AA Rankings for 2/14/16 and Section Preview

[karl(east)]

We’ve reached the end of the regular season. As usual, this makes for a new ranking format; first, I list the top 25, and then I walk through each of the sections so I can talk about the teams in relation to one another. Thanks for following along this season; there will be a brief update to the rankings for State seeding purposes next week, but otherwise, my work here is done.

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (24-0-1)
2. Minnetonka (18-6-1)
3. Stillwater (23-1-1)
4. Lakeville North (19-5-1)
5. Wayzata (16-8-1)
6. Blaine (21-4)
7. Holy Family (19-5)
8. Grand Rapids (18-6-1)
9. Bemidji (21-2-2)
10. Eden Prairie (16-7-2)
11. Edina (14-9-2)
12. Elk River (17-7-1)
13. Centennial (18-6-1)
14. St. Thomas Academy (14-6-5)
15. Duluth East (16-9)
16. Prior Lake (18-7)
17. Hill-Murray (15-8-2)
18. Burnsville (13-10-2)
19. Moorhead (14-10)
20. Lakeville South (14-10-1)
21. Farmington (15-8-1)
22. Anoka (15-9)
23. St. Michael-Albertville (15-7-2)
24. Bloomington Jefferson (13-12)
25. Maple Grove (12-13)

1AA
QF 2/18 High Seed Home
SF 2/20 Rochester Rec Center
F 2/25 Rochester Rec Center

1. Lakeville North (19-5-1, #4)
-A wacky 7-6 win over Prior Lake was one last little reminder of this team’s potential vulnerabilities in back. Other than that, though, the Panthers were on fire down the stretch, including a strong 4-1 win over St. Thomas earlier in the week; the defense had been strong, and their puck possession and prolific top two lines make a repeat plausible. It’s been a while since they played another true top team, so there’s still room for skepticism, but they’re in a section where they don’t have to deal with any of those, and a sixth trip to State in seven years would seem to be at hand.

2. Farmington (15-8-1, #21)
-Had to scrape by Eastview in their finale, but still rounded out a regular season that brought this program a few more steps forward. Their task now: figure out how to beat South so that they can get a third crack at North. Both of those seem like tough tasks, but if they have the confidence to beat North, it is possible.

3. Lakeville South (14-10-1, #20)
-The 6-3 season-ending loss to Rosemount was a clunker that dropped the Cougars a couple of spots, but their other results recently, which include narrow losses to better teams and blowouts over weaker opponents, have them nudging ahead of Farmington as the second-best team in 1AA. I don’t see them getting any further than Rochester, but it’s something to build off of for a team that’s trying to climb back to state-level relevance.

4. Rochester John Marshall
5. Owatonna
6. Rochester Mayo
7. Rochester Century
8. Dodge County

2AA
QF 2/18 High Seed Home
SF 2/20 BIG/Braemar
F 2/24 Mariucci

1. Minnetonka (18-6-1, #2)
-The Skippers steamrolled to an emphatic ending to the regular season with 6-1 wins over Edina and Duluth East. This team doesn’t have the star power of its rivals for the 2AA crown, but they’re deeper and don’t have any weaknesses in the lineup, and they’re probably playing the best of anyone in the state right now. They have the momentum to carry them through to the X, and the top seed here certainly helps some, and if they win the toughest section in the state, they’ll deserve to be next in line after Benilde in the State seed pecking order.

2. Eden Prairie (16-7-2, #10)
-Has a preseason #1 ever tanked this much in the regular season? The Eagles are 0-5-2 in their last seven against top-15 competition; the goaltending has been shaky and the chemistry lacking. They’re wounded but dangerous heading into sections, and while it’s still entirely plausible to picture them lifting a trophy in March, they need to dig deep and rediscover that killer instinct they had back in December. Even if they do make it through, they’ll probably need an upset or two to avoid the 4/5 game.

3. Holy Family (19-5, #7)
-The Fire don’t seem quite on top of their game heading into sections, as their final week included a narrow escape against St. Cloud Cathedral and a loss to a Stillwater team they’d beaten in December. They’re still plenty dangerous, with a deep offensive attack and some strong goaltending. The likely Eden Prairie-Holy Family semifinal has all sorts of intrigue wrapped around it.

4. Prior Lake (18-7, #16)
-The Lakers are by far the strongest 4-seed in the state, and the computers think they should be ranked noticeably higher, but they simply don’t have a single quality win. Beating up on the underbelly of the South Suburban is nice, and there is some real talent here, but until they prove they can beat a front-end team, they’ll hover back here.

5. Chanhassen
6. Shakopee
7. Chaska

3AA
1st Round 2/16 High Seed Home
QF 2/18 High Seed Home
2/20 SF Veterans Memorial Arena
2/25 F Ridder Arena

1. St. Thomas Academy (14-6-5, #14)
The Cadets are all alone at the top in this section, where no one won more than 14 games. The season-ending loss to Lakeville North suggests they’re still a step behind the state’s best teams, but there is some good young talent here, and with a forgiving section, they could sail through to State with little to lose. At the same time, a couple of the mediocre teams here gave them tight games during the season, so they’re not assured of anything.

