AA Rankings for 1/15/23

[karl(east)]

I’m back, a day late but still here to deliver the goods. It wasn’t a week with a ton of movement, but it was clarifying at times, with contenders separating from pretenders and a few teams finding new leases on life. Rankings:

1. Wayzata (12-1-1)
-No drama for the Trojans, who shut out two weaker opponents. After a playing a Lakeville North team that is playing some okay hockey they head to the far north, and give us an A vs. AA battle of top-ranked teams, along with facing off against Roseau.
This week: Wed vs. Lakeville North, Fri at Warroad, Sat at Roseau

2. Minnetonka (12-2)
-The Skippers were authoritative in a three-game week that included victories over Eastview and Duluth East, and move back up a spot after Maple Grove’s tie with Rogers. After a section game with Chaska they head into the Lake Conference meat grinder, including a wounded section rival and a top five opponent, where a win could help the Skippers further assert their place in a higher class from the rest.
This week: Tues at Chaska, Thurs vs. #5 Edina, Sat at Eden Prairie

3. Maple Grove (12-2-1)
-The Crimson’s win streak ended at ten with a tie against Rogers, but the run before it was strong enough that I’m not inclined to drop them more than an obligatory single spot. Champlin is up next as an opponent of interest this week.
This week: Thurs at Champlin Park, Sat vs. Elk River

4. Chanhassen (14-1)
-The Storm continues to make steady progress, methodically beating weaker teams on this weak schedule. Orono and Prior Lake are both okay, but those wins really tell us nothing about where this team belongs in this top five. Chaska this week probably won’t change much either, unless they fall into a rivalry trap.
This week: Sat vs. Chaska

5. Edina (10-3-1)
-The Hornets beat St. Thomas for a second time this season, and handled Buffalo as well, so they hold steady here. It’s now their turn to get a crack at Minnetonka; do they have the depth to skate with the Skippers?
This week: Thurs at #2 Minnetonka, Sat vs. St. Michael-Albertville

6. Andover (9-5-1)
-A win over Centennial validates the Huskies’ placement on the edge of the top five; it’s been a ride at times this season, but the ability is still somewhere in there. They are now into the underbelly of the conference and should pile up some wins.
This week: Tues at Blaine, Sat vs. Anoka

7. Benilde-St. Margaret’s (10-4)
-The Red Knights thumped Chaska twice, which is all one can ask for against that schedule. Both of their games this week fall into the “maybe interesting” category, as they face one of Class A’s better teams and a Champlin team that has been hovering around the fringes of the rankings for a while now.
This week: Mon vs. Mahtomedi, Wed at Champlin Park

8. Rogers (9-2-3)
-Between the way things had been trending and the shot count in the game, a tie against Maple Grove was not a bad result for the Royals at all. I think that result more or less confirms this ranking: they belong in the top ten, but aren’t quite on the level of the cream of the crop here. They continue their run against tougher Northwest Suburban teams this week when they meet Centennial.
This week: Thurs vs. Osseo, Sat at #10 Centennial

9. Cretin-Derham Hall (11-4-1)
-Solid wins against Mahtomedi and Mounds View keep have the Raiders looking good, and in both their conference and their section, they have to like some of the other results that are rolling in. They continue with a relatively soft stretch right now, though the Gentry game is interesting, if only for the Stars’ relative lack of opponents like this.
This week: Tues vs. Gentry Academy, Thurs at Forest Lake

10. Centennial (8-4-1)
-Like conference rival Rogers, the Cougars showed they are who they are this past week, as they fell to Andover but got a pretty good win against Champlin Park. We’ll see if the meeting between those two does anything to change that assessment.
This week: Thurs at Armstrong/Cooper, Sat vs. #8 Rogers

11. St. Thomas (10-5)
-Beat Hill-Murray, but fell to Edina a second team, and with some other teams around them taking more dramatic tumbles, they ultimately do not move in the rankings. Now they’ll see what they can do with one of Class A’s best.
This week: Thurs at South St. Paul, Sat vs. Hermantown

12. White Bear Lake (11-2)
-The pros: the Bears have won seven in a row dating back to mid-December, and with Stillwater’s recent inconsistency and Hill’s ongoing troubles, the 4AA picture is looking bright. The con: not one of those games has come against anyone who’s even sniffing the top 25. Fortunately, the schedule does start to get a little more interesting this coming week, with Grand Rapids starting a run of five straight notable opponents.
This week: Wed vs. Woodbury, Thurs vs. Grand Rapids

13. Duluth East (8-6-1)
-Basically played to par with a steady win over Brainerd and a reasonably competitive loss tom Minnetonka. It’s now rivalry week for the Hounds, as they face Denfeld in a game that has some baggage from the events of a season ago and a section rival trying to prove it can be a factor.
This week: Tues vs. Duluth Denfeld, Sat at Cloquet

