AA Rankings for 1/1/23

[karl(east)]

The holiday tournaments are behind us, it’ 2023, and most teams have now played enough good games that we can throw out a lot of the old ideas and rank based on the results. Rankings:

1. Minnetonka (8-1)
-The near-universal take on the Skippers this season has been that they look like the most complete team in the state, and with Wayzata’s loss this past week, they now have a ranking to match. They earned it by methodically dispatching of Grand Rapids in their only game this past week, and head into the new year looking very convincing…except, of course, in that section game with Chanhassen. Wearing the crown won’t be easy this coming week, as they face a wounded Hill team and then give us the first one-versus-two clash of the season.
This week: Thurs at Hill-Murray, Sat vs. #2 Wayzata

2. Wayzata (8-1-1)
-AA’s last undefeated team couldn’t make it out of Maple Grove with that zero intact, as the Trojans fell in a rematch of an earlier game with the host Crimson. Their scores all along never gave the impression this team was on some other level, so now it just becomes a matter of how they rebound, and they have a chance to grab that top spot right back with a win on Saturday.
This week: Thurs vs. Buffalo, Sat at #1 Minnetonka

3. Maple Grove (9-2)
-Few teams had better holiday tournament results than the Crimson, who have now won seven straight, including a decisive win over Cretin and ending Wayzata’s undefeated run. This week’s collision with Andover is huge for ranking positioning.
This week: Thurs at #7 Andover, Sat vs. Blaine

4. Edina (8-3)
- The Hornets are right there with Maple Grove in recent impressiveness, as they have now rattled off eight in a row after losing their first three, including two top ten wins in Prior Lake this past week. They’ll look to keep the momentum going against a Lakeville South team that has fallen from grace a bit here.
This week: Thurs vs. #12 Lakeville South

5. Chanhassen (10-1)
-Piling up the wins: the Storm marched steadily through their three opponents in St. Louis Park, the win over Lakeville South being the big one. Their schedule has not been on par with the other top teams (that Minnetonka win is the sole reason they are up here), but it’s hard to argue with 10-1. With only one top team left on their schedule (Benilde, twice), they have the chance to run up a gaudy record, though it begs the eternal question: will this group be battle-tested enough for the 2AA playoff meat grinder?
This week: Thurs vs. Waconia, Sat vs. St. Louis Park

6. St. Thomas Academy (9-2)
-While the Cadets lost to Edina, their holiday tournament did little to change my opinion of them, and a strong showing against Moorhead to wrap it all up, they stay right up here toward the top. Enigmatic Benilde is on their radar this coming week.
This week: Thurs vs. #9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Sat vs. Mahtomedi

7. Andover (7-4-1)
-Has the sleeping giant awoken? Granted, both of their opponents in big wins this past week, Hill and Benilde, have some question marks, but they did exactly what they needed to do to reassert their offensive superiority. A huge clash atop the Northwest Suburban is up next.
This week: Thurs vs. #3 Maple Grove, Sat at Osseo

8. Cretin-Derham Hall (8-4)
-The Raiders lost twice in Maple Grove, but neither of the defeats really qualifies as a bad loss, as they hung in there against two top five teams, Maple Grove and Wayzata. They are now through the toughest part of their schedule, though the two remaining dates with Stillwater are well worth watching, and one of those is up this week.
This week: Thurs vs. #11 Stillwater, Sat at Roseville

9. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (6-4)
-The Red Knights had a feast-or-famine week, getting blasted by Andover, in turn blasting Lakeville South, and even having a tight game with St. Louis Park. Despite a lot of crooked scores so far, they have yet to beat a team above them or lose to a team below them here, so this does feel about right. The challenges just keep coming in the week ahead.
This week: Tues vs. Mahtomedi, Thurs at #6 St. Thomas Academy, Sat at #15 Moorhead

10. Rogers (6-2-2)
-The Rogers hype took a bit of a dip in Prior Lake, with the Royals failing to win a single game. An overtime loss to Edina isn’t that bad, and a tight tie with Eden Prairie is acceptable, but the Chaska tie is a bit more of a red flag. A busy week awaits them, with the headliner coming early with a visit to Moorhead.
This week: Tues at #15 Moorhead, Thurs at Armstrong/Cooper, Sat at Elk River

