2003-04 Illinois Ratings
Last Updated 3-19-04
Teams listed W-L-T record reflects only games whose score is listed on the
2003-2004 Illinois HS Scores page (sorted first by team name and then by date)
The program starts all teams with an equal arbitrary value and then
adjusts them all recursively based on game scores until the lowest cumulative
error between expected goal differentials and actual goal differentials is
reached (convergence).
The Total column is in goal units and the difference in this value between
any two teams is the predicted goal differential for a game played at a
neutral site between those two teams. It should be noted that due to goal
differential limits set in the ranking program these predicted goal differentials
are only accurate when comparing teams ranked within three goals of each other.
The differential between teams ranked farther apart becomes more and more
understated as the chosen teams become farther apart in the rankings.
A teams Total value only has meaning
in relation to other teams in the same list (i.e. Totals cannot be compared
from one week to the next or directly to a ratings list for another state).
The Last 5 column is a simple average performance of that team in the last five
games based on current opponent Total values and goal differential (up to max allowed).
Obviously, the fewer games a team's ranking is based upon the less likely
that ranking is to be accurate.
Links to other ratings:
CT IA IL IN MA MD MD-VA MI MN MN-WI-ND MO ND Northeast NH NJ NY WNY Club OH PA-E PA-W1A PA-W2A PA-W3A
RI VA VT WI wWI USA Midget AAA Men's NCAA D1
Back to US HS Hockey Online main page.
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More information about how the ratings are calculated and their past
accuracy can be found here .
As of 2/21/04 all state rankings are calculated interdependently. This allows interstate opponents to be given
their proper weight. Also, games between teams ranked more than 5 goals apart are no longer used when
calculating the rankings.
As of 3/4/04 there are now two rankings listed. The first is the standard Goal Diff Limit = 4 ranking and
the second is a GDL=1 ranking. The GDL1 ranking has proven to be the most accurate for college and junior teams
but is yet unproven at other levels, especially for those rankings in which many teams are missing many scores.
The Totals column takes on a different meaning in the GDL1 ranking, see the D1 College rankings for details.
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RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5
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1,Fenwick,IL,_________________________ 54 9 2, 2.2, 8.5, 10.69, 11.25
2,New Trier Green,IL,_________________ 46 14 3, 1.4, 9.2, 10.54, 10.72
3,Loyola Gold,IL,_____________________ 29 15 2, 0.8, 8.5, 9.38, 9.90
4,Bartlett,IL,________________________ 9 5 1, 0.6, 8.6, 9.21, 8.69
5,Glenbrook South,IL,_________________ 22 6 5, 1.3, 7.8, 9.02, 8.90
6,Naperville Central,IL,______________ 35 18 4, 1.0, 7.8, 8.75, 9.96
7,Rockford,IL,________________________ 1 3 0, -0.3, 8.9, 8.67
8,Glenbrook North,IL,_________________ 29 13 4, 0.7, 7.9, 8.62, 8.89
9,Lake Forest Academy,IL,_____________ 3 7 2, -1.4, 10.0, 8.61, 8.28
10,Stevenson,IL,_______________________ 19 11 3, 0.6, 7.6, 8.19, 8.38
11,Brother Rice,IL,____________________ 2 6 0, -1.5, 9.4, 7.95
12,Lake Forest HS,IL,__________________ 12 16 2, 0.1, 7.8, 7.94, 8.06
13,Barrington,IL,______________________ 13 13 4, 0.1, 7.7, 7.78, 8.00
14,New Trier Blue,IL,__________________ 13 14 5, 0.1, 7.6, 7.72, 8.97
15,Sandburg,IL,________________________ 2 10 2, -1.6, 9.4, 7.71, 7.73
