AA Rankings for 12/25/16

[karl(east)]

Merry Christmas, the rankings came early this week. (All the games for the week are over, and I don’t plan to spend my Christmas morning making rankings, so we might as well get them out now.)

1. Stillwater (8-0)
-AA’s only unblemished team sailed along against weaker competition. Their first two games in the St. Louis Park Tournament That Is Not Actually a Tournament are looking pretty safe at the moment, but that finale against Elk River could be a big-time battle, and gives us our first 1-vs.-2 matchup of the season. This #1 ranking so far is largely the product of a weak schedule, so this is their chance to show their worth.
This week: St. Louis Park—Wed vs. Prior Lake, Thurs vs. Benilde, Fri vs. #2 Elk River

2. Elk River (8-1)
-The Elks continued their steady roll through the Northwest Suburban. Their week in St. Louis Park gets progressively tougher, and might give us an idea of what their ceiling is.
This week: St. Louis Park—Wed vs. Benilde, Thurs vs. #8 Lakeville North, Fri vs. #1 Stillwater

3. Grand Rapids (8-1)
-Dispatched of Brainerd in their lone game last week. They aren’t in a major holiday tourney, but they do head on the road for a 7AA party that should make for easy pickings. They could slide up or down a little bit here based on what their recent Edina Classic opponents do over the course of their tournaments, but it won’t be anything major.
This week: Thurs at Forest Lake, Fri at Andover

4. Eden Prairie (6-2-1)
-A healthy Nick Leivermann is a good sign for the Eagles, but they still couldn’t get past St. Thomas; that’s not going to change their ranking, but it does underscore the fact that they’re not on some different level from the other top teams. They are the top-ranked team in the Lake Conference Jamboree—err, I mean, Schwan Cup Gold—so they have something to prove there.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

5. St. Thomas Academy (6-1-1)
-The Cadets should be pleased with a strong showing against Eden Prairie, which further solidifies their top 5 credentials. Their side of the bracket at the Schwan Cup appears fairly forgiving, but who knows, maybe Wayzata will finally wake up. I’d give them the strongest odds of anyone in the field of winning it.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

6. Holy Family (7-1)
-Easy pickings for the Fire against Waconia. Their St. Louis Park experience looks somewhat on the easier side, as they face a limping northern team and a Maple Grove team they’ve already beaten before wrapping up with a challenge against Lakeville North.
This week: St. Louis Park—Wed vs. Moorhead, Thurs vs. Maple Grove, Fri vs. #8 Lakeville North

7. Edina (5-3)
-The Hornets picked up a solid section win over Cretin, who’s one of the better teams in 6AA. After a respectable showing despite two losses in their Holiday Classic, they have a chance to really turn some heads in the Schwan Cup. They open with Burnsville, which should rekindle some fond memories of their 2AA days. (For the Hornets, anyway.)
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

8. Lakeville North (5-1-1)
-Flattened Apple Valley to hold the course. The St. Louis Park draw was on the tougher side, as they take on two teams above them after Maple Grove. It’ll be a good proving ground for a team that still has some unknowns.
This week: St. Louis Park—Wed vs. Maple Grove, Thurs vs. #2 Elk River, Fri vs. #6 Holy Family

9. Centennial (5-1)
-A win over Duluth East solidifies the Cougars’ top 10 standing. They aren’t a flashy bunch, but they play within themselves, are tight defensively, and have good energy. The Schwan Cup could be a challenge, though Minnetonka is definitely a winnable opener.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

10. Hill-Murray (5-0-2)
-An unsatisfying tie with White Bear increases the stakes in 4AA, but also keeps the Pioneers unbeaten. Other than the Bears they have yet to play another ranked team, so it’s time to learn what this group is made of. Getting thrown into the fire against Eden Prairie right away should give us an answer pretty quickly.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

11. White Bear Lake (6-1-1)
-Time to start believing in the Bears? They’ve got a quality win and a quality tie now, have some talent up front, play stout team defense, and, most importantly, are getting great goaltending. With relatively few tough opponents to date and no holiday tournament, their ranking fate may go as Hill’s goes, though they can help or hurt their cause depending on what they do with Blaine.
This week: Tues vs. Spring Lake Park, Thurs at #15 Blaine

12. Minnetonka (5-4)
-Got headed back in the right direction with a 5-0 flattening of Prior Lake, which goes a long way toward securing a top-3 seed in 2AA. A win over Centennial in the Schwan Cup would probably push them back toward top 10 territory regardless of what happens next.
This week: Schwan Cup Gold

