AA Rankings for 1/17/09

[CB00]

Duluth East at 8? This is the only ranking on the web that has them even in the top 10. The next highest I see the Hounds is 12 at LPH. Every other site even lower. How can you justify a eight spot? Com' on Karl, if you want to be legit, don't be a homer.

If the Hounds lose to ER keep them at 8, good loss

I talked about East at length last week, and the same arguments apply. I have nothing to gain from ranking East higher than where the record says they belong.

Of course they will go tumbling if they lose to ER.

But Karl, their record doesn't justify a 8th spot. Jefferson and Eagan have only two lossses. I do understand Eagan took a lickin' this week by EP, but didn't DE take a lickin' from Edina?

[karl(east)]

Duluth East at 8? This is the only ranking on the web that has them even in the top 10. The next highest I see the Hounds is 12 at LPH. Every other site even lower. How can you justify a eight spot? Com' on Karl, if you want to be legit, don't be a homer.

If the Hounds lose to ER keep them at 8, good loss

I talked about East at length last week, and the same arguments apply. I have nothing to gain from ranking East higher than where the record says they belong.

Of course they will go tumbling if they lose to ER.

But Karl, their record doesn't justify a 8th spot. Jefferson and Eagan have only two lossses. I do understand Eagan took a lickin' this week by EP, but didn't DE take a lickin' from Edina?

East's quality wins: AHA (13), MG (14), Cent. (17); plus decent ones over WBL and GR, teams who have beaten other top teams.
Losses: all to teams in the top 5. One was a blowout (Hill). Two were close into the 3rd but came apart from there; one went to OT.
Ties: One that helps (Blaine, 6), one that doesn't (Moorhead).
Suggested range: between 6 and 13.

Eagan's quality wins: Jefferson (10), AV (18), LVS (19).
Losses: USOT (not really factored in, though do remember that MN teams have beaten them in the past), and EP; a complete blowout.
Tie: Burnsville (16--a bit of a drag).
Suggested range: between 6 and 16.

Jefferson's quality wins: Wayzata (6), MG (14), Centennial (17), AV (18), LVS (19). Also a decent one against Moorhead.
Losses: Eagan (9), LVN (not top 25; maybe not top 30)
Ties: Burnsville (16), Centennial (17). Neither one helps.
Suggested range: practically anywhere, with the great win and bad loss.

Well I agree that isn't necessarily compelling evidence that East is better than Eagan or Jefferson, it is in no way compelling that they're worse.

But traditionally, I reward 1) strong schedules, and 2) consistency. I've been very consistent in this approach since I started ranking. Last year, for example, I stuck by Edina over Jefferson most of the year, even though Jefferson had a nicer record. I also dropped teams with gaudy records but inconsistent results, like Woodbury.

East's schedule is stronger than Eagan's. If Eagan were to play a few other elite teams and play them close, sure they can go higher. They've both beaten all the teams behind them, with one tie-exception for each. We know East can stay reasonably close with the elite teams; we don't know that about Eagan. I'll take the safer pick there.

Jefferson, on the other hand, has been inconsistent; while East has been one of the more reliable teams in the state in terms of losing to teams ahead of them and beating teams behind them. Based on what we've seen so far, if each team were to play one a few spots below them, East would probably win by 1 or 2, while Jefferson might a) beat them by six, or b) lose or tie. Again, I'd go with the safer choice there.

[CB00]

I talked about East at length last week, and the same arguments apply. I have nothing to gain from ranking East higher than where the record says they belong.

Of course they will go tumbling if they lose to ER.

But Karl, their record doesn't justify a 8th spot. Jefferson and Eagan have only two lossses. I do understand Eagan took a lickin' this week by EP, but didn't DE take a lickin' from Edina?

East's quality wins: AHA (13), MG (14), Cent. (17); plus decent ones over WBL and GR, teams who have beaten other top teams.
Losses: all to teams in the top 5. One was a blowout (Hill). Two were close into the 3rd but came apart from there; one went to OT.
Ties: One that helps (Blaine, 6), one that doesn't (Moorhead).
Suggested range: between 6 and 13.

Eagan's quality wins: Jefferson (10), AV (18), LVS (19).
Losses: USOT (not really factored in, though do remember that MN teams have beaten them in the past), and EP; a complete blowout.
Tie: Burnsville (16--a bit of a drag).
Suggested range: between 6 and 16.