2. Burnsville (13-10-2, #18)
-The Blaze clearly emerged as the second-best team here with a strong run toward the end of the season, and if they can get by Rosemount again, they could give St. Thomas a good fight in the final. The offense isn’t deep, but they do seem to have figured out their goaltending down the stretch, and if they can put some physical heat on St. Thomas, they could pull off what could be one last great push for State for a program with a proud history.

3. Rosemount (13-12)
-A win over Lakeville South pulled the Irish back up to the edge of the top 25 on the season’s final day. They’ve shown potential, with a strong stretch around the start of the year when they beat Burnsville, and they have the goaltending to make a run. They were shaky enough down the stretch that nothing is assured, though.

4. Bloomington Jefferson (13-12, #24)
-The competition wasn’t great, but the Jags finished on a strong note, allowing just one goal over a 5-game winning streak to close out. If they can get decent goaltending and escape Eastview, they could give St. Thomas a run.

5. Eastview
6. Apple Valley
7. Eagan
8. Park (Cottage Grove)
9. Hastings
10. East Ridge

4AA
QF 2/20 Aldrich
SF 2/23 and 24 Aldrich
F 2/26 Aldrich

1. Stillwater (23-1-1, #3)
-The Ponies had a big final week, with wins over the only two teams they’d failed to beat earlier in the season. They’re going to be subject to some skepticism outside of 4AA given their schedule, but they’ve done what they needed to do, and will have earned a top-3 seed if they make it to State. Time to see how they handle this newfound status as a frontrunner.

2. Hill-Murray (15-8-2, #17)
-Lost to Elk River but eased past Moorhead in the final week of the season, which solidifies their position in the mid-teens in the rankings. There are quality players at every position, but on the whole the Pioneers have been erratic, and don’t seem to generate nearly enough offense on a nightly basis. The section is thin enough that they should make the final, though, and this is still a Hill team in the playoffs.

3. Tartan
4. Roseville
5. White Bear Lake
6. Woodbury
7. Mounds View
8. Irondale
9. North St. Paul

5AA
2/18 QF Coon Rapids/Champlin
2/20 Champlin
2/25 Aldrich

1. Blaine (21-4, #6)
-The Bengals head into sections on a 9-game winning streak, though it’s worth nothing that they haven’t played a top-ten team since their December win over Eden Prairie, and have lost twice since that one. There are no secrets here, as they’ll look to ride Riley Tufte and Luke Notermann to glory, and this could be the last hurrah for a very senior-laden team. I dropped them a couple of spots here because of my doubts about their depth, and this section’s performance at State this decade doesn’t help their cause, either. Still, they'll be a seeded team if they go to State, and have shown their worth against other top teams several times this season.

2. Centennial (18-6-1, #13)
-Like Blaine, Centennial is streaking into sections, with wins in 12 of their last 13. The Blaine win is the only one of any great quality over that stretch, but it’s the important one, and they’ll have a crack at an upset and a return to State, where they’d at least be capable of causing some intrigue.

3. Anoka (15-9, #22)
-It wasn’t a great second half for the Tornadoes, but they have enough talent to make things interesting for Centennial if they play well in the semis.

4. Maple Grove (12-13, #25)
-Giving Blaine a game will be a reach, but stranger things have happened.

5. Spring Lake Park
6. Champlin Park
7. Osseo
8. Coon Rapids

6AA
QF 2/18 High Seed Home
SF 2/20 Braemar/BIG
F 2/24 Mariucci

1. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (24-0-1, #1)
-The Red Knights took care of business one last time against Wayzata on Thursday, and then locked up the sixth undefeated regular season of the two-class era. It’s never a dull game with the Red Knights, who always find a way to pull things out at the end. With their great puck movement and active defense ; if there are cracks in the walls, they’re in back and in Cade Gleekel’s shoulder. They should sail through to the section final before getting a serious test.

2. Wayzata (16-8-1, #5)
-Despite losing to Benilde last week, the Trojans had a strong run down the stretch and remain a potent force heading into sections. They have the forward depth to match the Red Knights, and if they can stay out of the box, they’re strong enough in back to hold up and make the 6AA final a thriller. First, however, they have to beat Edina for a fourth time this season, and while the two have trended in opposite directions, this team is just liable enough to lay an egg that we can’t take it for granted.

3. Edina (14-9-2, #11)
-A win over Eden Prairie gave a positive finish one of the more forgettable regular seasons in recent Edina history, but despite the losses and relative youth, they still could do some damage. With Phillips back on defense, it looks like they’ll aim to just bunker down, play tight D, and look to ride that Edina prestige to a tenth straight Tourney.

4. Cretin-Derham Hall
5. Hopkins
6. St. Louis Park
7. Armstrong/Cooper
8. Holy Angels

7AA
1st Round 2/13 (Cambridge def. St. Francis 4-3 in 2OT)
QF 2/16 High Seed Home
SF 2/20 Amsoil
F 2/25 Amsoil

1. Grand Rapids (18-6-1, #8)
-The Thunderhawks won 10 of their last 11 to claim the top seed in 7AA for the first time since 1992. They have the firepower and the puck possession game to return to State, and also got themselves an easier path there with the top seed, but with their history against East and a lopsided loss to Elk River in December, they’re still likely to have their hands full in the final.