13. Duluth East (5-3)
-Crumbled after building an early lead against Centennial, but rebounded with a sound win over a section rival; they continue to settle into this part of the rankings. Like White Bear, they can just sit back as good teams around them play their holiday tournaments and do what they can against Blaine.
This week: Sat at #15 Blaine

14. Lakeville South (6-3-1)
-Not much to say about the Cougars, who continue to hover after a win over Shakopee. There won’t be much to say about them next week either, as they are the lone major AA team that gets a true Christmas vacation.
This week: Idle

15. Blaine (6-2)
-I’m basically throwing this one at the wall to see if it sticks. Lots of okay options for this spot, but the Bengals’ only losses are to teams above them (even if the Minnetonka one was ugly), and they’ve beaten everyone else, including a Maple Grove team that’s a contender for this spot. We’ll learn pretty quickly if this is justified or not, as they play two teams that are just above them.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 White Bear Lake, Sat vs. #13 Duluth East

Next in Line

St. Michael-Albertville (6-1)
-Beat Breck, which helps to atone for that Buffalo loss, and on the whole look like the strongest team in 8AA right now. On paper they’re also the strongest team in the Schwan Cup Silver, and also are on the easier side of the bracket, with Jefferson up first, followed by the winner of an Anoka-Mounds View contest. A championship game rematch against Breck is well within possibility; Mahtomedi is also in there, and Cretin as well. Winning the thing won’t guarantee a top 15 spot, but it will help the cause, and in a crazy section, a little consistency could go a long way.

Maple Grove (5-2)
-Didn’t have the easiest of times with Totino, but got the win. They have a pretty tough week in St. Louis Park, and a positive result against Lakeville North or Holy Family could get them ranked.

Wayzata (3-5)
-Even beating St. Louis Park was a chore for the Trojans. Still, I can’t bring myself to whack them too much, because as we all know there’s talent here, and as one of the lowest-ranked teams in the Schwan Cup, it won’t take much to make them look good. Will there be any signs of life?

Roseau (5-3)
-Oh hi, Rams: twin 3-2 wins over the preseason 8AA favorites have Roseau streaking, with five straight wins. Two of their losses are to top ten teams, though neither was particularly close; the other was to a good Class A team in the first week of the season. I don’t foresee much trouble for them in their own holiday tournament, so we’ll likely have to wait another week to get them back into 8AA play to learn if was more than just one good week.

Moorhead (5-2-1)
-Spotty potatoes: the Spuds dropped a game to Roseau and tied Alexandria, continuing a questionable streak after a solid start to the year. Two of their St. Louis Park games are very winnable, and a chance to right the ship.

Prior Lake (4-3)
-At first, I thought the Lakers’ low-scoring games were a sign of strong defense; now, after three straight bad losses, they might just not be that good. They still have a win over Lakeville South in there, but they need to do something positive in St. Louis Park to break the downward momentum.

Burnsville (3-3-1)
-Nice win over Prior Lake, but we’ll see if they can do anything in the Schwan Cup before getting too excited.

The next few teams in line are probably more 8AA teams, but I don’t really trust them, so we’ll lay off for now. Merry Christmas; we’ll do this again in 2017!

[hockeygirl2]

Nice job karl. I really like what DE is doing with their goalies and they have a balanced team. it will be fun to see how the end up at the end of the year. I am anxious to see how stillwater does this week. This week could shake up the rankings

[RoseauHockeyFan]

Karl, I read your rankings every week and I just wanted to express my appreciation for the work you put into it.

[MNHockeyFan]

Karl, I read your rankings every week and I just wanted to express my appreciation for the work you put into it.

Seconded - great work, Karl, and I suspect there are many lurkers out there that appreciate it too.

[Green and White Fan]

I enjoy the rankings. The only exception I would take would be saying the Roseau lost to 2 top 10 teams, but the games weren't close. The Rapids game was one goal midway through the 3rd when Rapids scored 2 quick ones, actually a close game. The Centennial game, they scored on 3 of their first 4 shots in the opening 6 minutes. After a goalie change, Roseau won the following 45 minutes. I think you are spot on with where you have the Rams right now though. Thanks for your work!

[karl(east)]

I enjoy the rankings. The only exception I would take would be saying the Roseau lost to 2 top 10 teams, but the games weren't close. The Rapids game was one goal midway through the 3rd when Rapids scored 2 quick ones, actually a close game. The Centennial game, they scored on 3 of their first 4 shots in the opening 6 minutes. After a goalie change, Roseau won the following 45 minutes. I think you are spot on with where you have the Rams right now though. Thanks for your work!

Good to know these details, thanks...being able to hear things like that is why we do this on the forum. Much appreciated.