Jefferson's quality wins: Wayzata (6), MG (14), Centennial (17), AV (18), LVS (19). Also a decent one against Moorhead.
Losses: Eagan (9), LVN (not top 25; maybe not top 30)
Ties: Burnsville (16), Centennial (17). Neither one helps.
Suggested range: practically anywhere, with the great win and bad loss.

Well I agree that isn't necessarily compelling evidence that East is better than Eagan or Jefferson, it is in no way compelling that they're worse.

But traditionally, I reward 1) strong schedules, and 2) consistency. I've been very consistent in this approach since I started ranking. Last year, for example, I stuck by Edina over Jefferson most of the year, even though Jefferson had a nicer record. I also dropped teams with gaudy records but inconsistent results, like Woodbury.

East's schedule is stronger than Eagan's. If Eagan were to play a few other elite teams and play them close, sure they can go higher. They've both beaten all the teams behind them, with one tie-exception for each. We know East can stay reasonably close with the elite teams; we don't know that about Eagan. I'll take the safer pick there.

Jefferson, on the other hand, has been inconsistent; while East has been one of the more reliable teams in the state in terms of losing to teams ahead of them and beating teams behind them. Based on what we've seen so far, if each team were to play one a few spots below them, East would probably win by 1 or 2, while Jefferson might a) beat them by six, or b) lose or tie. Again, I'd go with the safer choice there.

Elk River beats #8 Duluth East Nuff said

[karl(east)]

Elk River beats #8 Duluth East Nuff said

Doesn't shock me at all. I had ER 6 spots ahead of East in the preseason rankings for a reason.

The objective-ranking-issuing side of my brain is almost happy they lost this game, since I think next week's rankings will more accurately reflect where East belongs in the state picture. But I have a system, and I'm sticking by it.

[HockeyMN1]

If Edina loses either game this week will EP bump up to 2 with their two convincing wins and a great confidence building week for the team?

[karl(east)]

If Edina loses either game this week will EP bump up to 2 with their two convincing wins and a great confidence building week for the team?

I won't say it's an absolute, but the odds would be pretty good.

I really like what I see out of EP right now.

[BSMHockeyrules]

Karl

I have been watching and I think you have not given my Red Knights enough credit. So here are my two cents on behalf of my team, but it is all objective.

If you take your teams 5-12 (Wayzata -AHA) and compare thier recrods against the top 12 teams (Mtka-AHA) you get the following records.

Team games v. Top 12 record %of possible points earned

BSM 4 1-1-2 50%
Eagan 2 1-1 50%
Blaine 6 2-3-1 42%
Blom Jeff 3 1-2 40%
Wayz 4 1-2-1 37.5%
Dul East 5 1-3-1 30%
Osseo 4 0-2-2 25%
AHA 4 0-3-1 12.5%

The strength of schedule is about even at 3-5 quality games (except Eagan and East) There is a clear winning percentage gap between the top five and bottom 3.

Among the top five above, BSM beat Wayzata; Jeff beat Wayzata and Eagan beat Jeff. Blaine has not played these, but has played well against the top 4 teams. Blaine should be at the top of this list (no. 5 overall)

Wayzata should be behind BSM and Jeff, based both on head to head losses and on above results against top 12 teams. Jeff should be behind Eagan for the same reasons. Tough to cmpare Eagan and BSM, but if Jeff is ahead of Wayzata, then Eagan's win over Jeff is better than BSM's win over Wayzata. (the wildcard is that with Eagan having only two strong games, their winnign % would change a lot if the next one is a win or loss)

So my take on nos 5-12:

5. Blaine
6. Eagan
7. BSM
8. Jeff
9. Wayzata
10. Duluth East
11. Osseo
12. AHA

[HappyHockeyFan]

Karl

I have been watching and I think you have not given my Red Knights enough credit. So here are my two cents on behalf of my team, but it is all objective.

If you take your teams 5-12 (Wayzata -AHA) and compare thier recrods against the top 12 teams (Mtka-AHA) you get the following records.

Team games v. Top 12 record %of possible points earned

BSM 4 1-1-2 50%
Eagan 2 1-1 50%
Blaine 6 2-3-1 42%
Blom Jeff 3 1-2 40%
Wayz 4 1-2-1 37.5%
Dul East 5 1-3-1 30%
Osseo 4 0-2-2 25%
AHA 4 0-3-1 12.5%

The strength of schedule is about even at 3-5 quality games (except Eagan and East) There is a clear winning percentage gap between the top five and bottom 3.