11. Stillwater (6-1)
-The team that just gets to sit and watch as chaos ensues around them. They’ve got a three-game week ahead of them, including two 7AA opponents and a big showdown with Cretin. The Maple Grove win is doing a lot of work for them in these rankings right now, so this week should be telling.
This week: Tues vs. Cloquet, Thurs at #8 Cretin-Derham Hall, Sat vs. Duluth East

12. Lakeville South (5-3)
-The Cougars fall out of the top ten after an underwhelming holiday tournament. Their losses are all to top ten teams and they have a couple of decent wins (Eastview being the best of the bunch at the moment), but they have yet to really find any wow factor. We’ll see if they can do anything against Edina.
This week: Tues at Eagan, Sat at #4 Edina

13. Eastview (6-2)
-Holding steady after a week with no games. They have a sneaky tough week ahead of them featuring three respectable opponents, two of which will have a real effect on section seeding.
This week: Tues vs. Shakopee, Thurs at Park of Cottage Grove, Sat Rosemount

14. Centennial (4-3-1)
-One of several teams in this part of the rankings that did not play this past week, and could use some new data to give us a sense of where they stand. The Duluth East game this week will offer them that opportunity.
This week: Tues at Duluth East, Thurs at Spring Lake Park, Sat vs. Coon Rapids

15. Moorhead (6-5)
-The Spuds’ time in Prior Lake further cemented them as a 10-15ish team, as they were competitive in losses to a now-full-strength Edina and St. Thomas, and took care of business against Lakeville North. There’s plenty to track here in the coming week, as they host two teams that are ahead of them in the rnakings, having shown some promise but also taken their lumps.
This week: Tues vs. #10 Rogers, Sat vs. #9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s

The Next Ten

White Bear Lake (7-2)
-Took care of a pesky Mounds View team in their lone game this past week. They’ve got three this coming week, with St. Cloud being the more interesting one before likely wins over Forest Lake and Tartan.

Champlin Park (7-2)
-Time to start paying attention to the Rebels, who went undefeated in St. Louis Park this past week, including a signature win over Hill. Early Woodbury debacle aside, their scores have all looked like those of a legitimate contender, and if that’s the case they should be able to add some wins against Blaine and Armstrong/Cooper this coming week.

Holy Family (8-3)
-A loss to Gentry interrupts what had otherwise had been a pretty promising December for the Fire; they won their other two holiday tournament games comfortably. For all the goals, I’m not quite sold on this group yet. They head up to Grand Forks area this week, playing a game on each side of the border.

Eden Prairie (4-6-1)
-The Eagles are one of the most enigmatic teams in the early going, with a loss to Chaska undoing any goodwill their tie with Rogers had earned them, and potentially creating a situation in 2AA seeding to boot. Another notable section opponent looms in Prior Lake, and they’ve got Hermantown this week, too.

Grand Rapids (8-4)
-A 4-1 loss to Minnetonka was on brand for this season’s Thunderhawks, who hung around thanks to tight defense but couldn’t generate enough against a great opponent. Just one game this coming week, but it’s a pivotal one in 7AA, as they look to validate their early win over Duluth East with a second one and potentially guarantee a top two seed.

Duluth East (6-5)
-The Hounds blasted Blaine in their only action this past week. The week ahead is huge for them, as they play Centennial, a Grand Rapids rematch, and Stillwater. Is this team a real contender, or just one with an outside shot at the occasional upset?

Shakopee (5-3)
-Had a close-for-comfort win against Mounds View, but followed that up by hanging around in a loss to Hermantown. Eastview and Prior Lake this week will further help rank them.

Hill-Murray (3-6)
-Raise your hand if you had a winless holiday tournament for Hill on your bingo card: the Pioneers are suddenly off to their worst start since 2001. One would assume there’s more to them than this, but without reputation, they might not even be top 25 right now. Their reward for all these struggles? A date with Minnetonka on Thursday.

