New Computer Ratings for MN Boys Hockey Feb 03,2020

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LSQRANK
Posts: 427
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

New Computer Ratings for MN Boys Hockey Feb 03,2020

Post by LSQRANK »

New Computer Ratings for MN Boys Hockey Feb 03, 2020
by Sportsoft

At the end of the season, I will run the data using the KRACH algorithm for comparison of the ordinal ranking of the teams. During the season, I prefer to just run the least-squares method because it gives the reader an immediate reference to the relative quality of the teams with respect to one another. In the least-squares (LSQRANK) scale, the difference between any two team's rating values represents the best estimate of a score differential if those two teams were to play each other at a neutral site. Whereas the KRACH rating scale requires the reader to compute a ratio, which then gives you the best estimate of how many games one team would win against another if they were to play a mini-series against each other. Its a bit more complicated than that, but that is the essence of a KRACH rating profile.

Some movement in the ordering of the top ten after a week of games
enjoy - Doc

Code: Select all

Minnesota Boy High School Hockey Ratings
by Sportsoft

Feb 03, 2020
Top 40 "D1" divison


LSQRANK      Score                                Team     LG  SEC   CLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1    MN  HS  1000.0000                     Andover(MN)  MSHSL   7    AA     22  (18- 3- 1)
2    MN  HS   999.5731                     EdenPrairie  MSHSL   2    AA     20  (15- 4- 1)
3    MN  HS   999.4766                           Blake  MSHSL   6    AA     22  (17- 5- 0)
4    MN  HS   999.1919                     Hill-Murray  MSHSL   4    AA     21  (13- 6- 2)
5    MN  HS   999.0975               Cretin-DerhamHall  MSHSL   6    AA     22  (17- 4- 1)
6    MN  HS   999.0287                      Hermantown  MSHSL   7     A     20  (15- 1- 4)
7    MN  HS   998.8411                        Moorhead  MSHSL   8    AA     21  (16- 4- 1)
8    MN  HS   998.7407                  LakevilleSouth  MSHSL   1    AA     20  (14- 6- 0)
9    MN  HS   998.6285                       Rosemount  MSHSL   3    AA     21  (16- 5- 0)
10   MN  HS   998.5448           Benilde-St.Margaret's  MSHSL   6    AA     20  (12- 6- 2)
11   MN  HS   998.5120               St.CloudCathedral  MSHSL   6     A     20  (18- 1- 1)
12   MN  HS   998.3465                      MapleGrove  MSHSL   5    AA     20  (15- 5- 0)
13   MN  HS   998.2859                           Edina  MSHSL   6    AA     21  (10- 9- 2)
14   MN  HS   998.1687                       PriorLake  MSHSL   2    AA     21  (13- 5- 3)
15   MN  HS   998.1133                      Minnetonka  MSHSL   2    AA     21  (11-10- 0)
16   MN  HS   998.0551                         Wayzata  MSHSL   6    AA     21  (13- 7- 1)
17   MN  HS   997.9700                          Blaine  MSHSL   5    AA     21  (14- 7- 0)
18   MN  HS   997.8641                   WhiteBearLake  MSHSL   4    AA     20  (15- 4- 1)
19   MN  HS   997.6317                          Chaska  MSHSL   2    AA     20  (11- 8- 1)
20   MN  HS   997.5338                            STMA  MSHSL   8    AA     21  (11- 7- 3)
21   MN  HS   997.4780                           Orono  MSHSL   2     A     21  (18- 2- 1)
22   MN  HS   997.4432                         Warroad  MSHSL   8     A     21  (19- 2- 0)
23   MN  HS   997.3509                      Stillwater  MSHSL   4    AA     20  (14- 5- 1)
24   MN  HS   997.3419                 GrandRapids(MN)  MSHSL   7    AA     20  (12- 7- 1)
25   MN  HS   997.2763                St.ThomasAcademy  MSHSL   3    AA     20  (10- 8- 2)
26   MN  HS   997.1630                  LakevilleNorth  MSHSL   1    AA     20  (13- 6- 1)
27   MN  HS   997.0963                  EastGrandForks  MSHSL   8     A     20  (15- 2- 3)
28   MN  HS   997.0269                      HolyFamily  MSHSL   2    AA     21  (12- 9- 0)
29   MN  HS   996.9972                          Roseau  MSHSL   8    AA     22  (14- 7- 1)
30   MN  HS   996.7435                        Eastview  MSHSL   3    AA     21  (12- 8- 1)
31   MN  HS   996.5615            Cloquet-Esko-Carlton  MSHSL   7    AA     23  (12-10- 1)
32   MN  HS   996.5541                      Burnsville  MSHSL   3    AA     21  (12- 7- 2)
33   MN  HS   996.5364                           Eagan  MSHSL   3    AA     20  (14- 6- 0)
34   MN  HS   996.4569                       Mahtomedi  MSHSL   4     A     21  (14- 7- 0)
35   MN  HS   996.1420                      DuluthEast  MSHSL   7    AA     19  ( 8-10- 1)
36   MN  HS   996.0904                        St.Cloud  MSHSL   8    AA     21  (14- 6- 1)
37   MN  HS   996.0109                      HolyAngels  MSHSL   6    AA     20  (13- 7- 0)
38   MN  HS   995.9283                  Centennial(MN)  MSHSL   5    AA     21  (10-11- 0)
39   MN  HS   995.8818                        Hastings  MSHSL   1    AA     20  (14- 4- 2)
40   MN  HS   995.8176              ElkRiver/Zimmerman  MSHSL   7    AA     22  ( 8-14- 0)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Minnesota Boy High School Hockey Ratings
by Sportsoft

