AA Rankings for 12/25/11 and Holiday Tourney Preview

[HShockeywatcher]

Moorhead is a +26 in goal differential against an average schedule (using PageStat) of 17.42. East is +49 against an average of 19.84.

It's not even close.

And in response to those who claim East has played a weak or even average schedule, they currently have played the 13th most difficult schedule in Minnesota (again, using PageStat). Almost exactly the same as Minnetonka and Elk River.

Now, you can cherry-pick whatever "evidence" you want to claim otherwise, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny.

Lee

Pre-holiday tournament 19.84 is about Centennial and 17.42 is about NSP.
So yes, very different, but that assumes that (a) the schedule determines the team and (b) teams are playing their top line skaters the whole time to run up the score.

A good team could play a bad schedule. Happens.
A coach can say "we're going to play in this tournament on our 7th game of the season where we need to make sure we have depth so for our first 6 games we're going to work on that. Biorg, you're a 4th liner, you're going to get more experience...Marty, you're a first liner, you're going to play a little less because won't need you as much, etc, etc" and as long as they still win, a win is a win. Or even if they don't win, the point is the same. In this case they did win. The margin of victory, on paper, means next to nothing. So, if they did win (which they did) and turned around and beat really good twice twice (which they didn't), who's to say how to compare those early games to determine who's better?

They didn't, so mute points.

I'm not cherry picking anything anymore than Lee is. He's come to the defense of his team (that isn't even needed cuz the Taters lost) with stats he has. After 7 games, SOS is a fraction of the story. Anyway, you're not wrong...but I wouldn't say someone putting MG at #1 after being BSM again is either.

When are the PageStat SOS rankings going to be available to the general public?

[HShockeywatcher]

not to mention if your ranked first in the preseason poll and your undefeated why would you move them down? unless there is a clear reason, which there is not

St Thomas was ranked #1 in Class A in the preseason poll, still undefeated in Class A and I have been told repeatedly they shouldn't be #1. It blows my mind too...

Moorhead is a +26 in goal differential against an average schedule (using PageStat) of 17.42. East is +49 against an average of 19.84.

It's not even close.

If I'm the #7 boxer, tennis player, cup stacker, whatever, you're #5 and I compete against #'s 4, 8, 9, 10, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104 and 105 because they're on my schedule and beat them, am I better or wors than you when you have beaten the #'s 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and 20 "players"?
The average rank I have beaten is 64.6 while the average rank you have beaten is 15.5...

[MrBoDangles]

Playing tough is one thing but at some point you need to start winning some of the games. there a clear 2,3 seed in section 5AA no where else for them to go assuming they can Handle Osseo this year which they should.

You're the only one thinking section seedings and tournament bids right now. I'm just thinking about how Centennial surprised a bunch of people this week.

Your name says it all.....

I think anyone can predict the top 4 seedings in section 5AA, not Rocket Science this year. I was impressed with the Cougars but would like to see them pull off a couple of these close games. they are a very solid team.

I agree

[karl(east)]

I'm not cherry picking anything anymore than Lee is. He's come to the defense of his team (that isn't even needed cuz the Taters lost) with stats he has. After 7 games, SOS is a fraction of the story. Anyway, you're not wrong...but I wouldn't say someone putting MG at #1 after being BSM again is either.

When are the PageStat SOS rankings going to be available to the general public?

On the contrary, I'd say using PS2 is the exact opposite of cherry-picking. It applies a systematic method to rating every team in the state and has a long track record of getting things more or less right. No, it doesn't tell the whole story (no existing system can), but it does tell a somewhat more convincing story than a suggestion that Team X may be better than Team Y because Team Y has not had a terribly difficult schedule (while making no mention of Team X's schedule), coupled with a series of vague hypotheticals that could be equally applied to both teams.

Human rankers can give these hypotheticals a bit more weight through observation--we can watch and see if one of the teams is perhaps more interested in rolling its lines and learning its systems early in the season than running up scores, or if a team has a key player or two out hurt, etc.

[HShockeywatcher]

I'm not cherry picking anything anymore than Lee is. He's come to the defense of his team (that isn't even needed cuz the Taters lost) with stats he has. After 7 games, SOS is a fraction of the story. Anyway, you're not wrong...but I wouldn't say someone putting MG at #1 after being BSM again is either.

When are the PageStat SOS rankings going to be available to the general public?

On the contrary, I'd say using PS2 is the exact opposite of cherry-picking. It applies a systematic method to rating every team in the state and has a long track record of getting things more or less right. No, it doesn't tell the whole story (no existing system can), but it does tell a somewhat more convincing story than a suggestion that Team X may be better than Team Y because Team Y has not had a terribly difficult schedule (while making no mention of Team X's schedule), coupled with a series of vague hypotheticals that could be equally applied to both teams.

Human rankers can give these hypotheticals a bit more weight through observation--we can watch and see if one of the teams is perhaps more interested in rolling its lines and learning its systems early in the season than running up scores, or if a team has a key player or two out hurt, etc.

Ultimately a mute point because they didn't do.

PageStat is one of the best systems out there, no denying that. But picking its evidence (that no one else can see) and not looking at anything else is, in fact, "cherry-picking" just as much as looking at stats.

Also, the thing PageStat doesn't do, as it says on the info page, is know/care anything about the team. There is a human factor involved in a lot.

But anyway, doubt any rhyme or reason that says East could possibly not be #1 will be listened to any way

[Potatohead9]

I am a Spud fan.....go figure right.

Now even if the Spuds would have won the SLP Tourny I would not have moved them up more than one spot in the rankings.......Until after Next weekend when they play Tonka at home on Friday then travel to Duluth to play East on Saturday. I didnt expect the Spuds to play as well as they did in the cities this weekend against EP, BSM and Wayzata. They kept it close or should I say Bitzer kept it close and gave them a chance to win. No pun intended Michael "Chance" Bitzer.
The Spuds lack a scoring threat......this shows by the second line the junior Uglem twins leading the team in scoring/points. They are playing a more physical game but if you dont put the puck in the net you dont win.
I couldnt agree more with Karl and east and I think DE did nothing but solidify their #1 ranking.....even if they drop a game in the next week unless its against MG, then possibly a #2.

[GoldenElbow]

Ah.....moot, not mute.

[karl(east)]

But anyway, doubt any rhyme or reason that says East could possibly not be #1 will be listened to any way

I'm not sure I understand what this means.