Among the top five above, BSM beat Wayzata; Jeff beat Wayzata and Eagan beat Jeff. Blaine has not played these, but has played well against the top 4 teams. Blaine should be at the top of this list (no. 5 overall)

Wayzata should be behind BSM and Jeff, based both on head to head losses and on above results against top 12 teams. Jeff should be behind Eagan for the same reasons. Tough to cmpare Eagan and BSM, but if Jeff is ahead of Wayzata, then Eagan's win over Jeff is better than BSM's win over Wayzata. (the wildcard is that with Eagan having only two strong games, their winnign % would change a lot if the next one is a win or loss)

So my take on nos 5-12:

5. Blaine
6. Eagan
7. BSM
8. Jeff
9. Wayzata
10. Duluth East
11. Osseo
12. AHA

Alot of effort put into your argument...nice.. I would agree with you even though it feels like Wayzata should be higher.

[karl(east)]

Karl

I have been watching and I think you have not given my Red Knights enough credit. So here are my two cents on behalf of my team, but it is all objective.

If you take your teams 5-12 (Wayzata -AHA) and compare thier recrods against the top 12 teams (Mtka-AHA) you get the following records.

Team games v. Top 12 record %of possible points earned

BSM 4 1-1-2 50%
Eagan 2 1-1 50%
Blaine 6 2-3-1 42%
Blom Jeff 3 1-2 40%
Wayz 4 1-2-1 37.5%
Dul East 5 1-3-1 30%
Osseo 4 0-2-2 25%
AHA 4 0-3-1 12.5%

The strength of schedule is about even at 3-5 quality games (except Eagan and East) There is a clear winning percentage gap between the top five and bottom 3.

Among the top five above, BSM beat Wayzata; Jeff beat Wayzata and Eagan beat Jeff. Blaine has not played these, but has played well against the top 4 teams. Blaine should be at the top of this list (no. 5 overall)

Wayzata should be behind BSM and Jeff, based both on head to head losses and on above results against top 12 teams. Jeff should be behind Eagan for the same reasons. Tough to cmpare Eagan and BSM, but if Jeff is ahead of Wayzata, then Eagan's win over Jeff is better than BSM's win over Wayzata. (the wildcard is that with Eagan having only two strong games, their winnign % would change a lot if the next one is a win or loss)

So my take on nos 5-12:

5. Blaine
6. Eagan
7. BSM
8. Jeff
9. Wayzata
10. Duluth East
11. Osseo
12. AHA

Thanks for putting in some nice work. The reason the Red Knights were a bit lower had to do with the losses more than the wins...a number of the teams around them in the rankings beat Centennial, and the Cretin loss doesn't look great right now either, as the Raiders continue to tank.

But last night's tie against Osseo was legit, and with East losing last night, BSM is in great position to move up next week. How far up? It'll depend on some of the results around the Lake and Classic Lake this week, and what Osseo does against two good NWSC teams.

[schwang17]

Karl

I have been watching and I think you have not given my Red Knights enough credit. So here are my two cents on behalf of my team, but it is all objective.

If you take your teams 5-12 (Wayzata -AHA) and compare thier recrods against the top 12 teams (Mtka-AHA) you get the following records.

Team games v. Top 12 record %of possible points earned

BSM 4 1-1-2 50%
Eagan 2 1-1 50%
Blaine 6 2-3-1 42%
Blom Jeff 3 1-2 40%
Wayz 4 1-2-1 37.5%
Dul East 5 1-3-1 30%
Osseo 4 0-2-2 25%
AHA 4 0-3-1 12.5%

The strength of schedule is about even at 3-5 quality games (except Eagan and East) There is a clear winning percentage gap between the top five and bottom 3.

Among the top five above, BSM beat Wayzata; Jeff beat Wayzata and Eagan beat Jeff. Blaine has not played these, but has played well against the top 4 teams. Blaine should be at the top of this list (no. 5 overall)

Wayzata should be behind BSM and Jeff, based both on head to head losses and on above results against top 12 teams. Jeff should be behind Eagan for the same reasons. Tough to cmpare Eagan and BSM, but if Jeff is ahead of Wayzata, then Eagan's win over Jeff is better than BSM's win over Wayzata. (the wildcard is that with Eagan having only two strong games, their winnign % would change a lot if the next one is a win or loss)

So my take on nos 5-12:

5. Blaine
6. Eagan
7. BSM
8. Jeff
9. Wayzata
10. Duluth East
11. Osseo
12. AHA

Here is my top 15:

1. Tonka
2. EP
3. Edina
4. Hill
5. Blaine
6. Jefferson
7. Wayzata
8. Eagan
9. BSM
10. East
11. Osseo
12. Elk River
13. Burnsville
14. AHA
15. Roseau

Hack away, Karl. Just don't cross the line.