14. Lakeville South (6-4-1)
-Tough to know what to make of this team after a loss to Rosemount. Prior Lake and Delano this week are the ones they need to win to remain a bona fide contender for anything more than a 1AA title.
This week: Mon at Eagan, Tues at Prior Lake, Thurs vs. Delano

15. Shakopee (9-3)
-The Sabers are moving up the table as they rattle off wins, mostly against mid-tier competition, and make their top 15 debut. Things get interesting three teams in a tier just below them here; a strong week would prove they belong up here.
This week: Mon at Eastview, Thurs vs. Gentry Academy, Sat at Lakeville North

The Next Ten

Holy Family (9-5)
-The Fire got an important section win over Eden Prairie, which also stabilizes some things after a rough road trip north. Their schedule is pretty easy from here on out, so they could go on a decent run; Hutchinson and Blaine are up this week.

Blake (9-4)
-Quietly edging up as they take care of business against lesser opponents. Stillwater will be a good barometer this week, and they also have an okay Sartell team up.

Champlin Park (10-4)
-A couple reality checks for the Rebels this past week as they fell to Centennial and Rogers, leaving them in 4-seed position in 5AA for the time being. Still, they are competitive, and the chances to prove something keep coming this week against Benilde and Maple Grove.

Grand Rapids (10-5)
-The Thunderhawks got back to the established, low-scoring formula this past week and pulled out a quality win in Moorhead. A win over Cloquet this week should seal up a top three seed, and a weekend against White Bear and Hill will tell us a bit about them against the rest of the state.

Moorhead (7-7)
-Slipping further and further out of the conversation after a loss to Grand Rapids; they’ve really lacked much scoring punch in these big games. After a Fargo opponent, they head across the state to visit Hermantown, followed by a section game against a Brainerd team that has at least shown it can hang around from time to time.

Stillwater (8-4-1)
-The Ponies went skidding off a cliff this past week with losses to Roseville and Mounds View. They have enough quality results to keep from getting pitched all together, but there’s definitely some work to do here. Hill and Blake this week will be telling.

Eastview (8-5)
-Suffered three straight shutout losses before recovering with a win against Apple Valley/Burnsville. Losing to Minnetonka like that is one thing; losing to Rosemount and Lakeville North is another. Shakopee this week offers a chance to regain some ground.

Eden Prairie (6-8-1)
-Of the limping great powers, I’ve decided to keep the Eagles around, mostly because PageStat likes them. The firepower is certainly there, but they just haven’t been consistent enough. Mahtomedi is up first this week, then we’ll see if they can do anything against Minnetonka.

Roseau (10-5)
-The Rams were no match for the Warroad attack, but took care of Brainerd, and with Moorhead on the backslide, they are starting to look a little more interesting. Their next four games, all against quality opponents, will say a lot; they’ve got East Grand Forks and then top-ranked Wayzata this week.

Gentry Academy (9-4)
-Starting to amass a decent record, with the usual caveats about their schedule. Cretin and Shakopee this week should help tell us how real this all is.

It’s time for another tour of the sections, where things are getting a little clearer, mostly.

1AA
14 Lakeville South
Lakeville North
Hastings
Rochester Mayo
-South has slid out of the top ten, while North is putting out a couple of respectable results, so the possibility for a section final upset lingers. Hastings is doing enough to be the 3-seed, and while Mayo’s loss to lowly John Marshall this past week is a big red flag that leaves them vulnerable, they do still have the Hastings tie, so I’ll keep them at four for now, pending this week’s clash with Century.

2AA
4 Chanhassen
2 Minnetonka
15 Shakopee
16 Holy Family
23 Eden Prairie
-This one has actually grown clearer over the past two weeks. Shakopee’s claim to the 3-seed is getting stronger and stronger, and if they don’t lose one of two remaining meetings with Prior Lake, the Sabers can lock it up. With the win over Eden Prairie, Holy Family is also looking good for the 4-seed now, owning wins over the Eagles and Prior Lake, but having lost to Shakopee, and with zero section games left. The leaves us with an Eden Prairie, Prior Lake, and Chaska transitive property death loop for the next three spots. I think Eden Prairie has done enough to probably be the 5-seed, but there are still a lot of games left here, most notably those two between Prior Lake and Shakopee and the Lake Conference tilts. So, we’ll see how well this all holds up.

3AA
9 Cretin-Derham Hall
11 St. Thomas Academy
Rosemount
22 Eastview
-The top spot still comes down to final record after the split ,and Cretin is looking somewhat the better team there at the moment. After that it’s gotten a little more interesting, with Eastview tumbling and Rosemount proving it can be pesky and collecting a couple of nice wins, though the record still needs some work for them to get into the top 25. That looks to be the pretty clear top four unless Park of Cottage Grove can back up a respectable record with quality wins.