Prior Lake (6-4)
-Continued respectability so far for the Lakers, who thumped Chaska and beat Lakeville North, while also not being humiliated by St. Thomas; all in all, they’ve been pretty consistent. Eden Prairie and Shakopee loom in a tough week ahead of them.

Roseau (8-4)
-The Rams are back in the picture after cruising through the holiday tournament. Unlike a lot of the other teams in the 8AA pile-up, they’ve at least shown some genuine explosiveness. A key section game against Sartell is up this week.

And a run through sections:

1AA
12 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
Rochester Mayo
Hastings
-Not much movement here: South might be a little worse than expected and North a bit better, but their first meeting still established a clear 1-2 pecking order. No real change in the 3- and 4-seed since last check-in; I’m still slotting Mayo and Hastings there at the moment given their early tie, but Century is off to an alright start and merits some watching, too. Hastings and Mayo meet on January 10 to offer us more insight.

2AA
5 Chanhassen
1 Minnetonka
22 Shakopee
18 Holy Family
24 Prior Lake
Chaska
19 Eden Prairie
-This is one of the more head-spinning sections I’ve ever seen. Minnetonka is the top team in the state right now, but has lost to Chanhassen; at the very least, those two are well-positioned to be one and two. I’m giving Chanhassen the top seed today on the head-to-head meeting, but that could change if the Skippers really assert themselves as #1 overall. Shakopee, despite not being stellar, has section wins over Holy Family and Chaska. From there, Holy Family has beaten Prior Lake who has beaten Chaska who has beaten Eden Prairie, so right now I’m going with this order, even if it potentially leaves the third-best team in the section as the 7-seed. Needless to say, there is a lot more that needs to play out here.

3AA
6 St. Thomas Academy
8 Cretin-Derham Hall
13 Eastview
Park of Cottage Grove
-St. Thomas and Cretin have now split their two games, so it’ll be a race between the two of them down the stretch to build the better overall résumé. Eastview is the default three for now; Park had been moving up the table until a clunker against Cloquet in Duluth this past week. I’m still giving them the benefit of the doubt over a 3-win Rosemount team for the 4-seed; those two will not meet, though we do have an Eastview-Park meeting this coming week to help out some.

4AA
11 Stillwater
16 White Bear Lake
23 Hill-Murray
Gentry Academy
-Stillwater has to be licking its chops at what’s been happening with the rest of the section while they took a holiday break. I’m slotting the ever-hard-to-measure Gentry in at the 4-seed after the Holy Family win, but Woodbury and perhaps Roseville are also somewhere in the picture. There are games between all the big guns yet to come, so nothing is set in stone.

5AA
3 Maple Grove
10 Rogers
14 Centennial
17 Champlin Park
-The weather has not been kind to the early games between the top four here. With any luck, that will change in the coming two weeks, as we have Champlin-Centennial, Champlin-Rogers, and Maple Grove-Rogers all on the schedule to give this one some genuine clarity.

6AA
2 Wayzata
4 Edina
9 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
Blake
-The top two have wins over Benilde and are probably 1-2 in an order to be determined by their two later meetings. Benilde has now beaten all the mid-tier teams here and is probably locked in at the 3-seed. I think Blake continues to do enough to be the 4-seed, but they have Holy Angels at the end of the month, and Armstrong/Cooper and St. Louis Park are somewhere in the hunt, too.

7AA
7 Andover
20 Grand Rapids
21 Duluth East
Cloquet
-East’s win over Andover raises a few questions in this section, which, notably, has abandoned QRF and returned to a coaches’ vote for seeding this season. If East can avenge its Rapids loss this week and play well enough down the stretch, the Hounds could make a reasonable argument for the top seed; Rapids also controls its own destiny, with games against East and Andover remaining. Still, I wouldn’t bet against the Huskies for the top spot here quite yet. Cloquet’s win over Park is the first thing of any quality by anyone below the top three and is enough for 4-seed positioning at the moment.