Feb 03, 2020
Middle 69 "D2" divison


LSQRANK      Score                                Team     LG  SEC  CLS     GP  (WW-LL-TT)  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
41   MN  HS   995.6982                    St.LouisPark  MSHSL   6    AA     20  (12- 8- 0)
42   MN  HS   995.3946                       EastRidge  MSHSL   4    AA     21  ( 9-11- 1)
43   MN  HS   995.2747                        Brainerd  MSHSL   8    AA     21  ( 8-11- 2)
44   MN  HS   995.1950                      ForestLake  MSHSL   7    AA     21  (12- 6- 3)
45   MN  HS   995.0551                          Delano  MSHSL   2     A     20  (14- 6- 0)
46   MN  HS   995.0225                     LittleFalls  MSHSL   6     A     22  (17- 4- 1)
47   MN  HS   995.0108            BloomingtonJefferson  MSHSL   3    AA     20  ( 7-13- 0)
48   MN  HS   994.9056                 ThiefRiverFalls  MSHSL   8     A     21  (12- 8- 1)
49   MN  HS   994.8522                   DuluthDenfeld  MSHSL   7     A     21  (16- 4- 1)
50   MN  HS   994.8500                  Farmington(MN)  MSHSL   1    AA     21  ( 6-13- 2)
51   MN  HS   994.8302                    Totino-Grace  MSHSL   5    AA     20  ( 7-12- 1)
52   MN  HS   994.7209                      Alexandria  MSHSL   6     A     21  (14- 7- 0)
53   MN  HS   994.6019                   GentryAcademy  MSHSL   4     A     20  (16- 4- 0)
54   MN  HS   994.5628                    ChamplinPark  MSHSL   5    AA     20  (12- 8- 0)
55   MN  HS   994.5028                RochesterCentury  MSHSL   1    AA     20  (15- 4- 1)
56   MN  HS   994.3677                        Greenway  MSHSL   7     A     19  ( 7-12- 0)
57   MN  HS   994.3315                        Owatonna  MSHSL   1    AA     19  (15- 4- 0)
58   MN  HS   994.2517                Armstrong/Cooper  MSHSL   2     A     20  ( 9-10- 1)
59   MN  HS   994.1661                          Rogers  MSHSL   8    AA     20  (10- 9- 1)
60   MN  HS   994.0895                     Buffalo(MN)  MSHSL   8    AA     21  ( 5-16- 0)
61   MN  HS   993.9911                      Monticello  MSHSL   0     A     21  (14- 6- 1)
62   MN  HS   993.8324                 Eveleth-Gilbert  MSHSL   7     A     22  (15- 7- 0)
63   MN  HS   993.8033              ParkofCottageGrove  MSHSL   3    AA     22  ( 7-13- 2)
64   MN  HS   993.6981                  St.PaulJohnson  MSHSL   4     A     21  (16- 5- 0)
65   MN  HS   993.6468                        Shakopee  MSHSL   2    AA     20  ( 4-15- 1)
66   MN  HS   993.6278                        Woodbury  MSHSL   4    AA     21  ( 6-14- 1)
67   MN  HS   993.4846                   MoundWestonka  MSHSL   2     A     22  (13- 8- 1)
68   MN  HS   993.4397                           Breck  MSHSL   2     A     20  (11- 9- 0)
69   MN  HS   993.2848                      MoundsView  MSHSL   4    AA     20  ( 8-12- 0)
70   MN  HS   993.1574                     NorthBranch  MSHSL   5     A     20  (16- 4- 0)
71   MN  HS   993.0044                    PineCityArea  MSHSL   5     A     22  (17- 5- 0)
72   MN  HS   992.9825                          Tartan  MSHSL   4     A     21  (11-10- 0)
73   MN  HS   992.8305                           Osseo  MSHSL   5    AA     20  ( 9-11- 0)