16,Marist Red,IL,______________________ 1 13 1, -1.9, 9.6, 7.71, 7.48
17,Neuqua Valley,IL,___________________ 1 8 1, -1.6, 9.2, 7.65, 7.39
18,Mt. Carmel,IL,______________________ 2 14 0, -2.1, 9.5, 7.45, 7.71
19,Deerfield,IL,_______________________ 15 12 0, 0.2, 7.1, 7.36, 6.59
20,Highland Park,IL,___________________ 9 10 4, 0.3, 6.7, 6.96, 6.09
21,Providence,IL,______________________ 0 7 0, -2.9, 9.6, 6.79
22,St. Viator,IL,______________________ 7 15 2, -0.8, 7.2, 6.35, 6.42
23,St. Laurence,IL,____________________ 0 4 0, -3.7, 10.0, 6.29
24,St. Rita,IL,________________________ 0 6 0, -4.0, 10.3, 6.26
25,Naperville North,IL,________________ 0 3 1, -2.2, 8.4, 6.16
26,New Trier White,IL,_________________ 7 15 2, -0.7, 6.8, 6.08, 5.84
27,Montini,IL,_________________________ 0 4 0, -4.0, 10.0, 6.04
28,Waubonsie Valley,IL,________________ 0 5 0, -3.4, 9.1, 5.71
29,Fenwick II,IL,______________________ 1 4 0, -2.4, 8.1, 5.66
30,Homewood Flossmoor,IL,______________ 1 4 0, -2.4, 7.9, 5.51
31,Oak Park,IL,________________________ 0 3 0, -3.3, 8.8, 5.42
32,Lake Zurich,IL,_____________________ 0 3 0, -2.7, 7.4, 4.76
33,Loyola Maroon,IL,___________________ 2 21 1, -2.7, 7.2, 4.47, 4.40
34,Evanston,IL,________________________ 0 21 0, -3.5, 6.7, 3.21, 2.74
RANK TEAM W L T GmPerf Sched Total Last 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1,Fenwick,IL,_________________________ 54 9 2, 0.7, 7.3, 7.98, 8.15
2,New Trier Green,IL,_________________ 46 14 3, 0.5, 7.4, 7.94, 7.92
3,Loyola Gold,IL,_____________________ 29 15 2, 0.3, 7.3, 7.62, 7.96
4,Bartlett,IL,________________________ 9 5 1, 0.3, 7.3, 7.57, 7.40
5,Lake Forest Academy,IL,_____________ 3 7 2, -0.3, 7.8, 7.46, 7.12
6,Glenbrook South,IL,_________________ 22 6 5, 0.5, 7.0, 7.46, 7.42
7,Glenbrook North,IL,_________________ 29 13 4, 0.3, 7.0, 7.35, 7.53
8,Naperville Central,IL,______________ 35 18 4, 0.3, 7.0, 7.33, 7.75
9,Stevenson,IL,_______________________ 19 11 3, 0.2, 7.0, 7.20, 7.18
10,Brother Rice,IL,____________________ 2 6 0, -0.5, 7.6, 7.10
11,Barrington,IL,______________________ 13 13 4, 0.0, 7.0, 7.03, 7.18
12,Sandburg,IL,________________________ 2 10 2, -0.6, 7.6, 6.99, 6.84
13,New Trier Blue,IL,__________________ 13 14 5, -0.0, 7.0, 6.92, 7.33
14,Rockford,IL,________________________ 1 3 0, -0.5, 7.4, 6.91
15,Deerfield,IL,_______________________ 15 12 0, 0.1, 6.8, 6.91, 7.00
16,Lake Forest HS,IL,__________________ 12 16 2, -0.1, 7.0, 6.91, 6.72
17,St. Rita,IL,________________________ 0 6 0, -1.0, 7.9, 6.86
18,Marist Red,IL,______________________ 1 13 1, -0.8, 7.7, 6.85, 6.73
19,Mt. Carmel,IL,______________________ 2 14 0, -0.8, 7.6, 6.83, 6.73
20,Neuqua Valley,IL,___________________ 1 8 1, -0.7, 7.5, 6.83, 6.67
21,St. Laurence,IL,____________________ 0 4 0, -1.0, 7.8, 6.80
22,Montini,IL,_________________________ 0 4 0, -1.0, 7.8, 6.80
23,Providence,IL,______________________ 0 7 0, -1.0, 7.7, 6.69
24,Highland Park,IL,___________________ 9 10 4, -0.0, 6.7, 6.63, 6.47
25,St. Viator,IL,______________________ 7 15 2, -0.3, 6.8, 6.49, 6.52
26,Homewood Flossmoor,IL,______________ 1 4 0, -0.6, 7.1, 6.48
27,Naperville North,IL,________________ 0 3 1, -0.8, 7.2, 6.47
28,Waubonsie Valley,IL,________________ 0 5 0, -1.0, 7.5, 6.45
29,Fenwick II,IL,______________________ 1 4 0, -0.6, 7.0, 6.40
30,New Trier White,IL,_________________ 7 15 2, -0.3, 6.7, 6.36, 6.51
31,Oak Park,IL,________________________ 0 3 0, -1.0, 7.3, 6.33
32,Lake Zurich,IL,_____________________ 0 3 0, -1.0, 7.0, 6.04
33,Loyola Maroon,IL,___________________ 2 21 1, -0.8, 6.8, 6.00, 5.91
34,Evanston,IL,________________________ 0 21 0, -1.0, 6.6, 5.63, 5.52