[karl(east)]

Here is my top 15:

1. Tonka
2. EP
3. Edina
4. Hill
5. Blaine
6. Jefferson
7. Wayzata
8. Eagan
9. BSM
10. East
11. Osseo
12. Elk River
13. Burnsville
14. AHA
15. Roseau

Hack away, Karl. Just don't cross the line.

I am shocked, simply shocked, that you have Jefferson as high as #6.

Not bad, though. I might like to get MG in there somewhere, and East will be lower than 10, I think. And with Roseau, who really knows?

I'll let you know what I really think on Saturday night/Sunday morning. There's a reason I only do this once a week.

[toptitty96]

[/quote]

Here is my top 15:

1. Tonka
2. EP
3. Edina
4. Hill
5. Blaine
6. Jefferson
7. Wayzata
8. Eagan
9. BSM
10. East
11. Osseo
12. Elk River
13. Burnsville
14. AHA
15. Roseau

Hack away, Karl. Just don't cross the line. [/quote]

Very good rankings. No explanations, but that's okay. Top 12 are just about perfect. I would maybe switch Burnsville and Roseau or sneak MG or AV in there. AHA MAYBE a little higher, but who knows with them.

[schwang17]

Here is my top 15:

1. Tonka
2. EP
3. Edina
4. Hill
5. Blaine
6. Jefferson
7. Wayzata
8. Eagan
9. BSM
10. East
11. Osseo
12. Elk River
13. Burnsville
14. AHA
15. Roseau

Hack away, Karl. Just don't cross the line.

I am shocked, simply shocked, that you have Jefferson as high as #6.

Not bad, though. I might like to get MG in there somewhere, and East will be lower than 10, I think. And with Roseau, who really knows?

I'll let you know what I really think on Saturday night/Sunday morning. There's a reason I only do this once a week.

Jefferson should beat every team below #6 that's why I put them there. However, the only thing that matters is can they beat AHA and Edina when it matters.

East may drop a bit, but I think they're a state tourney team so we'll see how they measure up then. I think they're close to where they should be. Same goes with Roseau. Warroad beat them in their own barn last week - MG might be better.

IMO, Tonka and EP have really distinguished themselves as the states 2 best teams.

[shakey]

If Edina loses either game this week will EP bump up to 2 with their two convincing wins and a great confidence building week for the team?

Be careful with your enthusiasm. You do not want to start sounding like our Eagan friend.

[HShockeywatcher]

Curious why Hill is above Blaine being that they lost head to head, Hill tied BSM and Blaine's only losses are to top 3 teams.

Regardless of what you think of what will happen in future games, especially after the Lakeville North loss, Eagan should be ahead of Jefferson.
-Jefferson is probably a pretty good team, but there is one win on their schedule convincing of them being a top 10 team (win over Wayzata), one game convincing of them not being a top 10 team (loss to Lakeville North) and then the rest either wins or ties to mediocre teams.
-Eagan has only lost to a top 3 team, but got taken apart by them and also has only wins against mediocre competition. With the Eden Prairie loss being by so much they could drop farther with a bad loss or great wins by others.

I have no affiliation with either team/community, simply looking at who the teams have actually played, not who they are. Last year most had Jefferson ranked as a top 3 team, they got the #1 seed they didn't deserve and got taken apart in sections. This year they have done even worse with the same schedule, and are getting ranked above a team who beat them. That is history and nothing else.

With the exception of the Edina win the second game of the season, Wayzata has really done nothing, including losing to Benilde and Jefferson. I'd move Osseo up.

In my opinion:
1. Tonka
2. Eden Prairie
3. Edina
4. Blaine
5. Hill Murray
6. Eagan
7. Osseo

The rest

There is a big group of 10-15 teams in "the rest" with losses to each other and really no definitive "best." If Holy Angels, Wayzata or Andover win tonight, I would add them to the list.

It is really hard to say anyone is wrong in their justification for anyone over anyone else beyond these teams, in my opinion.

[Slap Shot]

Curious why Hill is above Blaine being that they lost head to head, Hill tied BSM and Blaine's only losses are to top 3 teams.

[karl(east)]

Curious why Hill is above Blaine being that they lost head to head, Hill tied BSM and Blaine's only losses are to top 3 teams.

If you mention the Hill tie against BSM, you have to mention the Blaine ties against DE, Cent, and MG--all very recent results against teams that I would argue are behind BSM. For me, that was enough to tip the scales. For now, at least.