8AA
15 Moorhead
25 Roseau
St. Cloud
Buffalo
-After the Spuds this one feels like just as much of a cluster, only with weaker teams. Roseau has done enough to separate itself a bit, and is 3-1 against non-Spuds teams in the section; St. Cloud is 2-0-1, so they come next here. Buffalo, which is 2-1-1, is the other team with a winning record against that group, so they come next. Elk River had been in good position here but just had a rough road trip north; they could be as far down as 7. Brainerd is an interesting case, having now beaten both Elk River and Sartell, so they could be 5 while Sartell is 6. But, plenty more games between all of these teams to come.

[elliott70]

8AA
15 Moorhead
25 Roseau
St. Cloud
Buffalo
-After the Spuds this one feels like just as much of a cluster, only with weaker teams. Roseau has done enough to separate itself a bit, and is 3-1 against non-Spuds teams in the section; St. Cloud is 2-0-1, so they come next here. Buffalo, which is 2-1-1, is the other team with a winning record against that group, so they come next. Elk River had been in good position here but just had a rough road trip north; they could be as far down as 7. Brainerd is an interesting case, having now beaten both Elk River and Sartell, so they could be 5 while Sartell is 6. But, plenty more games between all of these teams to come.

Sartell and Brainerd need to be considered in the mix.
Brainerd goalie has come back and improves the team.
Sartell is probably the number #3 team.
St Cloud will get the #4 seed possibly #5.
As Bemidji goes through the season and the young quality players gain experience and get stronger, they may be the 6 seed and capable of competing with Moorhead/Roseau.

[O-townClown]

Hill-Murray (3-6)
-Raise your hand if you had a winless holiday tournament for Hill on your bingo card: the Pioneers are suddenly off to their worst start since 2001. One would assume there’s more to them than this, but without reputation, they might not even be top 25 right now. Their reward for all these struggles? A date with Minnetonka on Thursday.

I REALLY like this team. The record looks horrible, but the games are fun to watch and if they have a tight game with a top team it isn't a surprise. Back-to-back games with Edina will bear this out.

[headsupsticksdown]

Painful to say, but nobody wants to play Edina right now…. They’re probably playing the best hockey in the state at the moment.

[east hockey]

Painful to say, but nobody wants to play Edina right now…. They’re probably playing the best hockey in the state at the moment.

They (and Andover) are certainly surging

Lee

[WestMetro]

HM Ben Miller has been out injured , big loss for the Pios

[Smooth]

Going to be a long road for hill. Can't remember the last season they finished under 500.

[Sparlimb]

Going to be a long road for hill. Can't remember the last season they finished under 500.

Has only happened 3 times (once since they joined the public schools). Early in Lechs tenure (2001). They made the state finals with a good, not great, team the following year. And gave a great Holy Angels team everything they could handle...

[East Side Pioneer Guy]

Hill-Murray (3-6)
-Raise your hand if you had a winless holiday tournament for Hill on your bingo card: the Pioneers are suddenly off to their worst start since 2001. One would assume there’s more to them than this, but without reputation, they might not even be top 25 right now. Their reward for all these struggles? A date with Minnetonka on Thursday.

I REALLY like this team. The record looks horrible, but the games are fun to watch and if they have a tight game with a top team it isn't a surprise. Back-to-back games with Edina will bear this out.

Last night's contest agin' Tonka was a definite step back. Hill was not in that game at all, and running time was a real possibility. The PP is AWOL. Up till last night, they were very much in every game.

[Sparlimb]

Hill-Murray (3-6)
-Raise your hand if you had a winless holiday tournament for Hill on your bingo card: the Pioneers are suddenly off to their worst start since 2001. One would assume there’s more to them than this, but without reputation, they might not even be top 25 right now. Their reward for all these struggles? A date with Minnetonka on Thursday.

I REALLY like this team. The record looks horrible, but the games are fun to watch and if they have a tight game with a top team it isn't a surprise. Back-to-back games with Edina will bear this out.

Last night's contest agin' Tonka was a definite step back. Hill was not in that game at all, and running time was a real possibility. The PP is AWOL. Up till last night, they were very much in every game.

They had to hold on to beat Henry Sibley 1-0 today. They are certainly not looking like a team with any chance of making a section run.