4AA
21 Stillwater
12 White Bear Lake
25 Gentry Academy
Hill-Murray
-Year over year this is usually one of the more straightforward sections, but this time around it may be the murkiest of them all. White Bear is the one team that is unquestionably rolling, but they lost their one section game of note early on; they have more upcoming, including a big rivalry that happens to be outdoors. Stillwater has the White Bear win but now has a section loss to Roseville. Gentry has a nice record but doesn’t play a single section game. Roseville and Woodbury are putting together respectable seasons and should be seriously in the 4/5 conversation, but have both lost to East Ridge, who has not done anything else really notable. And then Hill is Hill, with a poor record, but still the team no one will want to play in a semifinal…or even a quarterfinal. For now I’m going to shrug, respect that Stillwater win over White Bear, and go in ranking order from there, but your guess is as good as mine.

5AA
3 Maple Grove
8 Rogers
10 Centennial
18 Champlin Park
-It all makes sense…for now, anyway. Champlin plays Maple Grove and Centennial over the next two weeks, giving the Rebels their final couple of opportunities to change their fate; the Centennial-Rogers game this week, meanwhile, will tell us something about the race for the 2-seed. Stay tuned.

6AA
1 Wayzata
5 Edina
7 Benilde-St. Margaret’s
17 Blake
-As long as Wayzata can win one of two against Edina, the top three probably aren’t changing here. Blake can sew up the 4-seed with a win over Holy Angels next week; a loss may kick it to St. Louis Park, who has beaten the Stars.

7AA
6 Andover
13 Duluth East
19 Grand Rapids
Coon Rapids
-The only real question at the moment is whether Duluth East’s win over Andover supersedes Andover’s tougher schedule and thus its somewhat stronger body of work. For the moment, I say yes, though there is time for both teams to change that down the stretch. Rapids is probably set at 3 unless they beat Andover or really tail off. Coon Rapids may have grabbed home ice in the likely 4/5 matchup by beating Cloquet this past week.

8AA
20 Moorhead
24 Roseau
Sartell
St. Cloud
-Like 1AA, this section has a clear frontrunner that has been tailing lately, though the chase pack is noticeably closer here. Roseau continues to solidify its hold on the 2-seed with more wins. After that? Well, Sartell has a loss to Brainerd but has beaten Bemidji and St. Cloud, so I’m comfortable giving them the 3-seed at the moment. Bemidji is on a nice little roll right now, but has losses to St. Cloud and Sartell; if they can avenge the St. Cloud loss in this week’s meeting, they can slide into 4-seed position. Elk River has a Roseau win, but losses to Brainerd and Bemidji, while Brainerd has Elk River and Sartell wins to go with losses to Buffalo and St. Cloud. There’s so much hockey left to be played here that I won’t speculate too much further, and will just say that this is where, in my eyes, we stand today.

[armhockey]

8AA
20 Moorhead
24 Roseau
Sartell
St. Cloud
-Like 1AA, this section has a clear frontrunner that has been tailing lately, though the chase pack is noticeably closer here. Roseau continues to solidify its hold on the 2-seed with more wins. After that? Well, Sartell has a loss to Brainerd but has beaten Bemidji and St. Cloud, so I’m comfortable giving them the 3-seed at the moment. Bemidji is on a nice little roll right now, but has losses to St. Cloud and Sartell; if they can avenge the St. Cloud loss in this week’s meeting, they can slide into 4-seed position. Elk River has a Roseau win, but losses to Brainerd and Bemidji, while Brainerd has Elk River and Sartell wins to go with losses to Buffalo and St. Cloud. There’s so much hockey left to be played here that I won’t speculate too much further, and will just say that this is where, in my eyes, we stand today.

St. Cloud just loss to a bad Breck team and also has loss to a below average Cathedral Team. I don't see them as a top 4. Elk River or Buffalo would be better options at the 4

[raidergrad72]

You posted just in the nick of time Karl! Elliot was about to take oxygen if you didn't get it in today, but he probably did anyway after watching the usual Viking cave-in.

[elliott70]

QRF Section 8AA top 4
Moorhead
Roseau
Sartell-St. Stephen
Elk River/Zimmerman

pagestat
1 MOORHEAD
2 ROSEAU
3 BEMIDJI
4 BUFFALO

[elliott70]

QRF
Andover
Grand Rapids
C-E-C
Duluth East

page stat
1 ANDOVER
2 DULUTH EAST
3 GRAND RAPIDS
4 CLOQUET