74   MN  HS   992.8304                       Roseville  MSHSL   4    AA     21  ( 7-14- 0)
75   MN  HS   992.7977                     AppleValley  MSHSL   3    AA     21  ( 6-14- 1)
76   MN  HS   992.7857                     Minneapolis  MSHSL   2     A     20  ( 9- 9- 2)
77   MN  HS   992.7735                      RiverLakes  MSHSL   6     A     21  (12- 8- 1)
78   MN  HS   992.5992                      Hutchinson  MSHSL   3     A     21  (13- 7- 1)
79   MN  HS   992.5917                         Bemidji  MSHSL   8    AA     21  ( 4-17- 0)
80   MN  HS   992.5700                       NewPrague  MSHSL   2    AA     21  ( 5-13- 3)
81   MN  HS   992.5581                    SouthSt.Paul  MSHSL   4     A     22  ( 9-10- 3)
82   MN  HS   992.3801                      Chanhassen  MSHSL   2    AA     20  ( 7-13- 0)
83   MN  HS   992.3213                     MankatoWest  MSHSL   1     A     20  (13- 7- 0)
84   MN  HS   992.2333                          Simley  MSHSL   4     A     22  (10-12- 0)
85   MN  HS   992.1712                  St.PaulAcademy  MSHSL   4     A     21  ( 9-11- 1)
86   MN  HS   992.1619                  Northfield(MN)  MSHSL   1    AA     21  (13- 8- 0)
87   MN  HS   992.0519                     MankatoEast  MSHSL   1     A     21  ( 9-11- 1)
88   MN  HS   992.0274                        Irondale  MSHSL   4    AA     21  ( 6-15- 0)
89   MN  HS   991.8428                     DodgeCounty  MSHSL   1     A     20  (15- 5- 0)
90   MN  HS   991.8397              Sartell-St.Stephen  MSHSL   6     A     23  ( 5-16- 2)
91   MN  HS   991.7709                          NewUlm  MSHSL   3     A     22  (15- 6- 1)
92   MN  HS   991.6860                   Princeton(MN)  MSHSL   5     A     20  ( 9-10- 1)
93   MN  HS   991.6323        Litchfield/Dassel-Cokato  MSHSL   3     A     22  (10-11- 1)
94   MN  HS   991.6190                  KittsonCentral  MSHSL   8     A     20  (13- 7- 0)
95   MN  HS   991.6152              InternationalFalls  MSHSL   7     A     21  (12- 8- 1)
96   MN  HS   991.4212                  St.Francis(MN)  MSHSL   5     A     21  (11- 9- 1)
97   MN  HS   991.2718                     FergusFalls  MSHSL   6     A     23  (10-12- 1)
98   MN  HS   991.1937                        Marshall  MSHSL   3     A     23  (15- 8- 0)
99   MN  HS   991.1312                         Hopkins  MSHSL   6    AA     20  ( 5-13- 2)
100  MN  HS   991.1239                       Faribault  MSHSL   1     A     21  (13- 6- 2)
101  MN  HS   990.9634                Hibbing/Chisholm  MSHSL   7     A     21  ( 3-18- 0)
102  MN  HS   990.8087              BloomingtonKennedy  MSHSL   2     A     21  ( 6-15- 0)
103  MN  HS   990.7610                   NorthernLakes  MSHSL   5     A     21  (12- 8- 1)
104  MN  HS   990.7134                         Proctor  MSHSL   7     A     21  ( 9-12- 0)
105  MN  HS   990.7129    SouthwestChristian/Richfield  MSHSL   2     A     20  (10- 8- 2)
106  MN  HS   990.7098                    DetroitLakes  MSHSL   8     A     22  (11- 9- 2)
107  MN  HS   990.6611                           Anoka  MSHSL   7    AA     20  ( 3-16- 1)
108  MN  HS   990.5662      Virginia/MountainIron-Buhl  MSHSL   7     A     21  ( 5-14- 2)
109  MN  HS   990.3880                    RedLakeFalls  MSHSL   8     A     21  (15- 6- 0)


