is as good as any so won't try to poke holes. Bemidji has to have 3 wins this week to show they belong in top ten with the tougher schedule teams, Fitzgerald seems to be up to the task

They need to beat EGF for conference standings and Moorhead for conference and section implications.

A Hermantown win should put them in #5 rankings.
A good game with Hermantown should keep them about where they are, a bad loss puts them out of the top 10.
But as people on here say Randolph says, the regular season does not matter.
I don't agree with that. It matters. Not because of where you are ranked (even though we all like Karl's rankings and all like to see our favorite teams get some credit), but as a gauge as to how the team is progressing and what needs to be done to get as far as possible in the playoffs.

Anyway, nice rankings Karl.

[elliott70]

And the football game, kind of disappointing but we are (most of us) Vikings fans and we should be used to disappointment.

[TheHockeyDJ]

Karl, why Andover at 4 in 7AA? 4-9 and honestly they got dominated by CEC. Blown out by GR and ER. At least Cloquet has wins over Marshall, Bemidji, and East. I would say Andover is at 7, Cloquet is at 3 but East is on their heels.

[karl(east)]

Karl, why Andover at 4 in 7AA? 4-9 and honestly they got dominated by CEC. Blown out by GR and ER. At least Cloquet has wins over Marshall, Bemidji, and East. I would say Andover is at 7, Cloquet is at 3 but East is on their heels.

They're at 4 because they have 2 good section wins (CEC and Flake). Cloquet has the East win, yes, but that's all they've got, and what with the losses to Flake and Andover (no matter what the shots might have been), it's hard to say they really deserve it. Still a lot to be sorted out in that area, but Andover's won the games that matter most.

[goldy313]

1AA....the winner of the Farmington/North game will be the #1seed, unless South beats Farmington again, then North gets it regardless. In fact if Farmington had held on to beat Prior Lake I would have had them as the #1 seed as of now. North may very well be the better team but playing a tough schedule but losing helps in the long run but not so much for seeding and Farmington had better wins than North. John Marshall has a big game with a pretty solid Tartan squad I think you omitted in your 4AA rankings......JM plays a soft schedule (in comparison to the Metro schools) of largely A teams but a win against a Tartan team that lost to STA and HM by 1 goal and just beat Mahtomedi would look nice on the resume. There is a substantial drop off after the top 4.......South beat Mayo who should be the #5 seed by 13.

[HockeyonFire]

Karl..I'm surprised no one noticed Eden Prairie doesn't play ELK RIVER. Need to change it to EP AT Wayzata for Thursday. thanks

[green4]

I agree with Goldy, that Tartan team seems like they could be thorn in someone's side come playoff time

[WestMetro]

Elliott, have to disagree with your analysis. As I mentioned, I think Bemidji has to run the table with three wins this week just to maintain their top 10 status. I would note all teams above them have already beat anywhere from 2 to 4 top teams. So if Bemidji loses to Hermantown, they could drop to either 10th or 11th, and Stillwater and or Hill Murray would move up ahead of them depending on what else happens this week

[Sats81]

Elliott, have to disagree with your analysis. As I mentioned, I think Bemidji has to run the table with three wins this week just to maintain their top 10 status. I would note all teams above them have already beat anywhere from 2 to 4 top teams. So if Bemidji loses to Hermantown, they could drop to either 10th or 11th, and Stillwater and or Hill Murray would move up ahead of them depending on what else happens this week

Please post west metro top 10.

[elliott70]

Elliott, have to disagree with your analysis. As I mentioned, I think Bemidji has to run the table with three wins this week just to maintain their top 10 status. I would note all teams above them have already beat anywhere from 2 to 4 top teams. So if Bemidji loses to Hermantown, they could drop to either 10th or 11th, and Stillwater and or Hill Murray would move up ahead of them depending on what else happens this week

Well its a good thing my rankings are more important than yours.

No, wait, rankings mean exactly what again?

[WestMetro]

SATS, as mentioned above, I agree with Karls rankings this week.

[Sats81]

SATS, as mentioned above, I agree with Karls rankings this week.

Thanks Grandpa. your posts are the best!

[Sats81]

Elliott, have to disagree with your analysis. As I mentioned, I think Bemidji has to run the table with three wins this week just to maintain their top 10 status. I would note all teams above them have already beat anywhere from 2 to 4 top teams. So if Bemidji loses to Hermantown, they could drop to either 10th or 11th, and Stillwater and or Hill Murray would move up ahead of them depending on what else happens this week

Well its a good thing my rankings are more important than yours.

No, wait, rankings mean exactly what again?

[@hockeytweet]

A few random thoughts:
Benilde can kick back until Feb 6th, at Eden Prairie. Another win late in he season vs EP could really give them the confidence to come out of 6AA easily.

Wayzata starts the Lake Conference schedule this week. They cannot afford to split with Edina if they want the 2 seed in 6AA. A loss to EP this week wouldn't kill them, but could hasten their downward spiral.

Blaine will have the gaudy record at the end. They will get to the X. They will choke.

[Sats81]

A few random thoughts:
Benilde can kick back until Feb 6th, at Eden Prairie. Another win late in he season vs EP could really give them the confidence to come out of 6AA easily.

Wayzata starts the Lake Conference schedule this week. They cannot afford to split with Edina if they want the 2 seed in 6AA. A loss to EP this week wouldn't kill them, but could hasten their downward spiral.

Blaine will have the gaudy record at the end. They will get to the X. They will choke.

Agree with you on all, other then I think Edina comes out of 6AA over BSM.

[karl(east)]

Thanks for the correction on the typo.

I also agree that Tartan is on the bubble of being on the bubble, though PageStat still seems a bit skeptical. The close games with Hill and STA do suggest they could be a tough out. Unless White Bear does something significant down the stretch, I'd have no objection to them getting the 3-seed in 4AA.

Longform Duluth East comments: http://apatientcycle.com/2016/01/11/wha ... luth-east/

[Wblhcky2424]

4AA:

1.H-M
2.Stillwater
3.Tartan
4.Roseville
5.Mounds View
6.Woodbury
7.Irondale
8.NSP
9.WBL

[green4]

Thanks for the correction on the typo.

I also agree that Tartan is on the bubble of being on the bubble, though PageStat still seems a bit skeptical. The close games with Hill and STA do suggest they could be a tough out. Unless White Bear does something significant down the stretch, I'd have no objection to them getting the 3-seed in 4AA.

Longform Duluth East comments: http://apatientcycle.com/2016/01/11/wha ... luth-east/

Being a younger fellow, can someone explain "the David Brown incident" that is referenced in Karl's blog post?

[east hockey]

Thanks for the correction on the typo.

I also agree that Tartan is on the bubble of being on the bubble, though PageStat still seems a bit skeptical. The close games with Hill and STA do suggest they could be a tough out. Unless White Bear does something significant down the stretch, I'd have no objection to them getting the 3-seed in 4AA.

Longform Duluth East comments: http://apatientcycle.com/2016/01/11/wha ... luth-east/

Being a younger fellow, can someone explain "the David Brown incident" that is referenced in Karl's blog post?

Brown was the Cloquet defenseman who lit up East for four goals in the 2008 7AA semifinals.

Lee