2. Duluth East (16-9, #15)
-The Hounds didn’t inspire much confidence in their final week, as they needed overtime to beat Lakeville South and got roughed up by Minnetonka. An eighth straight tournament berth isn’t out of the question, but they need to shore things up in their own end and build from the back to restore order.

3. Elk River (17-7-1, #12)
-The Elks are finally healthy and together for the first time all season heading into sections, and showed that some this past week with a win over Hill-Murray. The top line is dynamic, and the rest of the lineup is just deep enough that this squad could arrive a year ahead of schedule and win 7AA. Still, there are a lot of demons to exorcise here, and they have to flip the script against an East team that handled them a month ago.

4. Cloquet (12-13)
-It’s never smart to write off the Jacks as an upset threat, but Rapids did handle them twice during the regular season.
5. Duluth Marshall (9-14-2)
-Closed the gap on Cloquet pretty well between the two regular season meetings, and have a solid shot at an upset and a first trip to a AA semifinal.
6. Forest Lake
7. Andover
8. St. Francis (eliminated)
9. Cambridge (beat St. Francis 4-3 in 2OT)

8AA
QF 2/16 High Seed Home
SF 2/20 High Seed Home
F 2/24 TRF/SCSU/Bemidji

1. Bemidji (21-2-2, #9)
-Beat Thief River Falls in their finale to complete a dominant regular season, including a run of ten straight at the end. The last blemish was a loss to second-seeded Moorhead, but they’ve handled everyone else in the section, including St. Michael-Albertville, whom they are likely to face in the semis. They’ll be a bit of an unknown if they head to State, but they have the depth to do some damage.

2. Moorhead (14-10, #19)
-The Spuds’ 2-1 loss to Hill-Murray is in line with their results to date this year: low-scoring affairs that keep them around #20 in the rankings. They have done their best work against 8AA competition, with second half wins over the other three top seeds, so a return to State is well within reach. Anything further would be a stretch, but these Spuds have some potential if they can lock down the opposition.

3. Brainerd (13-11-1)
-Have shown occasional flashes and did beat Moorhead the first time around, but more than one upset would be asking a bit much of these Warriors.

4. St. Michael-Albertville (15-7-2, #23)
-Should be the 3-seed, but are instead stuck playing a Roseau team they tied back in December. They still should be the favorite in that one, but winning at Bemidji in the semis will be a chore.

5. Roseau
6. Rogers
7. Buffalo

[WestMetro]

Karl , I just made a quick read thru

Excellent and very timely up to date work

Question on your final ranking of Blaine: saw your comments about Blaine, but if they are above HF , then why not above Wayz and/or LVN? After all, Blaine record was 4th best and much tougher schedule than SW ranked at no. 3.

Question on your comments on likely seeding at the X. Under your scenario , Bemidji, Rapids and STA sections would be unseeded, right? If all favorites win would LVN and Blaine be 4 and 5 seeds and play in the 8.30 Thursday night game?
-----------------------------

Adding an additional post mortem thought on this season. Sometime just before the season or early in the season, I made a post that all the top teams would lose at least 3 games and most would lose 5 or more. In many respects this turned out right. But obviously at that time , I really didnt believe BSM would go undefeated, I had them at three losses, or Ponies or Jacks would finish with the records that they did, so congrats to them for consistency in a year of wide parity, even allowing for schedule differentials.
A big part of this was Bischell and Benson were steady returning veterans in goal, and amazingly Bemidji came up with yet another young goalie with consistency and finishing about 90% the last I saw.

[karl(east)]

Karl , I just made a quick read thru

Excellent and very timely up to date work

Question on your final ranking of Blaine: saw your comments about Blaine, but if they are above HF , then why not above Wayz and/or LVN? After all, Blaine record was 4th best and much tougher schedule than SW ranked at no. 3.

Question on your comments on likely seeding at the X. Under your scenario , Bemidji, Rapids and STA sections would be unseeded, right? If all favorites win would LVN and Blaine be 4 and 5 seeds and play in the 8.30 Thursday night game?

On the Blaine question: they're ahead of HF because I'm a bit of a Fire skeptic after their last 4 games. They got back to good competition, and went 2-2, with a near escape against Cathedral. Obviously they have a nice resume, but I think we should judge teams by the way they've been trending lately, not what they did in December. (Just ask Eden Prairie...)

LN and Wayzata, on the other hand, seem to be peaking at the right time. The Bengals, I'd say, are neither rising nor falling, so they nestle in between. I'm a little iffy on Stillwater at #3, but they beat everyone they played this season, so I feel compelled to put them in line for a high seed.

As for the seeds, yes, Rapids, Bemidji, and STA would be the odd ones out if the top seeds all went through, and I'd keep them in that pecking order if there are upsets that knock off other top teams. EP would leapfrog back over GR and Bemidji (if not more teams) if they win 2AA. Otherwise, you can follow the rankings to see how I think teams should be seeded.