Minnesota Boy High School Hockey Ratings
by Sportsoft

Feb 03, 2020
Bottom 40 "D3" divison

LSQRANK      Score                                Team     LG  SEC CLS    GP  (WW-LL-TT)  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
110  MN  HS   990.2250                   Morris/Benson  MSHSL   6     A     20  (16- 4- 0)
111  MN  HS   990.0219                    ChisagoLakes  MSHSL   5     A     21  (11-10- 0)
112  MN  HS   989.9294                      NorthShore  MSHSL   7     A     22  ( 7-15- 0)
113  MN  HS   989.8819                         Waconia  MSHSL   2     A     21  ( 6-15- 0)
114  MN  HS   989.8490                  DuluthMarshall  MSHSL   7    AA     21  ( 3-18- 0)
115  MN  HS   989.7759               ProvidenceAcademy  MSHSL   2     A     19  ( 8-10- 1)
116  MN  HS   989.7592                       AlbertLea  MSHSL   1     A     19  ( 8-10- 1)
117  MN  HS   989.7550                   RochesterMayo  MSHSL   1    AA     20  ( 5-15- 0)
118  MN  HS   989.7040                       Crookston  MSHSL   8     A     21  ( 2-19- 0)
119  MN  HS   989.5356                     HenrySibley  MSHSL   4     A     20  ( 5-14- 1)
120  MN  HS   989.4028                         Luverne  MSHSL   3     A     22  (14- 8- 0)
121  MN  HS   989.3447                     Mora/Milaca  MSHSL   5     A     21  (13- 8- 0)
122  MN  HS   989.1655           RochesterJohnMarshall  MSHSL   1    AA     20  ( 4-16- 0)
123  MN  HS   989.1621                          Waseca  MSHSL   1     A     19  (13- 6- 0)
124  MN  HS   988.9126                         RedWing  MSHSL   4     A     20  ( 6-14- 0)
125  MN  HS   988.9009                  MinnesotaRiver  MSHSL   1     A     23  (13-10- 0)
126  MN  HS   988.5821                      CoonRapids  MSHSL   5    AA     19  ( 2-17- 0)
127  MN  HS   988.5221                          Winona  MSHSL   1     A     21  (10-10- 1)
128  MN  HS   988.4758                Wadena-DeerCreek  MSHSL   6     A     22  ( 7-14- 1)
129  MN  HS   988.4108           Breckenridge/Wahpeton  MSHSL   6     A     21  (13- 8- 0)
130  MN  HS   988.3562             St.PaulHighlandPark  MSHSL   4     A     20  ( 7-13- 0)
131  MN  HS   988.2926                 SaukRapids-Rice  MSHSL   5     A     21  ( 6-15- 0)
132  MN  HS   988.0758                  SpringLakePark  MSHSL   5    AA     21  ( 6-15- 0)
133  MN  HS   987.9782                MinnehahaAcademy  MSHSL   4    AA     20  ( 3-17- 0)
134  MN  HS   987.9100                  LakeoftheWoods  MSHSL   8     A     21  ( 6-15- 0)
135  MN  HS   987.5926                   PrairieCentre  MSHSL   6     A     22  ( 6-15- 1)
136  MN  HS   987.3865                         Willmar  MSHSL   3     A     21  ( 1-19- 1)
137  MN  HS   986.7803                          Windom  MSHSL   3     A     20  ( 6-13- 1)