While I don't necessarily disagree, I am curious why you argue that Blaine should be ahead of Hill and Eagan should be ahead of Jefferson due to head-to-head results, but have EP ahead of Edina when Edina beat them.

[BodyShots]

Curious why Hill is above Blaine being that they lost head to head, Hill tied BSM and Blaine's only losses are to top 3 teams.

If you mention the Hill tie against BSM, you have to mention the Blaine ties against DE, Cent, and MG--all very recent results against teams that I would argue are behind BSM. For me, that was enough to tip the scales. For now, at least.

While I don't necessarily disagree, I am curious why you argue that Blaine should be ahead of Hill and Eagan should be ahead of Jefferson due to head-to-head results, but have EP ahead of Edina when Edina beat them.

Yeah, I second that thought.

[HShockeywatcher]

Curious why Hill is above Blaine being that they lost head to head, Hill tied BSM and Blaine's only losses are to top 3 teams.

If you mention the Hill tie against BSM, you have to mention the Blaine ties against DE, Cent, and MG--all very recent results against teams that I would argue are behind BSM. For me, that was enough to tip the scales. For now, at least.

While I don't necessarily disagree, I am curious why you argue that Blaine should be ahead of Hill and Eagan should be ahead of Jefferson due to head-to-head results, but have EP ahead of Edina when Edina beat them.

Unless a tie is to a terrible team, I wouldn't hold it against a team. BSM, DE, Cent and MG are all nestled in that "the rest" bubble beyond my top 7.

Edina lost to Wayzata, but I do agree the head to head win should move them up. Also, if you look at Eden Prairie's schedule closer, while they have lost to the #1 and #2 teams by 1 and 2 goals respectively, they have beaten one top team (who also hasn't beaten one bubble team and no one else) and one bubble team. Their game against East will be good. But being defending champs, I don't think Blaine has done anything to justify being higher.

In my opinion:
1. Tonka
2. Edina
3. Eden Prairie
4. Blaine
5. Hill Murray
6. Eagan
7. Osseo

[northwoods oldtimer]

No way Eagan belongs that high with the cupcake schedule. You can put Andover in the 6th spot using your "fuzzy logic" 11-3-1 is 'raAndover' and I am going to start whining until they crack the top 10, got it? Osseo is ranked ahead of the Wildcats too, tougher schedule.

[HockeyMN1]

No way Eagan belongs that high with the cupcake schedule. You can put Andover in the 6th spot using your "fuzzy logic" 11-3-1 is 'raAndover' and I am going to start whining until they crack the top 10, got it? Osseo is ranked ahead of the Wildcats too, tougher schedule.

That guy's more of an Eagan homer than I am an EP homer Anyways, does Osseo play anybody good this year because I'd like to see how they stack up against tougher competition with that record.

[BodyShots]

[quote="HShockeywatcher

In my opinion:
1. Tonka
2. Edina
3. Eden Prairie
4. Blaine
5. Hill Murray
6. Eagan
7. Osseo[/quote]

It only took 5 hours for you to change your mind about Edina being ahead of EP. That wasn't very hard. Now is it right

[northwoods oldtimer]

Yes at 10-2-3 they (Osseo) have had games with:
Wayzata (4-4 tie)
Blaine (2-3 loss)
Warroad (3-4 loss)
Andover )4-2 win)
BSM (3-3 tie)
Elk River (3-3 tie)
Maple Grove (6-3 win)
....and pounding the cupcakes on their schedule by convincing margin. All Eagan has to hang HshockeyWatcher rep on is the big win over the JAGS which appears to be losing its luster just a bit. Impressive win - loss record but far lighter schedule than Osseo has posted to date IMHO. You have a right to be proud of EP they are cream of the crop along with tonka. Throttled Eagan by the way unless a certain poster forgets that is on the record.

[The51]

1. Minnetonka
2. Edina
3. Eden Prairie
4. Blaine
5. Hill - Murray
6. Wayzata
7. Jefferson
8. Osseo
9. Eagan
10. Elk River
11. Centenial
12. Duluth East
13. Benilde
14. Holy Angels
15. Burnsville

[HockeyMN1]

1. Minnetonka
2. Eden Prairie
3. Edina
4. Hill-Murray
5. Wayzata
6. Blaine
7. Jefferson
8. Osseo
9. Duluth East
10. Benilde
11. Holy Angles
12. Roseau
13. Burnsville
14. Eagan
15. Elk River