138  MN  HS   986.2876                Cambridge-Isanti  MSHSL   5     A     20  ( 4-16- 0)
139  MN  HS   986.1631                RochesterLourdes  MSHSL   1     A     23  ( 0-23- 0)
140  MN  HS   986.1309                     Worthington  MSHSL   3     A     21  ( 3-18- 0)
141  MN  HS   986.0291                  Becker/BigLake  MSHSL   5     A     21  ( 2-19- 0)
142  MN  HS   985.3339                        Fairmont  MSHSL   3     A     21  ( 4-17- 0)
143  MN  HS   984.9788                      ParkRapids  MSHSL   8     A     21  ( 4-17- 0)
144  MN  HS   984.9269                  Bagley/Fosston  MSHSL   8     A     18  ( 5-13- 0)
145  MN  HS   984.7846                   RedwoodValley  MSHSL   3     A     20  ( 2-18- 0)
146  MN  HS   984.5917                LaCrescent-Hokah  MSHSL   1     A     18  ( 4-12- 2)
147  MN  HS   984.0958                   MooseLakeArea  MSHSL   5     A     21  ( 4-17- 0)
148  MN  HS   983.5595                          Austin  MSHSL   1     A     18  ( 1-17- 0)
149  MN  HS   982.8553                             Ely  MSHSL   7     A     15  ( 3-12- 0)
Green and White Fan
Posts: 533
Joined: Tue Feb 05, 2002 3:51 pm

Re: New Computer Ratings for MN Boys Hockey Feb 03,2020

Post by Green and White Fan »

Rankings are a funny thing. If you beat a team once, I can see how they still could be rated higher. You beat a team twice and yet the computer says they are better than you??? Makes you say hmmmmmmmm!
We've got 7 yes we do, we've got 7, how about you!
LSQRANK
Posts: 427
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2014 6:05 pm

Re: New Computer Ratings for MN Boys Hockey Feb 03,2020

Post by LSQRANK »

A least-squares algorithm computing a best-fitting elevation model use score differential data between teams as its observation value.
Say team A played team B three times where team A beat team B twice,
and the outcomes were game 1 = 4-1, game 2 = 3-2, game 3 = 0-4

Overall, team A scores 7 goals and team B scores 7 goals, so although team A won 2 out of 3,
the scoring differential is essentially tied.

Now the entire network is much bigger in scope than just two teams, there are multiple layers and sub-networks that play a part in the overall adjustment of the observation data. On any given night, games played in the North Dakota mini-network will have a subtle effect on the Minnesota and Wisconsin networks (and vice-versa) because of the inter-connections due to cross-league games.

So yes, it's a bigger and more complicated picture than just looking at a small sample of two games where the same team wins both but is still rating lower than the team it beat. It happens.

The KRACH algorithm is biased toward W-L-T records, so it would favor Team A over Team B for sure.

Keep smiling :D - Doc
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